SLOPS TO LEAGUE'S PREDICTABILITY, which this week may have single-handedly converted a .500 record to a 16-23 record. Article here.
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PROPS TO DOUG FISTER'S IMPROVEMENTS. Don't look now, but Fister appears to be getting really good.
90% of pitchers go through plateaus, and then leap to the next one. But Doug Fister seems to be one of those birds who flies on a continuous line upward. Who knows where this guy is headed from here...
Friday, he locked down a 117 OPS+ offense that was jam-packed with deadly LH hitters. The Indians got only four hits and one walk off him, striking out six times.
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Ron Shandler has determined that The Magic K Line for finesse pitchers is 5.5, 5.6 strikeouts per game. Below that line, they might be solid. Above that line, they might star.
Doug Fister is far above that line, as finesse pitchers go. He has fanned 6.4 batters per game since his third start of the season.
He threw 14 swinging strikes on Friday -- mostly to LH hitters. His SwStr% last year was a mere 4.4% ... and here he is laying 12-13% on the 117-OPS lefty Indians.
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In 2010, he threw an unreal 67% fastballs, and yet he competed well using only that.
In 2011, not only did he add the big overhand yakker, but now has also taken to using a legitimate slider -- it slides in to LHB's by a good 8" while dropping another 8", and yet it's only 3 mph off his arm-side tailing fastball.
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Four pitches?! He was a load once he added the third. I can't believe this guy's arsenal right now.
He has ice water in his veins, he has an optical-illusion +4 mph on his fastball, he could snick the gnat off a wildebeest's haunch, and he is threatening TOR (#3 SP) territory.
I wouldn't bet you anything I was afraid to lose, that Doug Fister wasn't about to become a minor star in the AL.
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PROPS TO CARLOS PEGUERO who stepped forward, saw the pitch pop a parachute, kept his hands back, and then richocet'ed the pitch off the moon. A fitting tribute to Friday the 13th.
Am enjoying the Peguero/Wilson situation in left field. Gives us two chances to get something going there.
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SLOPS TO CHONE FIGGINS BATTING SECOND. In the 4th, Ichiro led off with a walk, and Figgins meekly bounced into a rally-killing DP.
Batting 9th, Figgins could chip in here and there. But as we all know, failing to give Entitled Vet Respect to Figgins could easily be step one in a clubhouse disintegration. So, like Wedge, we'll just hope things get better.
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SLOPS TO MICHAEL BRANTLEY who sno-cone'd Saunders' 7th-inning triple on a dead run. It came with a 4-2 lead, two runners on, and a few inches more would have probably left the M's up 7-2 a batter later. A Diamond Highlight that later meant the ballgame.
Who knows what Michael Saunders is thinking right now.
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PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK who is cutting off ground balls wayyyyyyy to his right. You know the type of play that 1B's make, where if they miss the ball, the 2B makes it anyway? Smoak does that. Often.
It creates the impression that the right side is completely sewn shut. Gorgeous.
It also means that you can afford to play 2B's who aren't gold glovers :coughKennedyAckleycough: .
I don't know what his UZR is, but I do know that Justin Smoak is a plus defensive first baseman. End of story.
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PROPS TO ERIKKK BEDARD who faces a LH lineup on Saturday.
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On yer feet,
Dr D
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.333/.462/.608/1.069 in 13 games, with 8 of his 17 hits for extra bases and a 2.0+ batting eye. The man just has slow Aprils, apparently. 3 weeks til his arbitration deadline is up. We'll see if they wait that long to call him up.
We can use all the help we can get.
~G
They call him up for the homestand at this point, anything to get people to keep showing up while Safeco seems about to set an all-time low for fan attendance.
And then wind up paying an extra, $3M or what is it, in 2013 when Ackley gets arbitration as a Super Two?
Who around here follows the arb process.
If Ackley is Super Two and gets arb in ?2013? that doesn't affect his arb awards in 2014ff, right...
The big blog would yell bloody murder at paying the extra $3? million in 2013 .... but we might keep in mind that a big name like AGone makes that $3-4M per month ... and the M's would be trying to get a similar ballclub impact (in context) with such an extra month of Ackley...
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I don't pretend to understand the entire arb system ... but IIRC, Ackley signed a 6-year contract. So, regardless of when he comes up, isn't he ALREADY signed through 2015? Doesn't that sort of negate much of the SOP impact of Super2?
From my perspective, the situation with Ackley is that (assuming he is a SUCCESSFUL MLB player), the club will likely be looking to renegotiate a longer term deal in 2014 ... like they did with Felix. If he flops, of course, the whole arbitration concern becomes a non-issue.
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On the question of League's pitch *selection* being to blame for his recent failures ...
Does location play *NO* part in this?
I looked at the game chart for the Friday the 13th game. League hit black low and away on both doubles and the Hafner homer. While I can't find hot/cold charts for everyone, I did manage to check Hafners - (which includes low and away as one of his hot zones).
Now, I watched Glavine pitch successfully for a decade, throwing as predictably as any starter in the game (pitch selection wise). And, he pounded the outside of the zone for a decade. BUT ... he changed eye level constantly. High and away ... low and away ... waste one 3 feet outside ... high and away.
I know the previous BS included two hit batsmen, so he was obviously throwing inside to them.
The middle ground for me is this. You CAN throw the same pitch over and over and over and still be a great closer. You CANNOT throw the same pitch at the same speed to the same SPOT over and over and over.
What I do NOT know - (since I don't get eyes-on looks nearly enough) - is ... what kind of MOVEMENT does League "normally" get on his FB ... versus what has he gotten in the last week?
Has there been a change in his movement metrics?
That said ... Hafner is hitting .340.
Why is it we laud Smoak when he goes out and clubs a pitch 2 feet outside for double ... but we dismiss the idea that ... well, the opposition hit good pitches today?
And, of course, the Cabrerra double wasn't crushed so much as it was horribly misplayed - (not that Bradley would've done better). But, I think the question of ... does League get the save if Langerhans or Saunders was in left is not unreasonable.
For me ... the "default" belief is that -- if a pitcher is painting the black and gets hit, that's just the reality of the game. Sometimes the hitters win the battle.
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Just as an aside to throw some more wood on the fire ... Gimenez has a catcher ERA of 5.98 at this point. Opponents have a .341 BABIP when CG is catching ... and opponents have hit 9 HRs in 7 games with him behind the plate. (Olivo has a normal .295 BABIP and only 15 HRs in 32 games).
There were accelerators in Ackley's contract, bonuses for reaching MLB faster. So even though he's got a major league contract, they'd still owe him more money if he comes up faster.
I just bought tickets for going out in June. Their tickets are fairly expensive. Filling the place instead of whatever we're doing now would help pay that paltry extra price.
Ackley went 4-for-6 today, taking his OPS over 1.000 for the month of May. I still don't expect to see him until June but I wouldn't mind being pleasantly surprised.
~G