Q. What's the template?
A. "Iron Mike" sinker-slider reliever, throws hard strikes, pitches to contact, lots of groundballs.
The Mariners have a fondness for mediocre, reliable strike-throwing NON HOME RUN pitchers in the 7th inning -- Sean White, Sean Green, Jamey Wright, etc.
Right now, we would all have a lot of fondness for any mediocre, reliable pitcher in the 7th. There have been nights at Boeing when I'd have given you $10 for a cold cup of coffee. Even if somebody had put a cigarette out in it. Especially if somebody had.
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Sully pointed out the M's collection of "colorful" pitchers - White, Green, Gray, 16 other guys and "almost Carlos Silva." HEH!
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Q. Is Gray distinctive within that template?
A. The Bill James way is to (1) identify the pitcher family and then (2) look for things out of alignment in the statistics.
This doesn't capture a pitcher, but it usually helps you get your arms around a pitcher.
The two things out of alignment in Gray's statistics:
- He gets few strikeouts for his velocity
- He throws only two pitches, those having only 5-6 mph difference
Gray throws everything at similar speeds, so they're going to make contact. It is at the front and back of the zone that pitchers get swings and misses.
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Q. Does Gray have a curve or change at all?
A. He doesn't, no. He throws a curve like 3% of the time and a change like 3% of the time, both with horrific run values. I think we can make a safe inference there.
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Q. Does SSI like his motion?
A. It's pretty, or used to be. He throws downhill, comes over the top with authority -- to watch him warm up you'd wonder whether he was a 3.50 ERA starting pitcher.
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Q. What is the shape of his fastball and slider?
A. The fastball sinks three inches and has a big arm-side swerve. The slider is meh for shape, according to F/X -- it doesn't drop much. But he throws it real hard. That's physics for you.
93-94 fastball, 87-88 "slider" actually more of a cutter. Sean White type.
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Q. Does that mean that lefties bash him?
A. That is a classic recipe for having LHB's stick you on a skewer and roast you over the pit. The fastball tails on to the lefties' bats. Dave Allen has demonstrated that armside run from a RHP is conducive to his being toasted by LHB's.
Guess what? Gray doesn't have a severe platoon split. He's moderately effective against RHB's and LHB's. Always has been.
I assume it's because he locates real well (and this location gets him no K's because he doesn't change speed).
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Q. Why hasn't he been in the majors more?
A. Never matched up with an org that wants a mediocre reliever, we guess.
There is "average-solid," a 55 player, average in a good sense. There is "average-mediocre," a 45 player, dime-a-dozen in a bad sense. His org's have considered him the latter.
It's probably a matter of taste.
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Wonder why Gray never threw a forkball. He coulda got rich.
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Q. Why would Zduriencik want a generic sinker/slider RHP?
A. Zduriencik does this a lot, takes Luke French when the entire baseball world wonders, "can't you get a dozen of those guys for nothing?" Jason Vargas, Aaron Laffey, Jamey Wright, etc. etc.
There are two possible reasons that Zduriencik might want a mediocre-average reliever at this point:
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(1) He thinks he sees something in Gray. As he did in Vargas and Aardsma, for example. -- OR --
(2) With Wilhelmsen, Ray, and Lueke/Cortes pitching 1 inning per week, and Wedge using in effect a 9-man pitching staff, the Mariners need a 5th reliever that Eric Wedge will actually use.
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Think you can take it from there? :- )
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Q. Will Eric Wedge use Gray?
A. It's tough. Wedge is old-school: he's got a doghouse, you can get it in quick, and you can stay there a long time.
Usually I scorn that about managers. In this specific case, it's understandable. Wedge is frantically trying to cobble a few wins, and every blinkin' night the lead is precious. It's one of the few times I've been glad to see a manager make nervous choices about his bullpen swaps. He's saved a lot of wins that way.
A good antelope is pretty skittish. It's a virtue in antelope. Wedge's 2011 bullpen is always sniffing the wind for encroaching .500 sluggers, ready to bolt if it catches a whiff.
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Gray will presumably have two or three games to raise Wedge's comfort level. If he looks comforting, he'll get a few more.
The odds aren't with Gray in a situation like that. But if he happens to start hot, he could become a Sean White type, and as you and I know, the 2011 Mariners need a couple of 'em. Quick.
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Cheerio,
Dr D