Obviously Pineda's delivery is unimprovable, from a command standpoint. Here, we're asking about his mechanics from a health standpoint.
To what extent do those two things overlap?
Give me 20 young pitchers with great K/BB's, against your 20 young pitchers with lousy CMD, and my group of pitchers will be much healthier.
I don't even need to look at their motions; the K/BB is a measure of their physical harmony. This is a Bill James axiom from the early '80's.
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Of course, some guys with great K/BB get hurt, like Mark Prior. Some guys with lousy K/BB also get hurt. We tend to pick Exhibit A to support our beliefs...
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Ghost asks Taro:
...whether taro is concerned with Pineda's mechanics the way he was a while back. Now that we've seen him pitch in Seattle.
I'm not a mechanical expert really...I know some basics and to my eyes, he looks butter smooth with few reasons to worry about undue stress on his arm...
but taro is better with this than me and he was worried last year at this time that Pineda wouldn't hold up. Is he still worried long term? That impacts my assessment.
Sandy would no doubt say "all good pitchers have stretches where they look as untouchable as Pineda is right now...the difference between the long-lived ace and the streaky guys like Jackson and Beckett and Burnett is consistency...Pineda hasn't proven that he can be consistent at this level yet"...it's a valid point.
Pineda could well have stretches where his command is only plus...not plus-plus-PLUS...and then he'd be what...a 3.25 ERA pitcher with a 3 K/BB and 8 K/9 and a few more dingers?
We don't know yet because we haven't seen it...so...I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I guess that this is the website in which Dr. D can jump in uninvited :- ) so while waiting for Taro's 'put, he'll chime in with his own:
All pitchers are health risks, life is rarely simple, and your best guess is going to come from looking at 7-10 variables, not one...
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=== CON ===
=== PRO ===
We know from Pineda's squirrel-hunting accuracy that his body parts are in synch.
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=== Scap-Load "Splits" Dept. ===
Here is an article with lots of pictures cherry-picked to show long-lived pitchers carrying their elbows low. (How many pitchers with low elbows got injured? Lots.)
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One thing that I'd like to investigate is the difference between these two sports motions:
The paths of the arms are going to be fundamentally different, and the movement inside the shoulder is going to be much different. But AFAIK the 'net rats haven't even begun to consider this.
Stand up, take a pitching backstroke with elbow high, and pause. Now come through with an overhand delivery, twisting the shoulder in its socket. Or, come through sidearm, like Pineda. Feel any difference?
Here's a guy who carries his elbow about as high as Pineda does, but who comes through sidearm:
;">I'd be happier if Pineda's elbow were a bit lower, like Randy Johnson's was, because I personally believe that the more underhand a human being throws, start to finish, the easier it is on his arm. (It would be easiest on Pineda's arm if he didn't pitch at all.)
But even if you grant that Motion X is higher-strain than Motion Y, the problem is that the whole system has jillions of moving parts. How loose are the guy's ligaments? How leveraged is he at points A, B, and C? etc etc.
Suppose Don Sutton came up now. Would his elbow be worrying?
Pineda is a pitcher, not a thrower, as evidenced by his command. His mechanics are not my favorite, but they are smooth and harmonious, and he comes through sidearm, like the Big Unit did, like Jered Weaver does.
FWIW, not much, I don't sense grind in Pineda's motion, as you do with a lot of guys.
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Pineda could get injured, like anybody could.
How do you balance the [easy, extreme velocity], the [smooth K/BB performance], and [the effortless dynamic impression] against [mechanics that 'net rat theory frets about]?
Your guess is as good as Zduriencik's :- )
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I still see Pineda as high risk, but its anybody's guess how long he lasts. Guess in the dark would be 3-5 years. Weaver and Sutton run their elbows more below shoulderline.
From my observation the two biggest factors in injury risk are #1 mechanics and #2 genetics. High K/BB guys are more likely to repeat their mechanics well, but if the original framework is off then you'd be repeating a high risk motion.
The key to the factors 1 & 2 that you mention are that they are individual to the given pitcher. There is virtually no way to tell which one is going to trump the other from one pitcher to the next.
Thats true on genetics, but from what I've seen the poor mechanics guys just never stay healthy in the long-term regardless of the other factors. Guys with bad mechanics almost always break down but some last longer than others. Its that unpredictable element that makes it impossible to tell how long Pineda will actually last.
Quibbles about "poor mechanics", and where Jered Weaver's elbow is, left aside for a moment...
Supposing that Michael Pineda stays real healthy. How does that affect your view of the high(er) elbow, if at all?
If Pineda's SHOULDER quickly manifests a Mark Prior situation, that will definitely push me a good ways into the O'Leary camp. Because Pineda is a pretty good example of a guy who looks like he's got all health indicators green EXCEPT the controversial elbow position.
Looks like a rare case where we've got the variable pretty well isolated.
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If Pineda has a long, healthy career it would shift my opinion on the high elbow. I can't see any other flaws, but I also haven't seen any super-slow motion video and am far from an expert.
I'm not expecting it though. Everytime I wonder if a Wainwright or Scherzer is about to be an exception, they go and get injured.
But its not a death sentence. Wainwright had three 200+ IPs MLB seasons before having his TJ and he pitched a lot in the minors too (with some long DL stints in between). Pineda hasn't had that minor league wear-and-tear on his arm so its entirely possible that he remains relatively healthy for the 5 years we control him.
That said, Pineda is a year-to-year guy. Hes not someone like Verlander or Felix that that you lock up to a long-term deal.