First part here. Great job making the defense's case, counselors. The D.A. steps up for cross.
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Q. What about Cust's 4 homers in Arizona? You think he lost bicep circumference between March and April?
A. ...
Point 1: Not waving off Cust's 4 HR's in spring ... had simply forgotten about them :- )
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Point 2: Good catch bro'. The homers in Arizona are a somewhat comforting piece on the other side of the scale. :cpoints:
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Point 3: RE: Spring Training Stats.
Not wanting to be stubborn, can't /cosign that March means much. Here, or in any player evaluation. Overall, or pertaining to any one skill, like PWR.
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There are any number of guys *who cannot play major league baseball* who hit HR's, and plenty of them, in Arizona. Mike Wilson hit 8-9 homers in Arizona... about four different times, I think.
I don't doubt that Cust can hit 6 straight homers in batting practice, for instance. The question is whether a hitter is explosive enough to generate power while being quick against quality Verlander pitches.
Jack Hannahan hit 4 homers this spring. What do we make of that?
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ST stats are a little like Cuban stats or AFL stats. I wouldn't build an argument off them.
Certainly not to the extent of saying "well, you think he was fine in March, but you think he lost his stroke in April." No, in March he was not fine. He was not playing major league baseball.
That said, Cust did go long in March, and that's worth considering from a physical-strength standpoint.
Most of the HR leaders in March are ML power hitters (partly because they get the full month's AB's, but still).
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Q. What I see is a picture of a guy who is seeing the ball as well as ever - but who is swinging over the top of EVERYTHING.
Why isn't the ball sailing? Because he hasn't hit a ball "squarely" all season. Maybe that means he's finished. But, he wasn't swinging over everything in ST, and that was less than a month ago.
A. Not wanting to pull rank... how many AB's of Cust's have you visually seen, m'man? :- )
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A LH hitter who is still in his prime ... when a RHP drives a fastball in there, the hitter will do these things:
A LH hitter who is physically done, like Griffey last year, when he gets a fastball, he'll do this:
The main reason I wrote the article is because to me, Jack Cust looks like he is doing the Junior out there.
The second reason: it apparently looked the same to the A's. It does not seem to be giving anybody pause for that, what the Oakland As' evaluation of Cust was. He was drawing tons of BB's for them. They evidently doubted that he would ever deliver anything else.
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Q. Why is he topping the ball more?
A. Because on many of his AB's, he is not even trying to hit home runs any more.
He has gone to a cut-down swing and this swing is much more level. Men on base, he's often trying to line the ball up the middle. That produces the LD's and hard two-bounce grounders.
You remember Russell Branyan hitting the ball straight up in the air? When Cust was going good, he had quite an uppercut.
Cust goes to his "just hit the ball somewhere" swing? With his stiff mechanics, a level swing tops the ball.
Seriously. The GB's reflect his dialing it down.
Here's a 2008 homer from Cust. Any of you guys remember seeing this swing in 2011?
Or watch the game tonight and tell me which pitch he does this on.
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Q. To what extent might luck play in?
A. It's true that he's only hit 14 fly balls this year. He might have 2-3 homers instead of 0, and then the HR/F ratio would be back to 15%, 20%.
This year's HR/F ratio is not the oyster off which you make this soup. Granted, that ratio might be 15% instead of 0.
The oyster is that he looks like Junior at the plate, that the A's powerflushed him, and that there's a ton of corroborating data that says he's done (first article).
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Supposing that Cust had hit 2 more home runs? Where is his 59 OPS+ then?
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Q. Is that for sure?
A. Nah. I figure a 75% chance that I'm reading his swing right, and a 25% chance that he'll fool me and go back to hitting one homer per week.
He doesn't look 40 years old out there. He just looks like he's lost something. He looked that way to the A's, too, a long time ago.
Supposing Cust hit his 25% chance and did return to a 100 OPS+. So what?
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BABVA,
Dr D
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In the prior roundtable there was an Ibanez and a Sexson counter argument. While I can agree with the Sexson counter, I don't believe the Ibanez counter argument because my recollection is that he was hurt. This also effected he outfield defense.
If Cust is healthy, I'm worried and I do agree that Oakland passing on Cust is very telling and not in a good way.
IIRC Ibanez refused to tell anyone about his injury and played through it silently. While he was struggling though, it looked like he was washed up and his power appeared completely sapped. I think his power numbers were inflated by doubles and triples. Then one day in June IIRC he started to crush the ball and finished with a pretty decent year overall.
Cust isn't killing the team in the OBP department and is still a tough out. He does deep into counts and doesn't get himself out. He still has the uppercut swing (I've been watching for it today) and his double off the monster was nice. His timing is a little off but I think he can correct it.
I don't cut him until Guti comes back and if he's still floundering two weeks from now, sure, give him the axe. Until then, lets see what he can do.
of Cust's double a few times. Actually looked quite a bit like the still photo in Doc's post.
Maybe it's a good sign.
As for the Tacoma options, they gave Tui extended time last year and he struck out 49 times in 50 games with .541 OPS. Carp started almost every game for a stretch in June and slugged .200. Mangini started pretty much every day the last two weeks and slugged .211. Halman started most of those games, too, and struck out 11 times in 9 games, slugging .172.
There's a reason they went with C. Peguero when Smoak was out. M. Wilson may be their best shot, but he's not on the 40-man roster, so somebody has to get cut for him to get promoted.
I think I have to side with Coug and say they probably have let Cust ride it out until Guti comes back.
That particular swing was a Ye Olde Custe baseball swing. Great to see, and it decided the game.
Good catch mate.
Good point Spec...about the 40 Man.
I had forgotten that.
But, Wilson stays hot. 2-4 with a homer tonight. I think I find him that 40 Man spot.
Although if you give Mike Wilson a chance, the 40-man cut takes care of itself. Jack Cust gives way to Wilson.
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They do also have to make room for Aardsma and Gutierrez shortly...
If they insist on carrying both Laffey and French on the 40-man, they do have to make up their minds about guys like Halman and Tui.... we know they like Paredes, Roe and Medina, so gotta do something...
40-man is always a traffic jam, and you do have to dip into AAA to improve your team during the season...
SSI:
IN Wilson, Aardsma, Guti
OUT Cust, Ray, Laffey (or Halman, Tui, or one of the raw young Rule 5 guys)
He hasn't seen action in an important situation during our little win streak and the team is riding Jamey Wright and Brandon League like rented mules. Right now there are only two relievers that Wedge seems to trust (maybe Pauley as well). Getting Aardsma back is going to be huge assuming he has his best stuff. This bullpen needs more arms that can get major league hitters out.
I don't get the fascination with Wilson and I won't get the fascination with Wilson until the scouts come around. He's been the definition of freely available talent for two years now and no one has wanted to take a chance on him. Maybe that will change but Greg Halman is more interesting to me because he has similar tools, is younger and can play CF. Did I mention that I think Halman is a longshot?
etowncoug:
In- Guti, Aardsma and AckleyOut- Cust/Langerhans, Ray and Wilson
Interestingly Coug, Wilson has played CF all three games since coming off the DL.
Halman has shown he can launch the ball....but not any skill set worthy of another call up.
Over the past two years ('09-'10) he had a 1:6 eye at AA, a 1:4.5 eye at AAA, and a 1:11(!) eye in his brief call up last September. (although in his 15 PA's this year in AA he had no walks and no K's)
Peguero has shown a improving eye trend over the last 4 years. In '08 at A+ it was 1:10. '09 at A+ again was 1:4. '10 at AA was 1:3. In '11 he's at 1:2 (not counting his call up). I like that in the guy.
I could live with him up and patrolling LF on a regular basis, with Milton going to DH (or on the DL which will soon happen).
But I would much prefer that to be Wilson. He's more skilled right now AND I feel confident that he is a 95-105 OPS+ guy, right out of the box.
We have an interesting 3 player dilemma in the works. Cust, Milton and Guti all have significantly high chances of never being a productive player THIS year. I remain hopeful that Cust has something leftin the tank, but that and 99 cents will get me a cup of coffee. I'm not laying too much credit to an opposite field floater double and one ball off the wall. He needs to rope a double down the line and lose one in the 12th row in RCF, then I'll start signing on. Cust has never hit more than 19 doubles in one season...2 in three days does not indicate he's back as our TTO.
Milton will break fairly soon. He's fragile. Beyond that.....he's not much of a bat right now. But bet on a physical issue, soon.
Guti? We may not see a productive Guti until the All-Star break. Oh, he will be up sooner than that......but not productively.
We need another OF/DH type...Pretty soon we're going to have call on one. Time to see what Wilson has (or invest in Peguero futures).
And I get the feeling, for some stupid reason, that we may see the Wilson experiment. It's time. Let's see if he has the chops. If not, wave goodbye to him and wish him luck.
I got an email from a person with excellent knowledge of Wilson:"Wilson can't hit good velocity and is a DH."
Maybe they are wrong, but I've never heard a baseball insider talk about Mike Wilson as being anything more than a warm body. It sounds like the only reason the M's keep him around is because they like him and he is a pretty good AAA player who doesn't mind filling in in AA when needed.
Tacoma has been in desperate need of a warm body in CF and were sticking Peguero out there. I doubt Wilson is much of anything with the glove.
I can't get past the fact that 30 MLB front offices have had the opportunity to bring Wilson into the fold at zero cost and 30 front offices have passed, multiple times. To give a fringe, RH pull happy, DH tons of AB's in Safeco is not my idea of a good time. I'd rather give the AB's to Cust.
If Milton gets hurt or needs a DH, stick Langerhans or Giminez in LF. When Guti gets back, have a 3 man rotation at LF and DH (Saunders, Bradley and Cust).
I don't see giving a guy you have no faith in a chance.
Cuz I'd like to find that cafe and get all my drinks there...it's about half what I pay for plain coffee...LOL
Actually....
Ergo our difference in opinion: I do have some faith in M. Wilson's chances.
We have probably witnessed the best streak (certainly power-wise) of Langerhans' career.....that is his upside. There's my little faith. I suspect it may be Wedge's, too....considering how many PA's he's been getting. I have faith that Milton will get dinged up pretty soon, just betting on form. No insult intended, he just isn't very durable. The sooner he isn't playing LF the better for his future AB's. I have very little faith in Cust finding a 25 HR stroke soon. I hoping he does, but not betting on it. A TTO who hits 14 HR's and 19 doubles is less than Jose Lopez. And he can't field a position. Cust isn't absolutely terrible right now because he draws walks. However, if he can't hurt you deep he may be challenged by more and more pitchers. He has to go deep to be productive. We're a sixth of the way through the season and I think he has one ball off the wall.
I've got a handful of more games to give him the benefit of the doubt. But soon, I'm readly to release him.