a) I didn't really "declare victory" re: Saunders vs. Gutierrez...I do think Saunders is personally killing us so far on team DER...but my point was...even if Saunders is an average CF...you still lose when comparing him to Guti. You assumed that Safeco would make things EASY for a CF...based on one good year for Randy Winn, if I recall. :) Safeco does not make things easy...it might influence things a bit, but it's not going to turn an average CFer into the monster that Gutierrez statistically was. I think Saunders...even assuming a lot of improvement as he gets comfortable with the position...proves that Safeco won't turn your pumpkins into carriages in CF. Saunders is an OK outfielder...Guti is a great one. We need Guti out there...that's how I see it.
But it's not the -8 UZR in CF that annoys me with Saunders...it's the geometric routes and really late breaks he keeps getting...and the lack of instincts on whether to dive or put the glove down for a shoestring catch or slide...on whether to wait by the wall for a jump play back for the ricochet, etc. He's been making all kinds of really obvious mistakes out there. The good news is...the obvious stuff should get less problematical as he gets used to the position...but it means he has ZERO chance of putting up a +15 UZR in CF any time soon...he's too raw and does not possess Guti's natural gift for sightlines and jumps.
PROPS TO WHOEVER SAID HITTING IS CONTAGIOUS - For three-point-two innings Tuesday, not only the M's fans but also Eric Wedge were thinking the classics (those being, brown bags over their faces).
Three dreary innings, culminating in Jack Wilson not remembering or not CARING how many outs there were, when getting doubled off by a lazy fly ball. I mean, what difference does it really make? We're not going to knock me in from 1B with two outs anyway.
GRRRrrrrrr.
Two outs, nobody on, Miguel Olivo doubled, and Justin Smoak stepped in.
Phil Coke, a talented LHP, worked Smoak carefully. The book on Smoak is not to let him beat you, not to center a fastball to him, to walk him if you have to. Coke did this. He threw four pitches, only one a fastball, and the FB was down in the zone.
But as good as Coke was -- and he'd locked the M's down for 4 IP -- Smoak was better. He worked the count to 2-1, Coke came back with a changeup way down, at the knees.
Smoak dipped his back knee and put one of those drop-dead-gorgeous swings on it, the kind where the bat hits him in the butt on the followthrough. The ball went high and far, over the fence.
The Mariners looked around at each other, blinked, and the next inning raced up to the plate for a single, double, single, and then a triple for a 4-spot.
Even a single real scary hitter can change a ballclub's confidence level.
...............
:: best winning smile :: Hey, who remembers that back in March, there was one blog givin' yer Tomorrow's News Today on one Mr. Justin Smoak, Franchise Hitter...
Of course, it was Capt. Jack that chose Smoak over --- > Jesus Montero and it was Capt. Jack who actually acquired him, so SSI will share a little credit with Zduriencik, it supposes.
One thing that Jack Zduriencik believes in, is in game-changing talent such as Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Justin Smoak, and Michael Pineda. The Committee was into MLB(TM) Civics like Washburn and Batista; Capt Jack is into Talent.
There's been way too much $/WAR navel gazing and way too little Stars & Scrubs transliteration. Get you four or five Smoaks, Pinedas, Ackleys and Paxtons and then we'll talk $/WAR to finish up the project.
At the time of the Lee trade, $/WAR enthusiasts were recommending trades for handfuls of low-minors players. The more club-controls 2.5 WAR guys to underpay, don'cha know. Zduriencik, thankfully, had the right compass. It's the five guys at the very top of your roster! Those are Job One. After that, any pokey can "be efficient" with payroll and put a contender together.
April losses aside, gentlemen, Jack Zduriencik is putting the Stars in place. It isn't every franchise that has Felix, Pineda, and Smoak. Like, this one, last May, for instance.
.............
Smoak's OPS+ this season is 166. That woulda been #3 in the AL last year (Cabrera, Hamilton, then Smoak).
- .340/.421/.580 - Smoak 2010, after his Sept callup (57 PA)
- .288/.394/.525 - Smoak 2011 (71 PA)
That's 128 PA's, 32 games, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 8 doubles, 19 BB and 22 K... the equivalent of 30 HR's, 120 RBI, and 100 walks per full season.
.
PROPS TO THE M'S SABER CREW who put an informative stat on TV: Saunders has had 0-2 counts in 40% of his plate appearances this year.
Think about that.
.............
It's good news. It salves my previous wounds over Saunders' 2:13 and now 3:16 EYE ratios. It's actually surprising that Saunders' EYE isn't even worse than that, if he's down 0-2 so much. You strike out on pitches that are thrown with two strikes, you know.
:shrug: so Saunders has to arrive in the batter's box ready to punish first-pitch gimme strikes. It only takes two or three homers before they stop taking liberties.
So, a new SSI strategy: see what happens with Saunders' first-pitch adjustment before we panic.
..............
They just started putting UZR up. Saunders is +27 per year in LF and -8 per year in CF. Which tells you how useless both figures are at this point - not unusual for April UZR's.
Dr. D mentioned that he hadn't visually been impressed with Saunders in CF in the first two weeks. Ghost replied by declaring victory and that Saunders should be out of CF. :- ) Whoa doggie.
In the first place, Saunders could be and probably is just now finding his comfort level in CF. Check him at the All-Star break.
In the second place, check him at the All-Star break.
.
PROPS TO BRANDON LEAGUE who cranked it to another level Tuesday, averaging over 97 mph with his fastball.
What's more, League is throwing a 97 sinker -- his FB sinks -5 inches, more than "groundballer" Jamey Wright's fastball sinks. David Aardsma, you might recall, is the opposite: a guy you couldn't hit a grounder on if you tried.
League threw 5 splitters and got 3 swinging strikes on them. Right now Brandon League is pitching like the best closer the Mariners have ever had, dating back to 1977.
97 with sink, and a wipeout forkball? Bryan Harvey didn't do that. I guess the dude likes the ninth inning, huh?
.
SLOPS TO ERIK BEDARD'S SLOW START. He's started four games and is personally 0-4. The M's aren't going to be able to run down the .500 mark without his help.
He wins Wednesday, and then we get the automatic win with Pineda Thursday, and could talk about .500. Time for this guy to torch a lineup.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
Easily the most astute Mariner blogger of 2011. You, my friend, have been on a roll. Those Jeff Clement as Jim Thome posts are long forgotten (oh wait, did I bring that up? Sorry).
Seriously, you are nailing it this year.
Remember Jeremy Reed looked like another Jim Edmonds playing CF in Safeco. In fact, when has a Mariner CF ever looked bad defensively?
I'm with you Doc in regards to Saunders in CF. I think, given a bit of time, he can be a league average CF - maybe even minor plus.
I think Langerhans is a complete disaster in CF.
I think the Ryan/Wilson infield is proving to be a dismal failure - (though I suspect a Wilson/Kennedy MI could be a major plus).
The part I think most people - (and to a degree, even you Doc) - just aren't quite getting is that the 2010 club had a 79 OPS+ and a 100 ERA+. The 2011 club has an 88 OPS+ and a an 89 ERA+. The reason for that drop in ERA+ can 'mostly' be laid at the feet of a defense which has plunged from elite to catastrophic. And the ERA+ is actually OVER-stating the run-prevention, because the error to unearned ratio for the Ms is atrocious.
You want to make this club better? You put Wilson back at short - Kennedy at second, and let Ryan be the guy playing 3 times a week instead of 5. (Except, I think Jack is hoping Ryan can "become" a .650 hitting defensive whiz SS until Nick is ready - so that ain't likely).
In the OF, put Saunders in CF against 100% of RHP, Bradley DHing against 100% of lefties, get Langerhans as much defensive time in LF as you can manage, and treat Langerhans "as if" he is a switch hitter, (since for his career, he basically has no split to speak of).
The pitching "could" be elite. But, it won't be elite, unless the great defensive recession is ended.
In truth, it might be too late to "save" Wilson. I think getting demoted to 2B hurt his pride. But, I think Wilson knows Ackley is in the wings and likely coming soon ... so, he's likely also got a bad case of short-timers-disease ... probably feeling pretty darned expendable at this point. He's probably doing the best he can, given being utterly depressed about his future.
The "ideal" way back was an ERA+ of 120 and an OPS+ of 90. Well, ain't no way this club is going to manage an ERA+ of 100 if they continue getting .670s DER.
Statistically, Reed was nothing special in CF...he had a number of highlight reel catches, but his UZR was not all that impressive career in CF:
2005: +13.9 but...
2006: -5.5
2008: 3.0
Anyone can have a fluky good year by UZR...the statistic itself is very prone to wild fluctuations. But -5.5 right after +13.9 definitely reveals that Safeco wasn't making Reed look that gifted.
BTW, in his brief tour of CF, KGJr. was not very good even at Safeco...he was always more flash than substance on defense, but it's not like Safeco turned him into a godlike figure out there.
Why not Wilson's pride as well.
Man, if it took being demoted for Wilson to have his pride hurt, then so long and fair well. Z is tired of injured/fragile ballplayers. It's probably why he took Cust over Branyan, although I'd have rather taken my chances with Russell's bat and back.
Sandy, you think Wilson at SS and Kennedy at 2nd is better than Ryan/Kennedy, with injured pride guy making his millions playing an important backup role?
I know Wilson has had an impressive career in the bright lights of Pittsburgh, but criminy, how about a little less prima donna around here? Wilson has earned himself a utility infielder's role as a Mariner - maybe. For his money, he should be happy as hell.
3rd try with CAPTCHA. Fingers crossed.
Half the time I'll get the captcha screen where two of the letters/numbers are unreadably the exact same color as the background or are about the size of a flea's knees. LOL
Anyway, I think Ryan and Wilson BOTH need to go. I'd be starting Luis (good AB" Rodriguez and Adam Kennedy for now...and when you call up Ackley, Kennedy gets to steal Figgins' ABs somewhat. Because Ryan looks utterly futile at the plate (as expected) and only OK on defense and Wilson, although hitting better of late, doesn't look comfortable at second. Keep Wilson around to be the defensive replacement for Lu-Rod...but as Earl Weaver would do...if your waterbugs aren't hitting...use the bats. Get Ackley and his kuldgy second base glove and Lu_Rod and his only-OK defense at short in there to do some hitting please.
but check out those numbers in the mid 90's including a +32 in 96. Granted those numbers are less accurate than today's less-than-perfect numbers, but Kingdome-Junior was as good as Safeco-Gutierrez.
Most of the ordinary uberstat fielding metrics for Griffey have been near average on the whole...some up years, some down years...are you looking at TZ?
Of course, Jr. Griffey did have some very good years (and always had the talent to be a great fielder)...I think some of the flashy stuff though was better on camera than it was in the box score with him.
I'm not sure how accurate it is, but it shows what your (if I'm reading you correctly) and my general idea of Griffey's defense was. Great for a couple years, average most years until his knees were shot & he gained weight, and fun to watch because of the flash.
I didn't actually realize FG now went that far back. That's good to know.
My own attempts at statistical analysis of defense (using a top-down team-based approach, rather than and individual zone-based method) show Griffey as a wildly variable but overall average fielder until his knees went, when he became a LOUSY one. Over ten full seasons as a CF from 1990-1999, he had defensive batting averages (a way of putting the defensive value on a familiar scale....not an actual measure like DER but a normalized measure like EqA) of .279, .304, .244, .280, .382 (!!), .290, .266, .255, .241, .240
Fun to watch...made a lot of great catches...and missed a lot of doubles he should have caught...some years...he was awesome...some years it averaged out and he was average...some years, he cost you some runs. Then his knees started going and by 2003 his defensive batting average was .189 (!)
In my defense, those were Jeff Clement swing as Jim Thome swing posts. :- )
It's worth clarifying that although James Paxton's stroke is Hall of Fame caliber, SSI does NOT pronounce him a can't-miss MLB smart bomb ready to drop, like Michael Pineda was last September. Mechanics are one thing, the finished product another ...
Jeff Clement's swing is massively compact and powerful, but Justin Smoak added the hand-eye, the pitch recog and the fluidity of approach that made him a Best Bet not just to look good, but to feel good...
If somebody wants a foam-rubber bat to beat me with, Jose Lopez would be a good choice. Still have no idea what the holdup is there.
Dustin Ackley fails, that will be another Best Bet that came up snake eyes. That kid is quick to the pitch and he can sting the ball.
:daps:
LOL, anyone who bats above .500 on their hometown predictions, in their heart, is not a true fan. If a .335/.455/.676 AAA line from your team's #3 overall pick *doesn't* spark unrealistic optimism, then you're probably not going to get much enjoyment from following the team. A large part of being a fan is hopes and the realization of those hopes.
I've followed the good Doctor for over a dozen years, and here's where I see the scorecard standing....
BIG HITS (DOV optimism correct and far above others' expectations): Jeff Fassero, Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo
BIG MISSES (DOV optimism incorrect and far above others' expectations): Paul Spoljaric, Scott Sanders, Antonio Perez, Jose Lopez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Matt Tuiasosopo
MIDDLE GROUND: Paul Abbott, Robert Ramsay, Brett Tomko
NEUTRAL (high DOV optimism of players others consider as Top 100 prospects): Ken Cloude, Jose Cruz Jr., Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, Rafael Soriano, Jeremy Reed, Chris Snelling, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, Justin Smoak, Michael Pineda, Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley
I'd say Fister and Wilhelmsen are the only current Mariners that could fall into the "big hits" or "big misses" categories. Moderate skepticism of most of the other borderline prospects/players.
Who've I missed?
is the difference between (1) agreeing with your first take, that Yuniesky Betancourt has a 33% chance of impact in the bigs, -- vs. -- pointing at the bleachers and (2) saying that Justin Smoak and Michael Pineda have 90% plus shots of becoming major league stars. :- )
You're forgetting dozens of epic flame wars, such as when Gumby mocked me in 1995 for announcing that Randy Johnson was his generation's Sandy Koufax ...
... the war with Pitch over Dallas McPherson ...
... the March 2001 arguments over Ichiro (as well as every April between me and the blog-o-sphere over Ichiro between 2002 and 2008)...
If you're not even putting Tim Lincecum in my "Big Hits" category I want a new scorekeeper. Go back and check all of my writeups on every 1st-round pitcher in that draft, chump -- Morrow, Lincoln, Miller, etc. The guy's NZT-fueled micro memory remembers me liking Antonio Perez okay, but intentionally blanks out the Lincecum Grand Saga...
to read your "Neutral" list, you'd think that everybody had the same opinion of Justin Smoak that I did. That, and Pineda, those were the winter's big debates. On your scorecard I get zero for either. No wonder the STATS AOL board was such a food fight :- )
And I had you from the opening pitch in that 20-team matchup...
But I'd give him a good 20%, 30% chance of becoming a good SP in the majors, and he'd be at the top of my list of guys to try if Bedard needs to go to the pen.
I seem to recall being shocked by some heavy scouting-based offensive expectations after Betancourt was already in the majors, but perhaps those came from the forums.
Smoak was an 11th overall pick, traded for Cliff Lee, and rated the #13 prospect in baseball. I'm not going to give any more credit on him than I'd discredit for Jeremy Reed.
In retrospect, you and Gmoney were definitely early on Michael Pineda, so he gets bumped up to the "big wins" category.
The OFTers/bloggers were going against the consensus arguing against Randy Johnson and Ichiro. Definitely a "big miss" for them.
This list was limited to fan/hope-based Mariner calls. Thought that was pretty clear from line one. I'd say the non-Mariner calls speak for themselves.
You did have me by 5 points in the 20-team matchup - after publically conceding defeat before the first pitch. :)
I think wilson was and is still a significantly better SS than Ryan will ever hope to be.
And I get the idea that dumping prima donnas might be a good organizational imperative.
BUT ...
The reality is that 99% of all pro athletes are prima donnas. They have been "the best" since grade school, and if they make it all the way to starting at the highest level, that likely means they've never had any reason to be the least bit humble about their ability at any point.
It's one thing to suggest a strategy for dealing with prima donnas. It's another to pretend they don't exist and that you can get away pretending that just because someone makes a million bucks a year that aren't human any more.
Regardless of whether you make 10k, 50k or 8 million, there IS a "predictable" psychological response from a person if you: A) demote them ... and then, B) Tell them you're interviewing for their position they've been demoted to, so they shouldn't bother putting any pictures of family on their desk, because they'll likely be sent packing in two months.
Is there ANY profession where you could "expect" an employee to be 100% fully engaged under those circumstances?
Jack Wilson did not whine to the press about being demoted. He didn't go out of his way to be a jerk about it. But, he was EMBARASSED after making two errors at a position he is unfamiliar with (and then botched his manager trying to cover for him).
My mom was a kick-butt executive secretary for 20 years. Then, due to corporate shake-up, she was moved into "Capital Recovery", and was forced to become a financial expert in her 40s. THEN, when that job was surplussed, in order to stay employed, she was forced to become an engineer in her 50s. And because she was incredibly smart and had an incredible work ethic, she pulled off those changes in jobs. But, she went from being superb at her job to excellent to merely competent. So, her final years at the company, she literally hated going into work each day. She got more money as an engineer than if she would've remained a secretary ... but she opted for early retirement, instead. If she could've remained a secretary, she might have worked into her 70s, and been a valuable asset to her company.
In the end, if you want to cut all the prima donnas from the roster, then the only ones on the field come game time are going to be the ball girls.
for dealing with Prima Donnas. Let them know you value their talents, which is the reason you wooed them with big contracts. Let them know precisely which talents you especially appreciate, and where these fit in the larger context of the team. Re-assure them you value them for what they have proven they can do, and put them into positions into which you believe they can excel. As Bill James noted, nothing destroys confidence more than asking a player to do something he is incapable of doing.
So, I expect the Mariners went to Jack Wilson and said something like, "We don't know that you can stay healthy, and we aren't going to expect you to. But we know you can play great defense when you are healthy, and we are going to need someone who can play 2nd primarily, and some shortstop, and we are going to give you plenty of rest to help you where you struggle most: staying healthy. This is where you will best help our club be successful. This is why we paid highly for your and why we value your contribution to our ball club. Thank you for everying you do here. Things can change in an instant, but we need you for an entire season if we are going to win this division. You'd like that, wouldn't you Jack? win a division. sip some champagne, maybe pour some all over my bald head?"
Z and company certainly see something in Ryan over Wilson that you aren't seeing, Sandy. I wonder what it is, if not the health thing. I know Jack thinks the world of Wilson, based on his comments at last year's LL/USSM gathering: he works tirelessly in the offseason, and he pretty much sounded like Dr. D in adding he's a guy you want to go to war with. But I gotta say that aside from last night's shakiness, I don't remember watching an M shortstop go to the hole and fire to first like I've seen Ryan do this season sinc ethe days of ARod (Yuni is pretty much a blur to me). But I also remember early last season thinking, "Man, Wilson sure sucks with the bat, but he sure plays a sweet shortstop."
Captcha looks readable, so I'm going to trust the typos and assorted errors are cleaned up and post this puppy.
is two more seasons of club control after this one, whereas Wilson's contract expires and they aren't interested in re-signing him if they can get comparable results from Ryan (already signed for 2012 at $1.75M).
One of them was going to have to be the Ackley stopgap and the other was going to be the Franklin/Triunfel stopgap. Based on the contract status, Wilson was the obvious choice to move to the presumptive-Ackley position while Ryan mans the someday-Franklin-or-Triunfel position.
Especially with Kennedy hitting the ball decently, I think Wilson will be gone-gone-gone when Ackley comes up.
But Spec., what does that have to do with 2011? Both are under contract, both are available for SS duty. Both can play 2nd base while Ackley is in the minors. If Wilson is the superior choice, better to get the most out of him: money wise, win in 2011 wise, etc.
But then, I subscribe to the Z wants to win now theory. If you don't, then it makes sense to settle Ryan into that position now, I suppose, if you think he's inferior to Jack.
Wow, Captcha is real clear away from my laptop, or did someone mess with the sensitivity settings?
Sorry to dredge up old history of hits and misses, although I agree that the discussions regarding these players were much more nuanced than a mere "thumbs up" or "thumbs down" go.
Actually, Doc, the reason I brought up Clement, truth be told, is that I had already compared you to Neihaus, and last night I was thinking I hadn't read such great baseball analysis since the old Bill James abstracts. Sheesh, I didn't want everyone to think I was some sort of jemanji sycophant. I had to toss in an egg somewhere. :-)
I think the club is thinking more about 2012 than 2011.
As spec notes, Wilson isn't in future plans, (age & fragility working against him).
Ackley is CLEARLY not going to be playing SS ... and Franklin is too far away. If you're hoping for Franklin in 2013, then a 2-year cheap rental is perfect.
As for Ryan playing second -- after the debacle of the 2010 Figg/Lop flip-flop, I think the club was wise (in the long term), in not even visiting moving Ryan to second, just so they could move him back in 2012. (I think with Figgy and Lopez, there was a hope that Lopez would work out and both were going to be a part of the future).
I also think you want to see Ryan at SS *this* year, so you can make an informed decision on whether to cut your losses next year. It's one thing to scout a player, examine his stats, and decide to pick him up. It's another to watch him every day and see how he responds on a daily basis.
I think, also, that Z had *so* much confidence in Ryan that he went out and got both LROD and Kennedy. I also think that is Z is planning to move Ackley up THIS year, (which I think likely), that he wants to see how Ackley meshes with his DP partner for 2012.
Anybody who wants to go back and figure out my slash line, that's fair enough, as long as it isn't Justin doing the scoring ;- )
Thanks for the support CafCo m'man. The kudos are cheering, false though they may be :- ) and the board is considerably better for having your ideas here amigo...
Now how about a decent Yahoo trade proposal?! ......
You know, it's a funny thing ... of the four biggest M's blogs, three of them are indeed sycophantic... we don't mean it in a pejorative way, but USSM, LL, and PI are dominated by one-line, "Teach Us More, Sensei" dittos...
At Baker's site, MC, and here, that is (to my eye) almost completely absent, and in fact your post reflects a desire to *avoid* the appearance of too-quick agreement...
Not that Geoffy and Jeffy C. necessarily deserve the same unwavering agreement that, say, USSM gets >:-} but it is interesting to muse on why the sites shake down into Leader/Follower sites vs. whatever this and the Times are...
Hey, I said from the start that .500 is a good score, the scorecard wasn't meant to inspire a defensive reaction at all. There's something to be said for going on the line for a Doug Fister and seeing "frontline starter" when everyone else pegs them as filler, and then being right about it.
Anyone can predict greatness for Top 50 prospects and 1st round picks. Those calls mean nothing, everybody else is saying the same thing.
Seeing a journeyman 28 year old minor league mopup guy and being able to say they'd be a successful SP - that's where you set yourself apart from the rest. You don't see optimism like that on sites like USSM. It's not like you're launching a handful of darts and taking credit for the couple that hit; it's about one or two carefully chosen players per season.
Of course some, if not most, of these players will fail; if they weren't high-risk players, the prediction/call would be worthless. Going .500 with Spoljarics, Henrys (forgot the big one!), and Cabreras is far more impressive than going .750 with Tillmans, Joneses, and Ackleys.