Seattle Sports Insider

Three True Outcomes minus the homers?

Posted by

4/9/11

Coug sez,

Hustle Board ?

It looks like the offense will be painful to watch this year because while we are taking a lot of pitches (good) we aren't capable of doing real damage when we get into favorable counts. The Mariners were absolutely mulched by an average pitcher last night who did not have his best stuff. This team is patient but we don't do much damage when we get our pitch.

I wonder how long it will take for teams to begin pounding the strikezone against the Mariners.

SSI sez,

I don't imagine that Smoak, Cust and Bradley will finish with 0, 0, and 0 homers. (The first seven games, they have in effect been playing with 0-homer MOTO players.)

.........

But without a doubt, this is the game-within-a-game to watch, the next two weeks. ... assuming that pitchers start getting more of the plate -- centering fastballs to avoid walks -- the question is how much the M's will sting them. If you are a pitcher, do you give in on 3-1 to Jack Cust, saying "Okay, show me something" ? I don't.

Still, the book on the 2011 M's could easily evolve to, "make them beat you," and if so, it's on Smoak & Co. to do something when the pitchers give in. If they did, the book would evolve again.

..........

Several of the Yankee lineups of the 1990's (before ARod and Giambi) lacked 30-homer men,such as this one -- they'd have a high OBP, a guy with 28 homers, and a couple guys with 22.

Here were the 1996 Yankees' homer leaders:

Bernie - 29
Tino - 25
O'Neill - 19
Sierra - 11
Half the lineup had 2, 2, 5, 8 homers

And their mega-bucks ballclub finished 12th in homers, a 100 OPS+, but won the division on pitching. You could go through baseball history and find a lot of pennant winners that had poor HR totals and even poor offenses.

...........

It won't work, just going up to the plate with the bat glued to your shoulder. But that's not what Jack Cust does. Neither is it what Smoak and Bradley and Figgins do. They are trying to force the pitcher to throw their pitch. Though the M's have lost five in a row, we've got to give them credit for the things that they are doing right.

It's possible for Smoak and Cust to hit 25 homers, Bradley 18, and the M's win 90 games. But they're going to have to start knocking in some runners, no doubts there.

The 2010 Mariners were led by Branyan with a mere 15, and as a club they hit only 101 homers. If the 2011 Mariners hit only 101 homers, it will be a painful season again for sure.

Supposing that the Mariners are not capable of punishing an 88 fastball out-and-over, then sure. Those walks are going to stop. But I don't imagine they are.

We'll see,

Dr D

Comments

'96 Yanks

I don't mean to beat this horse anymore.....but I will. Hope you'll endulge me, Doc.
In '96 Bernie had 62 X-base hits, Tino 53, O'Neill 54, And while Sierra had only 29...he platooned at DH with Cecil Fielder, who had 21. So they got 50 from the DH. AND....Duncan had 42, Jeter 41.
You can win without tons of taters. However, you still need one guy who can punish misses (Jack Clark with the old Cards, Tino and Bernie above)....AND you need 4-5 guys with 40+ x-base hits. 2 should be above 50.
Do all that....and then all those walks = runs.
Langerhans can't to it (nice ofer zero last night with 4 BB's though). Saunders stinks against lefties. Figgins? Surely you jest! Olivo/Gimenez? Uh-uh! Ryan...Nope. Jack Wilson/Kennedy? Not wilson, but Kennedy has been over 40 3 times in his career. Last time was '09. So....With the current line-up, Kennedy has to reach back and replicate his career type best, Cust must smash, Milton must smash, and Smoak must smash...and Ichiro needs to do it again (he's has 39 and 46 the past two years). No margin for error.
Homers ain't everything....but you have to rattle some walls.
The Figgins keep and the Langerhans/Saunders platoon are bad decisions exactly for that reason.
moe

SLG was #9 of 14 teams

Oh sure, they knocked runners in. Their slugging % was not last; it was five spots from the bottom.
If the Mariners finish last in 2B's and HR's then of course they'll be terrible.

Good point on the 1996 Yankees

I would submit to you the fact that while the 1996 Yankees weren't a team that hit tons of Home Runs, they hit enough doubles to move folks around the base paths and had a line up without holes. There team was pretty well rounded and finished the season with a very respectable team OBP.
The Mariners have Saunders/Langerhans, Wilson and Ryan. That hurts. The top half of the Mariners order needs to rake in order to make up for this. Ackley will relieve some of this pressure but he is two months away. Bradley, Cust and Smoak are good hitters but I wouldn't be afraid to challenge them with a fastball on an 0-0, 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2 especially with the bases empty..

Good point back atcha

The 22-18-15-12 homer leaderboard shtick would not work as well with four automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup.
Point cheerfully conceded.

Walkball

I think you're coming now to the point I've been stressing about from a long time. Walkball cannot be the main purpose to win ballgames and when opponents realize your aim is just that one you're done. Patience at the plate - as showed by those old good Yankees you named - is a good thing but you should be able to hit the ball sooner or later.

Right... BB's don't win by themselves...

But SSI does not seem to be able to cut through the noise here.
The hustle board is not about walks....

Attrition

Righto, Doc.
The Hustle Board is about attrition. If the opposing starter goes 5 and 2/3 rather than 7 innings...over the course of a season that means something in terms of runs scored. The faster tyou get the starter to 100 pitches.....the better off you are.
But....You still have to whack your guys who just walked home.
Langerhans and Saunders have 75% of our homers right now. VERY bad mojo, that!
Saunders, by the way, looks fairly comfortable against righties.
And I've bashed Langerhans at every turn.....but he's not the guy killing us. He's doing OK. Just to be fair, you know....
moe

Well now, The Hustle Board sez . . .

Jays threw 214! pitches and only got 26 outs; Ms threw 157
L-Rod (will Figgins get "Wally Pipped"?)
Saunders (played 3 nights in a row, with 4 H and 2 BB; season OPS up to .792)
Smoak (season: 7 BB, 8 K; .381 OBP)
Lueke & Wilhelmsen hitting 95 and missing bats (ended 8th & 9th with swinging strikes)
All's cool for two innings, anyway.