=== SLOPS: Saunders vs Langerhans ===
SSI was surprised, and not pleasantly, that MLB(TM) veteran Ryan Langerhans was playing over the overhauled Michael Saunders. I mean, what is Ryan Langerhans' future? You might as well say, "well, we don't have anybody in center field tonight, but pretty soon Gutierrez might be back."
This after your one ML-ready outfielder just now had a breakthrough moment, and just hit an HR what?, last game I think. Wasn't that the one run in an 8-1 loss or something?
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Only thing I could figure: it's a political nod, a clubhouse move.
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Nay verily. Geoff Baker gives the inside scoop.
After the entire Mariners org worked with Saunders to achieve his Big Breakthrough --- >
--- > then Eric Wedge continued to think very little of Michael Saunders, that Saunders would not be coming north if Gutierrez were here, and Saunders isn't playing because Wedge doesn't think he's an MLB-caliber ballplayer. Insiders welcome to correct if Baker's read is mistaken.
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ==
1. This is aggravating.
1b. It reminds me -- faintly -- of Mike Hargrove's imperious scoffing against Shin-Soo Choo when Bill Bavasi tried to press Hargrove to play Choo. Hargrove let him make one (1) error in CF, used it as an excuse to vote Choo off the island, and then talked about it emphatically to the press.
Didn't say it's the same thing. Said it reminded me.
1c. It sounded, in the booth in LA, like Jack Zduriencik isn't super high on Saunders, either. "We're going into opening night without our closer ... and center fielder."
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2. Note that no other media guy in Seattle would have been willing to annoy Eric Wedge, and to do his job in providing you with The Truth. Media folks tend to reserve that "The People Deserve To Know" for times when it costs them little and gains them much. Baker is not one of those folks.
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3. Perhaps time will bear out Eric Wedge's judgment and Michael Saunders will never hit in the big leagues.
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4. But wow. He's not worth a couple weeks' observation?
What did you spend all the coaching time for, if a Big Change was going to "take" in spectacular fashion, and then you were going to say No?
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5. This move costs the Mariners a lot of defense in center field.
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True, it's not the worst thing for Saunders to go down to AAA and consolidate his Big Breakthrough, if that's what it was. It's the attitude that aggravates. Ryan Langerhans? Why not Josh Wilson? Ryan Langerhans isn't going to be here long.
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=== PROPS for Wedge ===
That said. Wedge did endorse Michael Pineda, Tom Wilhelmsen, Josh Lueke and (I suppose) Justin Smoak.
There. Did we give you some serious whiplash? Mike Hargrove, Wedge is not.
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Next
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2011 Mariners: 82-80. History tells us it is very difficult for a team that has both a stud leadoff hitter and a stud #1 starter to finish under .500. And sometimes ('50 Phils, '59 Chisox, '69 Cards), that and little else is enough to win a pennant Last season, it happened. But the M's were historically bad last season. Won't happen again.
Amen, rick...
Heard Art Thiel on the radio today, saying, this is a 'throwaway season'. I like Art Thiel, but was he asleep when the Giants won the WS last year?
The M's are flawed, but they have:
- The best leadoff hitter in the game, and also maybe the 2nd best leadoff hitter in the game batting behind him
- The best defense up the middle in MLB (IE Gutz/Saunders, and maybe the two best defensive shortstops at 2b & short)
- The best pitcher in the game
And as Dr D mentions in another post, they've swapped out dead wood for players who can work the count and put together tough at bats. We saw that in spades tonight.
The cognoscenti just don't realize how wierd and unique last season was.
Langerhans is a career 4th OF who isn't very good. No manager he's ever had has said about him "he's my guy!"
But Wedge just did. I assume that Saunders stayed with the team just to let him sniff MLB experience again...rather than another two weeks of ML camp.
If Saunders isn't gong to play...then give Mike Wilson a shot. Hell, let HIM start in CF. He's a lot better than Langerhans.
Arrrrrgh.
Great game by Felix, tonight, though.
And after bashing Figgins all winter I will give him credit for a game tonight!
moe
Langerhahahahahahahaha. Ate lots of pitches, but 4Ks looking awful. More of a push than a total disaster, but I'd rather have someone who can learn while striking out 4 times than a journeyman.
Unless you're going to write up a post for us :- )
Make that '68. Yeah, I do need to put together that post.
But as I look through MLB history, were I a low budget team, I'd put all my dough on two Hummers: the studliest #1 ace and the studliest leadoff guy. Then I'd work on those volvos. Of course, great leadoff guys are hard to find, but barring that, .950+ OPSer somewhere in your lineup will fill in nicely. The Giants contended yearly with Barry Bonds, and little else. Of course, that IS Bonds. :-) - but if you got one of those, the Ace might get away with just being Very Good. You won't always contend, but you'll rarely, maybe never, be a loser.
The leadoff-ace theory is a pet one of mine, and since the M's actually started following it with the emergence of Felix and the long term Ichiro contract, I've been enjoying it. Of course, leave it to the M's to go and prove me wrong last season. But it is very difficult to suck at such a magnitude as that on a yearly basis. That was a historic fail. I'm not sure even Ichiro held up his bargain last season. You should probably give us at least .800 to achieve stud status at leadoff. But gotta admit a .840 Ichiro couldn't have saved last season's mess.
Love the look back at the '68 Cards. But notice they finished 4th (out of 10) in the NL in runs scored and 1st in team ERA.
I'll reinforce your prediction: If the M's finish 4th in runs scored, and 1st in team ERA, they will win their division. Bold of me, right?!''
Now, any takers on a bet that the M's will approach those league ranks in 2011? Didn't think so.
But I agree that offensively, if things go well, they could finish as high as the middle of the pack, though a 9th or 10th in the AL seems more reasonable IF things go well.
Again, if things go well they could rise to, say the top 5 in league ERA. But the odds that all the following happens: (1) Bedard stays mostly healthy, (2) Pineda's rookie season avoids common rookie pitfalls, (3) Vargas pitches like a #3 in the 4 slot, and (5) Fister pitches like a #5 in the #5 slot, and (6) the bullpen is a strength and not a problem, are pretty long odds. And that's about what it would take for them to even smell a best-in-league team ERA.
Still, I grant you that the M's team profile, IF things go well, gives them hope for a better than expected season. Good TOR pitching, good defense in the middle, maybe not the best hitters in the league but a lineup full of tough outs, and one that seems to always get the big hit. The "get the big hit" item becomes crucial in such a team.
Another team that looked really suspect on paper but that overachieved was the 1988 Orel Hershiser-Kirk Gibson Dodgers. That team finished 2nd in the NL in team ERA, middle of the pack (6th out of 12) in scoring. So the recipe for teams like this is to have top echelon pitching and defense, then enough offense to be average or a little better than that. If the M's become a league average offense then their possibilities for this season improve dramatically, of course. But that's a tall order.
One other comment. I'd be willing to bet you that all such teams, in addition to the MIF and CF defense, have a strong catcher, better yet a strong veteran catcher. I LOVED the look of Olivo behind the plate last night. Total take-charge attitude. None of this I'm-a-young-wannabe-trying-to-prove-myself. That Oliva dude knows who he is and what he can do. Hopefully he can add some plate contributions, but his catching contributions will really help this team.
Assuming career averages from the hitting side and healthy pitchers, do you think that our rotation order (Felix, Vargas, Fister, Bedard, Pineda) gives us a better shot at winning half of our games? We probably have a 3/4 chance with Felix, 1/3 chance with Vargas, 1/4 chance with Fister, 2/3 chance with Bedard, and 1/2 chance with Pineda. Contrast this with a rotation order based upon skill (Felix, Bedard, Pineda, Vargas, Fister). Bedard and Pineda definitely benefit from weaker matchups. If we had a 5 games series, it sure looks like we are playing to win games 1, 4, and 5.
Bill James once noted, the tapestry of baseball history is woven with those Gibsons, Koufaxes, Saberhagens etc. I believe fans and saberdudes underestimate the value of a HOF starting pitcher.
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Always thought a Lofton or a Rickey was truly devastating once you put him at the top of a GOOD lineup. Get a 105 OPS+ offense with Stars & Scrubs RBI guys 3-4-5 ... and now you add Ichiro, Lofton, or Rickey, and the offense can seem literally unstoppable.
But that's an interesting take, the idea of a HOF leadoff guy carrying a weak order....
They put a fish on board 2 (or even 1), punt that game (or hope to maybe draw it) and then try to sweep the other games.
It can be very effective, and honest teams hate to see that kind of stack.
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During the MLB regular season, though, the rotations tend to get pretty jumbled and it's rarely 1 vs 1, etc., in June.
Might be worth a thought for managers who, having days off, are setting a month's rotation in August, though.
Having to throw a lot high leverage pitches to Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, et al from the stretch because Lofton and Vizquel lived on base will take the wind out of most any sail... save Pedro Martinez.
Question, do you think Felix has Pedro potential with better health?
One thing that I look at, is that Pedro fanned 11-13 men per game in his prime ...
Pedro genuinely wanted to miss bats, and Felix genuinely likes high-GB games... the difference starting with Pedro's high FB vs Felix' topped FB at the knees....
SSI thinks that Felix has a plateau leap in him, if he will pitch to miss bats with 1 and 2 strikes on the hitter...
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Career value? Felix a great bet to have more than the 6-8 seasons of 5+ WAR that Pedro had...
Peak value? Pedro fanned 13.2 men and walked 1.6 in 1999, and used to routinely run ERA+ of 200-290 ... a tall order, asking Felix to go from a 170 ERA+ to a 240 ...
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Your sense of it K?
Pedro in his Boston heyday is the best I've ever seen -- better than Clemen, Maddux, or Randy to my eyes, at least.
I have to say Felix confuses me. He is more hittable than he should be to my eyes and I don't know why. I know even a blind squirrel finds a nut by mere chance every blue moon, but I thought Willingham just executed his plan better than Felix did his. Was it just an error in location, because the pitch had more juice on it than half the pitchers in the bigs can achieve? It did get a lot of the plate.
To my eyes he should dominate with swinging strikes like Roger Clemens, but he hasn't with any regularity. My guess to why is that all his pitches break down. The classic power pitcher has a 'rising' 4-seam fastball and a nasty 12-6 power curve or splitter (Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens template). Felix doesn't extend the strike zone vertically very effectively. It could be a problem in strategy, but I am starting to wonder if it is just a limit to the shape of his pitches.
But Felix' two-seamer breaks down, into the bats.
As well, Dave Allen demonstrated that Felix' two-seamer has armside run, which is right onto the barrel of LH bats (it's a fact that LH hitters rake FB's breaking slightly away from them).
Felix is great, but if he wants to fan hitters, it's the four-seam, non-moving, high-velo fastball that would miss bats...
But the Kevin Brown GB/K paradigm is also kinda okay :- )
Lead the AL in ERA? In Safeco, with Felix and Bedard and Pineda? Why not? That's a lot of high quality IP. I was merely looking for a winning season (and barely at that). You got me raising my sights, DaddyO. Not sure about coming in fourth in offense, but I think Ichiro and Figgins could do a decent Brock-Flood imitation, and the rest of the guys are no less scary than Dal Maxvill, Cepeda, Shannon, McCarver and a creaky Roger Maris. Remember we're talking '68 here. Not '64 or even '67. The Cards more resembled the 2003 Mariners in '68 than the 2001 brand. And actually, their offensive prowess was largely due to their ability to steal bases. Team OPS was .641, league average and 7th overall in a 10 team league. Or how about the '59 Go Go Sox: 1st in ERA and near last in offense (7th in OPS out of 8 teams).