1
Hopefully, they are just spreading around the work since today's double header is the only action they have for the week (rainouts over the weekend), but there may be more to the story.
2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K
Draft Pick Update
Based on performance alone, you have to add a new name. Probably not one that will float all the way to #2, but check out what he's done so far:
Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia: 5 GS, 4-0, 1.05 ERA, 34.1 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 62 K
No typo: 4 walks, 62(!) strikeouts. Hultzen is a lefty of roughly the Bedard template: low-90s and breaking stuff, but quite a bit bigger at 6-3, 200. Also an all-around athlete who plays 1b with a .316/.414/.421 batting line when not pitching. Scouts are not impressed enough with the breaking pitches for him to go #2, but he's getting himself noticed.
Lines like Hultzen's do make one wonder if all the pitchters will be wildly overrated due to the new, less-springy college bats.
This week's update:
1. Anthony Rendon, RH Rice 3b: The more Rendon doesn't play 3b (ankle and shoulder issues), the less gold-plated he looks. Bat is still solid, with a .338/.500/.563 line, 24 BB vs. 12 K. Some are moving to a "1/1A" scenario with Rendon and Cole a tossup. I still like Rendon better
2. Gerrit Cole, RH UCLA starter: Rained out over the weekend, so Cole is pitching this afternoon. I'll try to come back and update.
3. Matt Purke, LH TCU starter: Showed the dominance that moved him into everyone's top 5 -- but not logging very many innings due to various dings and circumstances:
vs. UNLV -- 5.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K
I love Purke, but he seems like the biggest risk of the top 3, and also roughly comparable to Paxton, who is already signed on the dotted line.
4. Sonny Gray, RH Vanderbilt starter: Started the year a notch below Cole and Purke, and hasn't done anything to deserve demotion.
vs. Miss State -- 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 10 K
5. Bubba Starling, RH Kansas HS CF: Still 0-for-0 (season starts Mar. 28). Could still make himself impossible to pass up, and probably the only one who could dislodge Rendon or Cole. But you'd have to be reeeeeeally sure he's worth the risk, and I'm a skeptic.
On the bubble: Hultzen, George Springer (RH UConn OF), Francisco Lindor (SH Florida HS SS), Matt Barnes (RH UConn starter)
Comments
2
I saw that Hulzen line and wondered why he wasn't at least considered Top 5, but then I read the scouting reports.
Consensus before this year was high 80s fastball with un-impressive offspeed. This year its sounds like hes up to 90-93mph with still lukewarm reports on his offspeed.
You have to assume the offspeed is better than reported though if he runs a 15+K/9 by the time the season ends. I'd love to see some video. Definetly a guy to track, although theres a high likelihood the K/9 comes back to earth.
Hitters could end up getting underrated this year as well. Rendon going #2 now is a very strong possibility.
3
The bats are reducing Rendon's monster numbers and increasing pitcher dominance, Rendon is slightly slowed by a nagging injury...just enough doubts to keep him from being the slam-dunk #1, not enough issues to give me pause about drafting him #2.
I like Cole. I do. But I will take a hitter worthy of the first pick in the draft over a pitcher every time. So far, so good. It's playing out perfectly. I don't mind the fall-back position of "only" the best pitcher in the draft and a worthy Verlander-like starter, but adding a Scott Rolen type to the mix on offense would be worth his weight in gold.
And if the Pirates decide to move their plus 3B to 1B to accomodate Rendon (another benefit for us - they have a good player at the hot corner already), then we'll take the golden arm instead. Bats ARE gonna be under-rated this year as everyone adjusts, but some arms are still pretty special.
Definitely glad to be picking top-2, though.
~G
4
This college season hasn't gone like I thought. For one, Cole is dominating and convincing the world that he's worthy of being selected No. 1, with Rendon's struggles aside.
My concern is that with the very real possibility of PIT taking Cole with the first pick, would the M's pass on Rendon for someone like Gray, Starling or Lindor? The national outlook on Rendon isn't as shiny like it's been the past 18 months. He's been called a definite top-five or top-ten selection but I worry how this will play on the M's choosing him or not.
Are the injury concerns that serious?
I think back to Ackley and his TJ surgery and how well he's progressed with no hitches regarding his health. Hopefully the same holds true for Rendon and the latest concerns with his shoulder. I think if it weren't for the two previous ankle surgeries, people would be less concerned with his overall health.
His health doesn't concern me as much as his performance has with the new bats. I know the rest of the NCAA has been sapped of power and that he doesn't have any real hitters on his team to provide incentive for opposing team's to even pitch to him, but does Anthony Rendon's size concern anyone?
Before the 2011 season, he was compared to the Zimmerman's, Longoria's and Harper's of draft's past. But what stands out to me besides his 'natural hitting ability' is his lack of size. Rendon stands at 6'0 and 190 lb. and looks unimpressive physically.
Has the thought occured that Rendon may 'only' be a right-handed version of Dustin Ackley (Hit Tool/Pitch Rec/Patience) but with GG 3B defense? The power might be there.. and it might not..
Thoughts?
5
Cole was on a pitch count. The pulled him after the second inning to ensure that he is properly rested for the heated USC rivaly later this week. Will pitch again on Friday or Saturday.
6
First off, I'm no great expert, I just do this because Doc invited me to.
My sense is that, at least during this transition, college ball has gone from ridiculously pro-hitter to ridiculously pro-pitcher. It looks like the NCAA won't have national stats until later this week, so we'll see.
Longoria and Zimmerman didn't rake HR in college with the old, spring-loaded bats -- Longoria maxed at 11 and Zimmerman a whopping 6. Mark Teixeira had a monster college season at age 21 and only maxed out at 18 HR.
Rendon's already had seasons of 20 and 26 (old bats). In other words, Poythress power but with defense and eye ratio (2nd in the nation in HR and 2nd in walks last year).
This year, he has fewer XBH, but he's actually added patience -- he's on pace for like 70+ walks. So everyone is probably being more careful, but Rendon's excellent eye is letting him get on base despite everything. To me, that just says he's adjusting, not that his power is illusory.
Stature is not huge, but his coach says he has "Hank Aaron wrists" -- Hank was listed at 6-0, 180.
Here's a quote:
The foundation of Rendon's offensive game is an innate ability to wait for his pitch.
"That's not something you teach," Rice hitting coach Mike Taylor said. "And Anthony's got supreme hand-eye coordination for this level, something I think he can take to the next level. He's also got the ability to keep his hands back and flick his wrists through the zone. I've been here 11 years, and the only hitter I've seen comparable through these ranks was Teixeira."
I think the Z-crew knows they need at least one big RH bat, and they also know that ordinary-talent RH bats disappear into Safeco purgatory -- so they need someone who can approach Edgar-level skills. That's a tall order, but Rendon looks like their best chance to do it at a reasonable price, and I don't think they'd let him slide unless they're totally convinced he's damaged goods due to injuries.
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Though I agree with you, there have been rumblings. When "insiders" are talking about how he might slip to the Cubs but probably not out of the top ten, I just shake my head. He's the best college hitter BY FAR this year, he will win gold gloves at 3B, he's the type of vocal leader every team needs...
And he'll hit for 3B power for sure. Rendon's size doesn't concern me at all.
George Brett: 6', 185 pounds, 40 2B/20 homer man per 162 for his career, more in his prime.
Edgar Martinez: 6' (on his tiptoes), 175 pounds, 40 2B / 25 HR per 162, though he never played that many games.
David Wright: 6'0, 210, 40 2B / 25 HR per 162.
Rendon's right with those guys size-wise. Probably bigger than George Brett. He's got a thicker core like Wright and Gar. Unlike Wright, he's a tremendous fielder.
If you can get 40+ 2B and 20+ HR out of your gold glove 3B, with a good average AND a high OBP, you've got a HOFer on your team. And this isn't like having Ichiro, a HOFer at a power position where there might be some quibbles. There were 5 guys with an OPS over .850 at 3B in 2010, 1 over .900. In 2009 it was 6 and 2. 2008 was 5 and 3. .850 might be a point of entry for a first basemen - it's upper echelon at 3rd.
But most of them are bad fielders. Wright isn't acceptable but not good (forget those GGs), ditto Aramis Ramirez.
Even Ryan Zimmerman isn't what I'd call a real plus 3B glove, though he has his moments. Evan Longoria is the guy who brings it with both the bat and the glove all the time, and that's why Rendon gets comped to him so much.
Maybe Rendon will have more problems with that busted ankle, but from everything I've heard it's not the same situation that happened to Ventura and limited his career.
If the Pirates are afraid of him or believe he doesn't have the necessary power for them to move him or Pedro to first, then that's great for us.
If he slips by us, I'll be upset. We're paying 9 mil a year for a dinky leadoff hitter who can take a walk. Rendon can also take a walk, but in between clubbing in runs.
I understand the philosopy that a MOTO built out of glove positions is too expensive to maintain, and that it drops your pure bat potential (since a MOTO from 1B, DH and LF would theoretically club for more power than a 2B/3B/CF one).
I'm willing to give it a shot. ;)
~G
8
This is from the free part of the Baseball America site so I figure it's ok to post.
Kiefer (Washington): Will the mariners take Anthony Rendon or Gerrit Cole if the other one is taken by the Pirates? And the one they draft will he be their #1 Prospect?? Thanks Jim Callis: I would think so—can't imagine the Mariners going in another direction. I'd rank either guy as their No. 1 prospect, ahead of either Ackley or Pineda, and I love both those guys.
Jeff (St. Louis): Based on what you guys have seen so far, are there any changes to your top five draft board? How high would Lindor sit at this point? Jim Callis: I'd tweak it a little. Rendon and Cole are 1 and 1A. Purke hasn't been at his best yet and Springer has started slowly, so you could put them behind guys like Gray and Jungmann. Lindor would be in the 8-15 range. He's good, but not as good as Manny Machado was last year, and I think several pitchers will go ahead of him.
And then some more.
Brian (School): Some people think Cole is now #1. How much should the Mariners/Pirates worry about Rendon's ankle/shoulder. Jim Callis: Rendon's injuries shouldn't be a concern. The ankle injuries were flukes, the result of fielding and running mishaps. His shoulder isn't a long-term worry and won't prevent him from playing third base down the road. But even if he were a diminished defender, he'd still compare favorably to No. 2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez, who isn't going to stick at the hot corner for long.
Then about Felix.
Nick (Grand Cayman): Jim, Thanks for the chat... Who backs off? Seattle gets: Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Nova, Heathcott NYY gets: Felix Jim Callis: No reason for the Mariners to trade Felix right now. Stud pitchers are impossible to find, and prospects aren't sure things. But Montero and Baneulos is at least a nice start. If the Mariners decided to deal him, I'd ask for Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances and a couple of secondary prospects. Would the Yankees turn that down?
9
"If the Mariners decided to deal him, I'd ask for Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos, Betances and a couple of secondary prospects. Would the Yankees turn that down?"
Wow - I'm against trading Felix, but if that offer is on the table I'd carry him to NY on my back.
BTW, did you see in the Ask BA that the M's were planning on drafting Tulowitzki over Clement all the way until the weekend before the draft? Ouch....
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I'd never pick a player so young and already with such a heavy injuries history. Really too risky.
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A lot of people grow into stronger bodies...it's not that uncommon for a kid to be injury prione until he gets his feet under him and bulks up with age.
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Also, if hes a DH-only I'd probably still take him at #2 unless somebody blow through the charts. The fact that we are even discussing this makes me optimistic that he could fall to us.
Cole's devlopment of a plus/plus changeup is changing my mind on him. IMO a great changeup is the best offspeed weapon you can have at the MLB level. It is immediately effective if you sell it well and has a small platoon split.
13
I'm not sure of course, nobody can be right now. Notwithstanding it's curious everybody usually refers to pitchers as risky picks even before they had any injury at all while a 20-year old amateur 3B with two ankle injuries and a shoulder injury within a couple of years is considered a reliable athlete for a 162-games season. I'm sure the FO will be very cool on the matter.
14
My understanding is that the shoulder issue is minor and that Rice is being overly precautious during the non-conference season.
Both ankle injuries were "fluke" occasions, not indications that he has any sort of weakness in his ankle structure, isn't generally healthy or is unusually susceptible to such things, only unlucky. And he recovered from this last one ahead of schedule.
He has the tools to be a very gifted RH hitter, and I haven't seen any indication that the injuries have had an impact on that whatsoever.
15
Sure, I have them. Absolutely amazing hitter derailed by injuries. But Rendon hasn't blown out any knees, ripped up shoulders or wrists...
He broke his leg and tore ligaments sliding into a base (it happens, and it's gruesome). He recovered well enough from this injury to win the BA college player of the year, show zero symptoms of lingering issues, and be talked about as being better than Bryce Harper.
He then broke his ankle in a "freakish occurance" in a rundown the summer after his pro season. He doesn't play for Team USA and we aren't having this conversation, and the Pirates are 100% taking him.
He's now pulled a muscle in his throwing arm, which is the only reason he's not playing 3B right now. His ankle is fine - again. No recurring issues, no problems jumping or diving. But the fact that he got some random shoulder tweak is dropping his stock, which is fine with me. As long as he doesn't slide past us.
It's not a torn labrum for a pitcher, or even a blown UCL like Dustin Ackley had that kept him from throwing the ball for a year, which caused him to switch to 1B from CF. We drafted Ackley knowing we'd need him to be able to throw in order to get proper value out of him and watching him slap-hit for .400 in his sophomore year while being unable to properly extend his arm - and I thought it was (and is) a good bet to make. If winning POY is "damaged goods" then give me some of those goods, please.
Rendon has messed up his ankle twice. I get the concern...but I really do consider him an Edgar-esque hitter. Edgar couldn't stay at 3rd and still would have been worth the #1 pick in any draft. Unless the injury causes a problem with his hitting I don't have any problem with drafting Rendon #2, and it isn't. For the 2nd year in a row he's proving that he's a special hitter. And I don't think it'll hurt him in the field either.
A pitcher only needs one injury to never play productively again. It's rarely that way for hitters. Even Snelling needed to basically be hit by a car to become useless.
So it comes down to whether you think the injury pattern is a symptom of random luck or a deeper injury issue that will dog Rendon for his career.
I like to think it's our future World Series taking a hand in the past and helping us out, along with the Curse of the Pirates cussing up a storm on their behalf. :)
~G
16
However, those who don't wish to be exorcised, will need to avoid the transgressions that got their material forms terminated in the first place ...
In this case, the transgression being a misconception that they had carte blanche to flatly contradict other posters and make them wish they hadn't said anything...
For example, this comment and this comment... please be advised that G-Money is himself holding one of the Aykroyd/Murray plasma guns ... :- )
Whatever you do, don't give G-Money any excuse to pull the trigger... his gun wields a seldepion blast and trust us, this is not a good thing...
Ghosts who emerge from their graves sadder but wiser, and much friendlier, might haunt a house for decades ... centuries even...
;- ) :loveyakid:
Hey Ghost have you signed up for Justin's Yahoo league? You want to play the AL-only league also?
17
The pitching motion is a very unnatural body movement...we're asking our arms/shoulders to do things they weren't designed to do repetitively at maximum effort tens of thosuands of times. Pitching is a heck of a lot harder on the arm than playing a position is on any one body part. There's a reason we make a distinction between pitchers (who get hurt a LOT even when seemingly healthy beforehand) and hitters (who generally do not get hurt anywhere near as often, even when they've been hurt before unelss their injury is in a certain class...like lower back problems or chronic knee trouble or plantar fascitis...things that once you have them, tend to recur).
Both of Rendon's ankle ihnjuries were flueks that healed pretty quicly and his shulder injury is unrelated and not likely to be a constant problem. The fact that he can still hit really well with the shoulder problem ongoing should tell you how unimportant it is...it can't be that acute an injury.
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There was not contradictory tone intended by the comment "too early to make that kind of call"...that was just a statement of my opinion that it's too early to assume that a string of bad luck injuries are evidence that Rendon is a glass-bodied kid unlikely to stay healthy. The point was that he's young and a lot of young kids go through injury streaks while they're getting used to their adult bodies. I fail to understand how that post could be read as "making someone wish they hadn't said anything"...in fact the same guy I was responding to came right back and made his point... Not trying to cause trouble...just very confused here..
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Rather to the types of comments hyperlinked in the text...
Definitely appreciate the erudition and logic, amigo... however the 'what did I do wrong' angle is not the right way to begin a new incarnation IMHO... you've run into enough pushback, at enough different sites, to 'get it' as to what the problemos are...
Biggest suggestion would be to come up with your own ideas rather than responding to others' ideas, because your moshing off others' ideas simply tends not to be much fun for anybody ...
Stay cool, avoid ticking off other posters with the overdoses of "that's just wrong" shtick and we'll all benefit from yer comprehensive baseball and math knowledge...
-Jeff
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I do not want to be misunderstood. Like any other baseball fan I love the idea of a new Evan Longoria reaching the big leagues. And I've no problem to understand every aspect of the points exlained by G. Unfortunately I've still a bad feeling as for what will be that kid's career. Unlucky injuries ? Perhaps, but even being unlucky is a bad pedigree IMHO.
Good luck Rendon, good luck M's !
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Cuz I've enjoyed ghost's posts, he was absolutely right to call me out for unleashing on Sandy, and all I've ever done in my 7 years in the Mariners blog-o-sphere is mosh off other peoples' posts. :) The reason I don't have a blog is that I don't have a journalist's instinct for creating one's own pieces. I tend to see something I either disagree with or want to emphasize and post off of other peoples' work.
So I think I'm missing whatever ghost did to raise an eyebrow as well. I'm missing the connotation. Cuz if he did it wrong, I've been doing it wronger and longer, I think.
As for Rendon, I dunno if it's adjustment to body as he's had his same size for a while now (not quite like a basketball player adding 6 inches of height or a football player putting on 30 lbs of muscle) so I'm not sure that it's something I'd think of first-off, but it's certainly possible.
It could be that he's just going through growing pains as his adolescent body matures into his adult one. Or maybe he's made of glass like Snelling or has "bad luck" like Greg Oden.
I dunno. But I'd rather bet on Rendon's injury risk level than a pitcher's any day. If you gave me the choice at the time between Mauer and Prior, I would have gone Mauer JUST like the Twins did. And Mauer has not been the picture of health. Prior was a tremendous arm that couldn't stand up to the strain, and there are a lot of those.
Rendon/Cole is the purely college version of that argument, IMO. My side hasn't changed. :)
~G
22
...the thing about Law I was too overzealous...I personally dislike most of what Law says...shouldn't have been so foreceful about it, though.
The other post, I really don't see what I did to be confrontational in that...I was trying *very* hard to be cordial...I've read enough from Sandy to be seriously confused as to why G got on him so quickly, but I think I spent that entire conversation being non-threatening and personable while raising my objection.
And I don't think there was anything objectionable in the post that seems to have triggered this concern from Jeff (he does say he wasn't referring to that post, but...something about that post triggered concern...).
Just FWIW, I am mostly moshing off of other posts right now because I only have time to read and respond right now and because I think I do better online when my activity is lower. Not because I'm trying to be contrarian.
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Hi Ghost,
All of the comments below reference the replies in the thread, "Lonnie of MC on 3B Matt Mangini - Crunch".
Let me start by saying that I expected a truly acrimonious response to your comment directed at G, but the exact opposite occurred. You initiated an improved exchange between G and Sandy, not a flame war. The thing is, I think that is largely because G showed better behavior than I would have, but the facts are on your side. With that acknowledgement, let me get on to my point.
Based on Jeff Clarke's warning, I have a notion of your prior 'net identity. This does influence my comment, but does not dominate what I have to say. Before addressing your comment in the above hyperlinked reproachment from Jeff, I thought G_moneyball reacted with surprising sensitivity to Sandy's post. Let me also state that I 'read' Sandy's post to be sanctimonious. Neither of these perceptions assume intent on the part of G or Sandy, I just thought it would be valuable to give my sense of the tone that existed in that thread before you choose to post.
Heading into a delicate setting where it already appears that G is on the defensive the you start your reply with, "Lurking long enough to notice you've got an incredibly short temper, G. Wow." Your very first sentence states that you believe G is already angry, but rather than stepping delicately you state, "You've got an incredibly short temper." This will be viewed as criticism by most everyone since an, "Incredibly short temper," is viewed as a weakness rather than a strength. From my vantage point, this is an odd choice of tone in an already prickly setting, but it might pass. However, you directly follow with, "Wow." You couldn't stop with the critique, you choose to add a sarcastic exclamation point.
Above you state, "I was trying *very* hard to be cordial." From my vantage point, your opening statement is a blunt criticism followed by a sarcastic exclamation point, yet you want me to believe this is your *best* attempt at polite discourse? I must admit that I find this perplexing to the point of disbelief.
Kelly
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correct ... Ghost is a banned individual, here and at virtually every other site in Seattle.
I was willing to play along with the little joke, the second screen name, provided that the second chance was put to good use.
In the spirit of trying to help him turn the second... Er, hundredth... chance into a successful one, we offered an advance explanation of the conditions under which he could be successful.
Had ghost been a new poster, of course the context and our reaction would have been different.
Coming at G-Money as though a second poster was reinforcing the old, banned, one, was particularly inappropriate. The 'wow, it's clear you have a temper' leaves the impression that a random new poster would agree with the old one. :sigh:
Please try to keep your negative reactions to others' posts to a minimum, ghost, in view of your track record.
Again, since you seem to lack the ability to discern when you're getting into problems, we suggest that you simply publish your own ideas and avoid replying to the ideas of others.
Play ball :)
.