Q.  But is it realistic for the Mariners to win in 2011?

A.  It has to be.  When's the last time the Mets punted a season?

........

Hey, guess when the last time was that the Mariners were 61-101?  Besides last year?

The Mariners were precisely 61-101 in 2008, also.  They won 85 games the next year and were only -4 games out at the All-Star break.  To you that was an aberration; to Jack Zduriencik, it is the process he needs to execute in 2011.

The M's are a big-market team.  They've got Felix, Ichiro, young guys coming in -- this isn't a Royals situation.

.............

Every year, there is some surprise team fighting for the playoffs; usually it's a team that came up with a rotation out of nowhere.

Felix gets support from Bedard and Pineda... hey, that gives them a puncher's chance.

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Q.  Can they get runs to go with that pipe dream?

A.  From the left side, they've got Smoak, Cust, Milton Bradley posing the threat of a rebuilt MOTO.

Sure, they could do a lot better than 513 runs.

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Q.  What do 4 or 6 or 10 Michael Pineda starts mean to the 2011 season?  That's like 0.7 WAR.

A.  Silentpadna and I have watched what, 35 Mariner seasons, and in about 20 of those, the ballclub has thrown in the towel on the season by May 15.

Hey, dummy.  You pencil Pineda in for game 40?  The Mariners might be 13-and-27 by then.  You get it?

Then there'd be no point in bringing Pineda up ... which is what the saberdweebs would just as soon see anyway.  'cause we should be bailing on 2011 anyway...

Shoulda bailed on 2009, right?

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Q.  BP "calculates" that the M's will win 70 and lose 92.  

A.   Yeah, with the following premises.  Get a load of this:

• Justin Smoak batting .236 / .337 / .372 in 650 AB
• Michael Saunders getting 500 AB (??) in LF, hitting .229 with 48 RBI
• Franklin Gutierrez posting a .299 OBP (not average) with a .356 SLG
• Erik Bedard making 5 starts, throwing 45 innings before being shut down
• Chone Figgins being worse than last year
• Ichiro batting .288 (yep) and scoring 76 runs
• Milton Bradley finishing with 11 RBI
• Dustin Ackley starting at 2B ... but being worse than replacement level
• Luke French starting 25 games (??) at worse than RLP
• Michael Pineda spending half the year in AAA
• etc.

If those things happen, yeah, I imagine that the M's lose 90, don't you?

But is it not okay for Jack Zduriencik to try to get #2-3 performances out of Bedard and Pineda?

Is it not okay for him to try to get MOTO hitting out of Smoak, Cust, Bradley and/or Carp or some other young player?

..............

If the Mariners did not have Bedard and Pineda in camp -- if they were pinning their hopes on David Pauley and Tom Wilhelmsen - then guess what I'd be saying about 2011?

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