Actually, you bring up a HUGE and critical point. I LOOOOVE the fact you look at Fister's career BABIP. In point of fact, I myself am generally prone to preferring career numbers over stats-come-lately.
Which brings up the larger (beyond the scope of Fister alone) question of -- when is it advisable to pay attention to splits vs. career numbers? Basically, the million dollar question is - "when is it REASONABLE to think a player has jumped to a new level?" - (in either direction).
Obviously, the smaller the data set, the more volatile and less reliable. And, baseball has always been a game of streaks and slumps. From Pujols to Kotchman every player will run through 1 or 2 months spells completely outside of 'normal' production. Over time, they even out, and you get the "real" picture.
But, for "prospects" and callups -- guys with very, very short resumes, production is EXTREMELY volatile. Smoak "seemed" to have established himself as MLB-competent before arriving in Seattle - but then spent a month making Rob Johnson look good. As a rule, it's a sucker bet to read "too much" into any couple of months stats from a newbie.
With Fister, yes, he has a .295 BABIP in his 232 innings. Is that a better measure for what to "expect" in the future? It's a legit question - and there's as much art to science in the answer.
By default, I prefer careers to 'samples' - (at least until early 30s, when decline becomes a concern).
But ... with young pitchers, the ebb and flow is VERY hard to read. So, I think you need to look how the parts work TOGETHER. So, my mathematical take on Fister and his BABIP journey.
1) Largest sample size is his minor league profile. In the minors, Fister amassed a career total in 421 innings with a 6.6 K/9; 2.1-BB/9, 0.8-HR/9 and 10.3 H/9. The TTO numbers are nice enough for a control fiend. But, the H/9 were CONSISTENTLY above what the other pitchers were throwing on his team. And, his final 106 AAA innings showed his WORST H/9 (11.2) of his minor league career. Zero evidence that he was solving his BABIP problem at ANY point in his minor league tenure. (If anything, it appeared to get worse as his control got better).
2) 2009 - 11 starts at the end of the magical shoulda-been-farewell tour for Griffey. With the #1 defense in baseball, Fister looked right at home - with a .271 BABIP (just like everyone else). Buuuuuut ... what was his ISO for those 61 innings? Wait for it ... 205. He was running a .271 BABIP - but had a 1.6 HR/9. (Small sample screws with HR/9 numbers - sure - but, of course, if it's flying over the wall - 11 times in 11 games -- it ain't counting toward BABIP. You lauded his ability to squash power ... in 2009, when running that .271 BABIP, the enemy posted a .469 slugging average.
So, the 2009 cup-o-joe, he was wildly off his minor league norms in BOTH BABIP and Slugging.
3) The question of "has he moved to a new level" is typically attributed to players who START poorly and finish strongly. The idea is that they struggle out of the gate, (Smoak?), go fix something ... and then come back as a better pitcher. It is a MUCH harder sell to suggest a player has "moved to a new level", when he has a span doing something much out of character and previous experience - and THEN reverts to performing pretty much exactly as he has before. To *me* that is sort of the definition of streak.
4) One extra word about the 1H/2H thing in 2010. To believe that he was "lucky" 1H and "unlucky" 2H - basically means that he pitched an entire season and NEVER actually pitched to his normal level. For me - while I believe it is possible for a player to go through an entire season w/o a streak or a slump -- I think it would be HIGHLY unusual for a player to go through an entire season and never have a single period where he was pitching to his "normal" level.
My take:
So - for Fister, for his last 4 years in the minors, he ran horrid BABIPs with solid TTO numbers.
He had 61 MLB innings at the end of 2009 that were atypical in nearly every aspect.
He had a GREAT 11 game start (2 months) to 2010, where he ran off-the-charts good BABIP, (but suffered a SEVERE 2.5 K drop from his minor league numbers). You look at his April/May BABIP numbers - .241 and .234 happened while he was running 4.3 and 4.0 K/9 numbers.
When he returned, his final 3 months were:
July - .360 BABIP -- 5.6 K/9
Aug - .383 BABIP -- 7.4 K/9
Sep - .315 BABIP -- 4.0 K/9
To me, the pattern is obvious. His BABIP is tied STRONGLY to K-rate -- but inversely. His best BABIP performances tend to be when he is NOT striking out people.
The stock analysis of TTO stats expects a player to get better results when his Ks rise (and his other TTO numbers remain constant). Fister doesn't fit that mold.
The question (in my mind) is this -- is it possible for a guy to run a 0.8-HR; 2-BB 4-K line to survive long term? Tewksbury is about it that I can find quickly that managed to turn this profile into a genuine career. So, yes, it is possible.
But, I would argue that the attempts to get his K rate UP have been (and will likely continue to be) counter-productive. In the end, I think Fister might well be a guy Duncan in St. Louis could have loads of fun with. I have little optimism that Seattle understands exactly what they have and how to optimize his usage even after seeing his usage optimized in April and May.
And this, IMO, gets to the true underlying issue with Seattle. Player development requires agility. You have to be able (and more importantly willing) to accept non-standard patterns for success, (or assemble talent that all naturally fits the standard mold really well).
I have little reason to believe that Seattle will not destroy Fister in much the same way they managed to destroy Silva. Even with the new management, I still get the sense that the organization on the whole is one of the least maleable in all of baseball. And Z can make all the great moves he can manage - but if the standard in Seattle remains to under-perform while playing in the great northwest - the results will continue to be ugly.
Again and again San-Man throws out topics that demand serious replies... keep up da good work, b'wana...
Can BABIP be a skill?
I said *BEFORE* the 2010 season that the problem with Fister was his H/9. In AAA, when he was actually posting the numbers that GOT him his MLB job - that his Hits/9 were 1.5 HIGHER than *EVERY OTHER SP* at Tacoma.
I think you're absolutely right - Fister has a "skill" that allows him to run 100 ISO's routinely. He has a skill that allows him to walk only 2 guys a game.
BUT ... the *price* for those skills is in "perpetually" running .350 BABIPs.
Most definitely, BABIP is a skill. Change-speed artists, as a group, run low BABIP's. In a given year, a pitcher might earn a BABIP of about .270, even .260 on the low end ... all the way up to .350 or higher.
.............
Jamie Moyer's BABIP is .286, after 17,000 batters faced. If Moyer had quit when he was 38-40 years old, he'd have finished around .270.
Pedro's BABIP was .282 lifetime, and for a while a lot lower than that... I mean, if pitchers can post .275 and .280 BABIP's over long careers, obviously individual seasons can be a lot better. Pedro's career ERA is 2.93, but in individual years he earned 1.74's and 1.93's, right?
.................
If Fister is going to lead the league in FB's thrown, he will definitely have worries at the BABIP counter. He threw 67.0% "heaters" last year! You throw an 87 mph fastball knee-high, and they are going to scorch a hot ground ball. End of story.
I think that the insight on Doogie's BABIP is a brilliant one, San-Man... run with it baby. If a guy is going to stand out there with a Greg Maddux pitching motion, and throw 87 mph fastballs every pitch, they are going to time it. And timing it means loading up on it.
Just so: location will keep the ball in the yard, and will cut the BB's. But associated, logically, is the high line drive rate and the hotly-smacked ground balls.
..................
For all that, let's keep perspective: Doogie has now thrown to 1,000 ML batters and his BABIP against is .295. (He was .350 in the 2H, but the .250 in the 1H counts too. And his 2009 was .271.
I do expect that, if Fister keeps throwing 70% fastballs, that the BABIP is going to rise as the league triangulates him. Important idea that San-Man points out.
It's tough to figure. Wakamatsu liked Fister's "angle and movement." Fister is very tall, and comes very over the top. You can see why they'd want to take advantage.
So, hard to predict.
...................
If the Mariners get off their fascination with "located fastballs" and let him change speeds even a little more, then his BABIP will remain fine, IMHO. Except for guys with weird sinkers, there isn't another 88 mph righthander in major league baseball who throws all fastballs like Fister does.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
With Fister, yes, he has a .295 BABIP in his 232 innings. Is that a better measure for what to "expect" in the future? It's a legit question - and there's as much art to science in the answer.
But ... with young pitchers, the ebb and flow is VERY hard to read. So, I think you need to look how the parts work TOGETHER. So, my mathematical take on Fister and his BABIP journey.
Ya. The older I get, the less I buy the idea that there's a "correct" forecast on a question like this.
But, the H/9 were CONSISTENTLY above what the other pitchers were throwing on his team. And, his final 106 AAA innings showed his WORST H/9 (11.2) of his minor league career.
Right, just as he was running the impossible 7:1 control ratios.
Which is why your point is so well taken, the connection between "not being wild enough" and the good swings that batters get. Sometimes pitchers can be too reliable in their location...
I have little reason to believe that Seattle will not destroy Fister in much the same way they managed to destroy Silva. Even with the new management, I still get the sense that the organization on the whole is one of the least malleable in all of baseball.
Yup.
The Silva comp is a bit disconcerting here :- ) ... his FIP went from 5.97 his last year here, to 3.75 the moment he got to pitcher haven Wrigley Field.
Wayyyy too many ex-Mariners pulling the Olivos, Silvas, Beltres and Guillens the very first games they play outside the org. Maybe they need to hire Ozzie to manage?
4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER (Rod Barajas solo HR), 0 BB, 4 K
Drayer sez: "Probably the best we have seen Fister this spring. Fister is looking for repeatability of delivery and release point right now and you could tell after his last start that he was a little annoyed that it hadn't kicked in at this point. Well maybe it has."
And ... Jack Wilson homers, Jack Cust homers and Alex Liddi goes grand salami off completely helpless former Mariner semi-prospect Jon Huber.
And ... Tacoma equipment managers are starting to seek out 6-foot-4 jerseys with "Saunders" on the back after 0-for-3 with six straight swinging strikes in the last two ABs. Drayer sez he looks "very lost."
And ... Tui's been told he'll play 1b and LF only. Guess that means Adam Kennedy makes the team and will back up at third. Since Kennedy bats LH, that makes Carp and Mangini redundant and Tui becomes the RH bench option.
I've said before that I think Saunders has a bat that could be decent in LF but should probably be at a glove position to get good value. He's nimble enough out there that he can play CF, IMO. If you have him playing LF and expect him to be a thumper for you, though, I dunno that he can do that.
And we're messing with his swing and his mind at this point. I think he's gonna go somewhere else and do decently well, but I dunno that it'll be here. I don't think Tui is the replacement we're looking for at that spot either.
I think it's more likely that LF is manned by either Tenbrink or Chavez in 2 years if we're staying internal.
Tenbrink has a ridiculously fast bat, was raw coming out of college, has a good eye and is coming on strong.
If you haven't seen him swing...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q3oBevt8po
Nate swings with authority (and quite a lot of batspeed). I don't think he's gonna have great power, but he can have Ibanez power even with that pre-swing toe-tap out in front that saps a lil bit of his lower body.
I expect him to start pounding the ball in Tacoma, and with his walk rate climbing he should throw his cap in the ring shortly. He's competing with guys like Liddi and Chavez for that role.
Liddi (also at AAA for this year):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYYtW8FsbLo&feature=related
What's the phrase? Doesn't get cheated at the plate. :) And he's a big, big kid. I can't see him staying at 3rd (unless he can eke out a Troy Glaus existence there) so LF is another possible destination for him.
This is Chavez from 2009 winter ball:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MimrNpffewM&NR=1
We worked on a few of the pieces of his swing this year and he started clubbing like a maniac afterward (even though much of it was at home) , so I'm curious to see new video of him, and how he translates to AA. Liddi held up reasonably well. Tenbrink did all right. Nobody's blown the doors off yet in AA in recent years.
The guy with the monster year next season will go to the head of the line to replace Saunders, I'm thinking. Sadly.
Let's hope a few guys have monster years.
~G
Big Tenbrink fan after Lonnie introduced him at MC. Most would be turned off by his raw age, but his baseball age is young in comparison. Just a guy that didn't get much PT and had to convince coaches hes a starter. I'd have him in my top 10. I like his combo of LH, compact swing, eye ratio, and speed. Thats a great fit for LF in Safeco.
I'd love it if Tenbrink can follow the Nick Swisher template: acceptable average, great walks, decent power. Swish is one year ahead of Tenbrink's progress to the bigs age-wise, but Nate wasn't a first round pick from a decent baseball school with a dad who played professionally.
I'm anticipating his year in Tacoma to see his continued growth, that's for sure.
~G
But I've also always said I thought he was rushed to the bigs and was kind of a victim of his own success (and the lack of other prospects at the time).
I'm also a big fan or Tenbrink's LH + decent power + eye + speed combo, and I'm fine with letting he and Saunders duke it out in Tacoma while Langerhans or Gross keeps the roster spot warm. I think that's what they'll do in light of MB looking solid so far.
Not opposed to Liddi or Chavez, but skeptical of RH hitters who strike out a lot as bad fits for Safeco -- and I think Z is too, based on who he's acquired since he came in.