Seattle Sports Insider

HQ #13: Mauricio Robles, LHP

Posted by

3/8/11

Spectator sez,

Solid outing from Wilhelmsen (Mar. 8); wobbly but unscored-upon outing from Robles

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Wilhelmsen's first fastball was 90, but he quickly got up to 93 and sat 93-95 the rest of his inning.

Struck out Eli Whiteside swinging on 93mph fastball.

Struck out Darren Ford looking on 76mph curve.

Got Miguel Tejada to ground out on 75mph curve.

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Robles started at 88 and never got over 91.

Got Aubrey Huff to ground out on 74mph slider.

Got Buster Posey to pop up on 83mph change.

Nate Schierholz doubled on 90mph fastball.

Thomas Neal walked on 4 pitches (not intentional).

Mike Fontenot walked on 4 pitches. Bases loaded.

Threw two balls to Ryan Rohlinger before strking him out swinging on 90mph fastball.

It is interesting you bring that up Spec, because the HQ scouts see Robles as a completely different kind of starting pitcher than we do. Their book can be ordered here.

They see him as a 88-91 guy for his career, and a guy who has a very high chance of being a 100 ERA+ innings-eating starter in the bigs, as opposed to having a 30% chance of becoming a Scott Kazmir type.

Their paradigm is so radically different from ours that I folded over the handrail and flipped onto my head when I saw it...

Am not saying that HQ's take is gospel, obviously, but when somebody good says something truly strange, then --- > it is sometimes an opportunity to turn a light bulb on.

In this case, we'll give HQ's comment unedited:

FB +++ (87-95)

CB +++ (81-85)

CU +++ (76-87)

Potential: #4 starter

Arrival: 2012

Grade: 7A (Average regular, 90% probability)

Short/powerful lefty who has benefitted from deep repertoire that induces weak contact.

Can pitch off hard FB to set up decent CB and CU. Can register K's with curve, and has added cutter to arsenal.

Lacks frontline size and stuff, but has high probability of success. Can struggle with flyballs.

The vast majority of the time, HQ synchs with our local discoveries about M's farmhands - e.g. Cortes' delivery, Nick Franklin needing to bat LH, etc -- that to see a profile so weirdly divergent is odd.

That said, it is interesting to re-evaluate Robles more in the Dallas Braden template than in the Brett Anderson template.

................

HQ has Robles as only #13 within the M's own org, as opposed to the #4-6 that he's routinely seen elsewhere... this undoubtedly reflects their buying in to the stamina questions.

If the Mariners ever get Robles to planting his lead foot on the 3B side of the centerline when he lands, we may find out who's right about Robles' fastball - whether it's a bread-and-butter setup pitch for a 30/30/30 John Smiley type, or whether it's a gamebreaking weapon in the Anderson, Kazmir mold.

Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

Change not desirable...

If you were to change anything with Robles' mechanics then you run a great chance of him losing his #1 weapon; deception. As he throws right now, his pitches are very hard to square up (very high popup rate).
G_Money will probably turn blue in the face when he reads this, but I think that if Robles doesn't show a better ability to go deep into games by mid-season this year that he will be transitioned to the bullpen. There, he could become a shut-down closer.
Lonnie

blue face

:)
"can struggle with fly balls?" In what universe? The guy basically never gives up HRs, has crazy IFF numbers, and until this year was basically line-drive-proof as well. He gives up runs in 2 ways: by loading the bases with base-on-balls, and because his defense boots outs with RISP. His FIP vs. ERA numbers are normally near the league lead.
Major leaguers in camp last year called his changeup his best pitch, because it just falls off the table. The heater's good, and pretty great for a lefty, but it's the breaking pitches that make him a handful. He doesn't get rattled with guys on base, or when his fielders make errors.
He's a competitor.
For all that, he might indeed wind up in the pen. I've used the Eric Gagne comparison before as a short, heavy, hard-throwing strikeout guy who just walked to many to be truly effective in the rotation. They moved him to the pen and he was a monster. Now, part of that was roids, but still.
I don't want Robles in the pen if he can get his walks-problem under control. If he can't, then we won't have a choice. Move him, make him a two-pitch pitcher, and call it a day.
Either way I expect him to have an impact on the big club. It's very hard to be THAT unhittable when you walk that many guys and put that much pressure on yourself to get the next guy out all the time.
It's frustrating watching his command go on the fritz. He'll have innings and games where he's got it and he's DOMINANT. 10K/1BB in 7 IP sort of stuff. Then he'll walk 6 guys in the first 3 innings of the next game, and still give up no runs.
Still, he's only 21 - I don't think his destiny as a starter is written yet. The Dodgers didn't convert Gagne until his 3rd or 4th year in the bigs.
Of course, Gagne didn't walk as many guys in the minors as Robles either...
So how long do you wait for control? If you watch a pitcher who is RARELY squared up continue to master hitters, and his only weaknesses are his own control and the men behind him, what's it worth to you to keep putting him in the rotation and working on that command issue?
If your MOR contenders (not even TOR, just the middle) for the next few years can be counted on one hand and you might have a finger left over?
I'd give it some more time.
~G

This type of thing can drive

This type of thing can drive you mad if you think about it too much. Fix the landing leg flaw and he could shoot up prospect lists like Pineda did last year.

Just the kind of response we were baiting yer for :- )

Their remark 'can struggle with fly balls' does look like a superficial assumption.
One piece of middle ground here, is that I'd thought his offspeed stuff was crackling but out-of-control, like Mike Campbell's from some years back, and that it was wait-and-see as to whether or when Robles would be able to deploy it consistently.
A picture that seems to emerge here is that Robles is more in the Jon Lester change-speed template, than in the Scott Kazmir hard-and-wild template.
Which is interesting in itself.

Whether to fix the leg

1. He's supposed to have great stuff, and smoke-and-mirrors tricks are supposed to be for old innings eaters
2. In this particular case (big abdomen, extreme step-around) he's way over the line of "will cause health and stamina problems"
IMHO, Robles is way too good to resort to childish tricks that are detrimental to his health and career.
Am sure that he snapped off a few hooks Nelson style, got garbage swings, and fell in love with it. Hope he falls out of love with it, and instanter.
Wonder if that 88-91 mph has anything to do with the fact that he is enemies with the driveline?

I don't think that that is it...

Again, I'd be loath to change his mechanics because I'm afraid that it might expose his average stuff.
I'm not sure if you saw it or not, Doc, but here's a link to the "Pitching Progression" piece I did on Robles a couple of weeks ago.
Linkeepoo