Doc, What would you think the difference in OPS and OPS+ between Kouz and Figgy would be next year?
If Kouz is an 88OPS guy and Figgy is 93....and you dump a bunch of $8M years...AND you get the + part.
AND you improve with the glove....
AND you have a bunch of IF-types growing up....
No brainer.
Interesting.
And this tells you thatZ sees Ackley as a top of the lineup guy in 2011.
I remember Bill Stein. I even listened to the first M's game ever...Spring my sophomore year at the U of O.
He was a 90 OPS guy for the M's for the 2 years he was full time...
I'l take that from Kouz!
Over the last 4 years he's OPB'ed 110,100,97,83. :last year was a bottom out. He'll bounce.
figgy has OPB'ed 117,82,110,84 over that time. The 117 was certainly an outlier year due to a sky-high BABIP.
There probably isn't much difference.
An MC denizen points out that an Oakland beat writer published a statement that the Oakland writer had been told, by an A's source,* that the A's are "trying to trade" Kevin Kouzmanoff-plus for Chone Figgins.
It's not on MLBTR yet, but soon will be. Pretty sahl-eeed 'local-scoop' by Weeeee, ain't it Geoffy? ;- ) Great column b'wana.
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=== Kevin Kouzmanoff ===
Is signed for one year, at a bit less than $5M.
Kouzmanoff is an MLB(TM) third baseman who is mediocre-to-lousy at everything offensively, and classy-but-not-spectacular with the glove.
It's amusing to me that, with the bat, Kouzmanoff is terrible at nothing ... yet melancholy at everything. He hits 17 home runs: not weak, but not so's you'd ever go into a series expecting him to hit one.
He drives in 70, 80 runs. His SLG, albeit in bad hitters' parks, is about .425. His average is about .260.
You get the idea. The expansion Seattle Mariners had precisely Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base, except back then he was named Bill Stein. Stein also posted 90 OPS+'s, played a classy 3B (Stein was part second baseman), and was mind-numbingly, monotonously MLB(TM).
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=== WAR / Value / Context Dept. ===
Fangraphs shows Kouzmanoff as worth $11 to $12M in performance the last few years. It's okay if you value him at $11M for next year, and it's okay if you value him at zero.
What's an 80-90 MLB(TM) hitter, with a fairly good glove, worth to you? Depends on whether you are playing stoploss or not.
..............
Nobody actually has Replacement Level Journeyman on their jersey (though Saltalamacchia comes pretty close). If you've got kids you like at 3B -- well, of course their value is completely unprojectable, and so Kouzmanoff's so-called 20 runs above them has no meaning.
We all know what you pay (20 - 0). But! How much do you pay (20 - x), where x is what you hope to get from Alex Liddi? Not just in 2011, but in 2012 and over the next several years? What's the investment time worth, if he's going to be good in 2013 provided that he plays now?
................
But if you're hemorrhaging wins at 3B, as the Mariners would be if they traded Figgins, then Kevin Kouzmanoff certainly stops the loss at 3B. He plays third and, essentially, keeps you from giving back the 20 runs you gained with Jack Cust.
Do the Mariners have anybody they like, and like a lot, for 3B after next year? Several guys, notably Liddi, DeJesus, ummmmmm Triunfel or Franklin in some permutations, etc.
Look. The M's are piling up juicy hitters here. You start moving them around the diamond as they pan out to be gold rather than glitter.
Some of those kids are going to prove out The Real Deals, and whether you move Franklin or whether Liddi has a big 2011 or whatever .... changing in Figgins for a 1-Year-Bridge MLB(TM) guy is consistent with what the M's need to be doing. Meshing around Ackley and Smoak.
................
... but say you don't like the kids you got? You've got to put the FA's someplace, don't you?
Kevin Kouzmanoff can also bridge two seasons, rather than one, in some variations.
So, yeah.
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Comments
If the + guy is of any value...this deal makes sense.
an extra 3 to 4 million to play with this year to shore up another position if they make this trade.
Kouz+ prospect+ 4 million in salary space > Figgins
I'm of the opinion that Safeco eats up punch and Judy hitters (save Ichiro) whether they are left handed or right handed and I don't see a huge bounce back for Figgins if he remains with the M's.
Kouz will be the type of player that you start the season with and and if things aren't going great then you Kotchman him, meaning you start bringing in players to get their taste of the bigs.
I like the pros of this trade a great deal and don't mind the cons at all.
Heck, if the plus guy is Bill Stein himself (who just turned 64 years young one week ago today!)....or even a beer stein....then this deal makes sense.
Ooooooh. I would like Jack a bunch if this comes down.
Wak would approve, too.
Before everyone jumps on board with the plan of trading one of the Mariners best hitters for a worse one, consider the case against:
1. There is no Safeco Effect for Chone Figgins. His game of putting up disciplined at bats, and drawing walks and hits, works here, as demonstrated by his good second half. Chone, unlike the other guy, has upside. He could reach a .400 OBP again. Perhaps if the Mariners had a youth rennaisance and things go well, he might.
2. Chone's salary is not excessive. He makes 8-9 million, and he's worth every penny. Who were the M's going to sign with an extra $3 million dollars?
3. The Athletics want Chone, Billy Beane is not a dummy, and he has no interest in making the Mariners a better baseball team. Last I checked, he was still the sworn enemy of Mariners fans. The reason that the Mariners did not have more division titles in 2002-2005 is that he took them, by force. When you trade with Mr. Moneyball, you should check your hand to see if your watch, jewelry, or fingers are missing.
4. Chone makes Ichiro happy. Ichiro likes hitting, and running in front of a methodical hitter who takes long at bats. The reason that Ichiro's stolen bases skyrocketed from 2009 to 2010, is that he was running in front of Chone, and not Adrian Beltre. Let us not upset Ichiro by dismissing one of the few teammates that he finds synergy with. If he is happy with how the team is developing, who knows what he has saved away, now that he has set almost all of the hit records. At any point, Ichiro could get into a groove, and hit .400, or go four for five for a month straight, or hit a three run home run. It would be fun to watch him close out his career in style.
5. Chone is not the reason the Mariners were lame. Do you recognize the folliwing names: Franklin Gutierrez, Casey Kotchman, Jose Lopez. These were mostly former Mariners players were they not? Mostly, these guys comprised the middle of the order, did they not? In 2010? This is a motion to tender these three names into evidence as "Defendant's exhibit A". Do we need to get into their slugging percentages, or will the Plaintiffs stipulate that they were really really bad?
6. Who is the second player? Is it one of the A's awesome young pitchers? I didn't think so.
Nothing furhter, thank you for your time.
But Figgins has never had a .400 OBP (cutting hairs, perhaps).
He's been in the .390's twice.....one sustained by an other-worldy BABIP and the 2nd by 35% more walks than he has had in any other season.
He's basically a .350 OBP guy. Which is a bunch better than Kouzmanoff. However Figgins has had 115 X-base hits over the past 4 years. Kouz has had 208. You don't need tons of homers...but you do need a bunch of guys who whack 40+ X-Basers, if you want to score some runs.
BTW, Ichiro will get to hit in front of Ackley.....I think he'll LOVE that!
Tell me who the other player is and I MIGHT get behind such a trade. But I agree that, while Figgins may not be the dreamy high upside dervish with super OBP we envisioned last year, Figgins still has enough OBP, baserunning skill, and baserunning speed, not to mention a more-than-serviceable glove at third base, to warrant looking at this very closely. Is 15 home runs and .280 OBP really better than 4 home runs and .350+ OBP? Really?! How much better than Lopez is Kouzmanoff?! Would we rather have Figgins at third or Lopez/Kouzmanoff?
Of course, the appeal here is dumping a big contract rather than just comparing players. We want more money to spend now and for two years after that. But Figgins came out of his funk in the second half of last year. His second half was .286 / .349 / .339. He WAS asked to go through a LOT of changes at the same time. And the clubhouse was a complete mess. Figgins' value is not so out of line with his contract.
Yes, it can be argued that his worth is less to THIS team. And if he really IS a bad clubhouse presence, then by all means move him. I was DISGUSTED with how he acted out publicly last year. But unless the second player being discussed has good value, I'm not sure I do this trade. In fact, unless I was convinced that Figgins' value is only going to decline, as Doc suggests, I would NOT make this trade. Personally, I'm not necessarily convinced of that fact.
I'd give Figgins the first half to show who he is. Granted there is risk in this, because you might have lost the best opportunity to get some value for Figgins and get out from under his contract if in fact his production is destined to erode starting now. But I'm don't think this is as certain as presented. I'd want more value than what's being offered. That's why the second piece is so important. Kouzmanoff plus fodder is not worth it to me. Gimme a shiny prospect I feel better.
Figgins "hot" 2nd half had a whopping .688 OPS.
With a .350 OBP you just can't hold down a corner spot when you slug less than .340.....not at $8M per.
Those are Billy North, Omar Moreno, Bert Campaneris, Sandy Alomar, Ozzie Smith type of numbers.
Except two of those guys were stellar CF's. Two were terrific SS's...and one a wonderful glove man at 2B. And all of those guys played in an era where OPS numbers were down, anyway.
If Figgins were a .370/.370 guy you could tolerate it. I don't see him getting there. Just me, I suppose. And certainly not for three years running.
And I argued for a long time that I would rather we had Lopez at 3B than Figgins. Odd duck, I know.
BTW...Figgins "hot" 2nd half was barely better than Kouz's "just OK" 1st half.
Kouz had a .270 BABIP for his 85 OPS+
Figgy has a .314 for his 84 points.
Somebody is due.
moe
I suppose my response is:
(1) I never said Figgy had a "hot" second half.
(2) Are you saying there is no place for low slug high OB players? That a mediocrity in terms of power with little ability to draw walks is more valuable than an OBP guy who is an asset on the bases and forces the pitcher to work harder?
(3) My main point is that if you're going to unload a guy who still has some value, at least get some better value in return. A shiny prospect with Kouzmanoff as opposed to org filler would fit the bill nicely. If Figgy stays, that's alright by me to. Give him a chance to reestablish value, then move him for a better return after he does. This argument hinging on whether you believe him capable of doing so.
My error. I assumed your reference to him coming out of his funk was also a comment on a "hot" performance. I stand corrected.
Figgins' value hinged on him being the player that put the M's "over the top" (from their '09 season and into contention).
Didn't happen. Now he's an $8M Punchy and Judy hitter, who isn't really a high OPB guy, who might hit in the .280's. All this on a team stifled by payroll issues. He's in the decline of his career. And he certainly established himself as no great clubhouse presence.
Right now...Kouz is his equal. In a different way, perhaps....
The problem with not selling Figgy to the first good offer is that IF he craps out again this year he has even less value.
There wasn't really anything sub-standard for Figgins last year. His BABIP was fine..a bit below his career avg., but his walks were at his second highest total ever.
There is a place for a low slugging, hig OBP guy. Unless Figgy gets up to .370 he isn't a high OBP guy.
Researching his career BABIP about 3 minutes ago I bumped into this article....One man's opinion, of course...but Kouz is at least as good as an investment.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/as-might-not-upgrade-greatly-wi...
For me, before reading that analysis, it came down to Kouz being his equal (or better) with the glove AND he raps out 50 X-Base hits with regularity. AND...he's a bunch cheaper. AND it appears there might be an arm in the deal.
Two for one, for a rebuilding team, is a wise investment.
moe
Agreed that a case can be made that the M's need what Kouz would bring more than what Figgy brings. One stat I ALWAYS look at when considering ballplayers is GIDPs. Each GIDP wipes out a good amount of contributions. It takes a scoring opportunity and most of the time completely erases it. It also greatly reduces the workload of a pitcher. Not to mention the morale-killing effect (I know, I know, fragment sentence). I expected to see that Kouz was a high DP guy, and I was right. What surprised me was Figgy. I expected to see that he was a low or very low DP guy, and I was right...except for last year. Until last year, he averaged 7 DPs a season, which is superb. But last year, his DPs soared to 19...that's BAAAD. Lopez has been over 20 the last two seasons, so chalk up aNOTHER similarity between Kouz and Lopez. It's eerie how, despite the differences in their appearance, their production is very similar. One huge difference, of course, is strikeouts. Kouz is a K King.
All in all, I probably would opt to deal Figgy for Kouz if the included prospect is enticing enough. Otherwise, I'd wait and hope for a better return. If Chone can restablish some value, he can be worth something to somebody, worth something better than Kevin Kouzmanoff.
I should add that having Figgins to bat second to start the year takes some pressure off Ackley to produce right away. Let Ackley settle in for a half season, let him bat in the 6-7 spot. If my premis is correct that Figgins has more value to another team than to us, he could fetch much better than Kouzmanoff from a contending team that needs his particular skills because of injury or the disappointing performance of a player.
If someone knocks my socks off with an offer this spring fine. Kouzmanoff I can leave for now.
And his no-trade clause to the As should ensure that this deal isn't going down: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2014077444_chone...
"I always said, it's a great thing to be wanted,'' Figgins said. "But I want to win here. I've said all along, this has been one of the best places I've ever played -- the city, the fans. I'll always love playing here. This is where I want to be, and until they force me out of here, this is where I'm going to be.'' I've been on the trade block for years, even with the Angels. Like I said, it's always a great thing to be wanted, but I'm a Seattle Mariner. I'm going to play third base unless they rip the jersey off me.''
Figgins briefly spoke to Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik at the event, and Zduriencik told reporters that their chat was the first time the two had spoken since the trade rumors broke yesterday.
I just let Chone know how things get started," Zduriencik said. "In this game, it's interesting how things get started. It happens all the time. You have general managers talk, agents talk about players - I'm not referring to this particular situation, but the next thing you know, someone is putting two and two together and coming up with five."