And an infield makeover (and MOTO) would be complete. Rendon, Ackley, Smoak and potentially Franklin in a couple of years.
I don't think there's much of a chance of that, but having Kouz here instead of Chone would make that transition easier and cheaper. ;) He can place-hold for that any day.
Failing that, though, who plays 3rd? Mangini? Liddi? If you buy on Liddi being able to stay at third in an org that apparently prizes defense above all else, I wish you luck...but I don't think that's a good buy.
Catricala is eons away if he can stay at the hot corner either AND hit enough to be....Kouz/David Bell.
Choi came in at 3rd but is a C/1B at the moment. E. Peguero or Littlewood are the closest to being legit 3B prospects but neither has taken a swing in the minors yet.
The guy Kouz would be place-holding for isn't definitely on the team yet. It's not like the Ryan/Franklin hoped-for scenario. So either we're gonna trade with the Royals for Gordon and move him back to his original position, we're betting on Rendon 6 months early...
Or we just like Kouz better than Figgins. Maybe a better attitude, maybe clearing out the #2 spot for Ackley, maybe liking the extra bit of power over the duplicated leadoff skills.
Call me when we add Rendon or Gordon. I'm with you, getting excited about a guy whose numbers have dropped every year he's in the league is a little tough for me. There's nothing wrong with the David Bells of the world, and it'd be nice to free up some salary for future years, but on the field it doesn't scream championship.
Baby steps, I guess.
~G
=== 2,000 Lbs. of Fire Ants, Dept. ===
If Kevin Kouzmanoff, a RH hitter, moves from Petco to Oakland to Safeco, he will have completed a Thousand Ants trifecta that boggles the mind.
Assuming Petco, Oakland and Safeco to be the three worst parks for Kevin Kouzmanoff to hit in (cut me some slack here, dudes), the odds against Kouzmanoff nailing exactly these parks in three attempts is 24,360 to one.
Hey, at least we don't have to amputate 50 points off the guy's SLG if he moves here. The surgery has already been performed.
.
=== Calling Card ===
Here is Tango's wonderful Fan Report on Kouzmanoff's D, which is pretty well what keeps him in a job. Kouzmanoff's D, we mean, not Tango's fan report.
Kouz has a rep for racquetball-quick hands at third, and a reliable arm. D-metrics agree.
..............
We will point out that the current regime is way biased toward defense. Apologists for the ballclub are warmly invited to go count their 513 runs again.
We will point out that this means that Kevin Kouzmanoff's name would have legs around the Royal Brougham office.
.
=== Dr's Prognosis, Dept. ===
Hopefully you amigos will forgive me a personal prejudice here. After 35 years of Bill Stein, I'm sick to the gut of him.
I find it depressing to watch the Mariners roll out baseball players that could have blended into the 1977 backdrop and never been picked out of a police-style lineup. I mean, I want to be past 1977.
Not that the M's will even obtain, or are even within shouting distance of, this tremendous victory: upgrading to a guy who played for the 1977 Mariners.
But y'understand. My feeling about Kouzmanoff is one thing. Objectively speaking, he's an average-mediocre ballplayer. A GM cannot draw up a Season Plan without including a few of those somewhere on the roster.
.
=== Don't Quote Me ===
Kouzmanoff has just a little bit of potential upside:
- Was only 28 last year, had only 2400 at-bats
- At 25, was kind of a minor star
- Had an unlucky BABIP last year
- Has had flashes: 84% CT in first half last year, .280+ AVG in second half
- Always gives you tough AB's vs RHP
I wouldn't give you a dime for the upside. If Billy Beane trades him, it means that Billy wouldn't, either. But Kouz could have his best season in 2011. I'm not banking on it, but if Kouz were an M we'd be willin' to hope for it.
Comments
EDIT: Doc had a third post in which he says what I thought. Missed it at first.
RE: Alex Gordon -- I am bullish on him busting out. He's had bad luck, but was more coveted than Ackley was coming out of college. He totally destroyed AAA when they had him back to learn LF.
RE: 3b in the org -- I don't know about defense (he was playing both 3b and LF in the AFL), but I think one of the most improved hitters was Nate Tenbrink. Strikeouts down. Walks up. 10 triples. 26 SB vs. 3 CS. Repeated all the good things in the AFL, too (.298/.375/.464). Bats LH.
But, yeah, in terms of impact player at 3b, it's lots of hope and nothing close to a sure thiing.
Oooh! I like that Gordon suggestion a lot, G.
Jack took that kind of flier on a less talented player (Kotchman) at a position of need last season.
So G, what do you see as being Gordon's main obstacle with the bat? I would love for Gordon to pull an "Ibanez" for us; it would go a long ways towards balancing the universe :-)
Their logjam is CIF (Butler and Ka'aihue now, Moustakas and Hosmer shortly). Moving Gordon to left gets them out of that, and I don't think they have a logjam in the outfield. I know Gordon was tearing the cover off the ball in AAA, and he looked technically sound at the plate to my non-scout eyes.
I absolutely expect Ka'aihue to be available once Moustakas and Hosmer come up, but he is 1b/DH only. In the Kotchman era, I would have swooned over a Kila pickup, but in the Smoak era he's pretty much redundant.
And while I'm at it, Moustakas and Hosmer have the potential to be two of the best young hitters to come up at the same time with the same team since -- I don't know -- Rice and Lynn? Manny and Thome?
They're going to displace someone, but Gordon was moved to LF specifically to be out of Moustakas' way.
Noob question: what does MOTO stand for? I've been thinking "master of the obvious," but that doesn't fit in this context.
Middle of the order
The Royals are willing to time-share Gordon in the OF, though, and just moved Wil Myers to the same basic position. He could be competing for a spot next year if AA goes well for him.
They don't believe in him. I'd be happy to do an outfield swap with them for Saunders and take Gordon off their hands. Alex isn't the greatest fielder, but he's better than Glaus and I expect him to start tearing the cover off the ball very shortly. When the GM says "well, we won't give him away for nothing..." that means he's very available.
I'd move on this the way the Rangers moved on Josh Hamilton. The humbling Gordon has received has been good for him. He walked into the pros like he owned the joint and while he didn't exactly bomb, he also wasn't the Alex Gordon that was expected. Having to fight for a spot, change positions etc isn't the worst process for him.
I think he could play 3B, but I'd be fine with him in LF too. He's still under club control for a few more years to boot. Go get him.
Pops, I like Tenbrink a lot, but I think he's an OF too. His D looks bad. Mangini, Liddi, and Tenbrink would all be great 3B prospects if they can stick there. I think Liddi might be the only one who can, and he's hanging on by his fingernails at this point.
Trade Figgins for Kouz + an arm, then throw that arm in with Saunders (or whomever) for Gordon and I'll be seriously impressed.
Then draft Rendon so my head can explode. ;)
Ichiro/Ackley/Rendon/Smoak/Gordon/Guti is a top 6 I can get behind.
~G
Thank you for helping me over my mental block.
... a rather lengthy piece on Nate Tenbrink over at MarinerCentral.com. It's something that I've wanted to do for almost a year now.
I delved down deep into the numbers and some of the things that I found will open some people's eyes.
Lonnie
I like your analysis. I think you left out the 26 SB (vs. 3 CS), which only makes it more impressive.
I'm much more bullish on Saunders than you, but better to have multiple guys who could turn out to be useful than none.
I think Tenbrink and Kevin Rivers definitely made the greatest leaps forward in 2010 in terms of hitters.