You point out that just about all of the speedsters in the majors, and there are a lot of them, play center. But most of them are backups or guys who quickly lost their starting job. What about the guys who are actually getting playing time? Here are the top ten in innings over the last 10 years:
Vernon Wells
Torrii Hunter
Carlos Beltran
Mike Cameron
Aaron Rowand
Andruw Jones
Juan Pierre
Jim Edmonds
Grady Sizemore
Curtis Granderson
Only one of those guys has elite speed (Pierre). Now certainly those guys are good or great all around players, but that's the point. The fastest players in the game don't actually see the field that much even though teams are eager to have them on the roster. Clearly GM's aren't "desperate" for speed there. Either that, or the speedy type of players they really like don't pan out, which may also be the case.
So we get back to my original argument, which is that the large numbers of fast players being put in center is mostly sign of how limited those players are. They don't have what it takes to play the infield (and catcher is certainly not an option) and so the only place you can play them is in center. You say that it would make sense to play such a guy in left or right, but it doesn't. That's where you put an Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Carlos Lee, etc.
You may argue that the mere fact that all of those fast players are in the league and in center is proof that GM's value speed there extremely highly, and you are probably right. However, the fact that it is next to impossible for those players to keep a starting job for very long even when their team really, really wants them to succeed is proof that being super fast isn't that critical.
Essentially, that speed IS being leveraged as you suggest, it's just getting done on a part time basis. Using your football analogy, the super fast baseball player is like the linebacker who comes in on 3rd-and-long. He isn't the starter who plays most of the downs.
Q. How about old guys playing CF? Does this speak to GM's view of speed there?
A. Cool Papa with another fascinating 'put:
Take a look at the speed scores again. While there are a bunch of elite track guys in center, there are also quite a few full timers there who aren't anything special, guys like Jim Edmonds, Vernon Wells, Aaron Rowand and Josh Hamilton (and Gutierrez). Even Torii Hunter isn't real fast. So if there is a really big spread in speed among center fielders, and speed is the most important factor, then there should be a larger spread in instincts/rout-running among CF's. That's because the less important a skill is, the larger the variation there will be in that skill in the selected population (if something didn't matter at all, the variation between players could be totally random). The only exception would be if the unimportant trait happened to correlate closely with something that was important, but I don't think that is the case here. So in order for there to be a small difference between outfielders in terms of instincts (or at least smaller than the difference in speed), then instincts would have to be extremely important, in fact, the most important trait.
Would cheerfully concede that the fact that --- > Jim Edmonds still gets to play center? indicates that --- > on some level, GM's must have flexibility about speed in center ... :- )
How many of these guys are in CF because of Veteran Entitlement?
The Mariners don't even ask Ichiro to move unless they know it won't offend him. Veteran Entitlement, for guys making huge $$$$ jack, like Hunter, Wells, and Edmonds, is the dominant factor.
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By the way, Inside Pitch always spoke of Jim Edmonds as though he were the very most gifted athlete the Angels ever had, a real Robert Redford freak of nature. Such as Edmonds "instinctively" timing his routes so that he would have to snowcone the ball while in a Superman pose :- )
When Edmonds came up, probably every GM in baseball thought he was a legit Gold Glover in CF.
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Q. Does Josh Hamilton have Veteran Entitlement? Or is he one stupid act away from washing cars again?
A. Rock beats scissors, and slugging .600 in the AL beats substance abuse.
Why Josh Hamilton in CF? Position scarcity. You have Ken Griffey Jr. in CF, you've got an extra MOTO bat compared to every other team.
Still, the Hamiltons and Wellses do raise a question about GM's views of speed in CF. I mean, there's a minimum standard on PB's at catcher, right? Having real slow guys in CF has implications towards Cool Papa and away from Dr. D.
It's one piece of the argument, not a decisive piece IMHO.
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Without a doubt, GM's will put bat-first players at any position. If he's -10 runs with the glove but +50 with the bat, GM's are okay with that.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Leaving us without much definite knowledge on the subject, IMHO ...
There are a whale of a lot of speed burners playing CF right now. 18 or 20 or 22 of the center fielders are blazing fast.
It's possible, I admit, that GM's figure, "Well, it's the only place I have left to get me some SB's."
Occam's razor has Dr. D believing that this Tsunami of greyhounds in CF is a defensive phenomenon -- a natural outcome of the game advancing, like speed linebackers on long-yardage.
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Gutierrez' fluidity in CF might neutralize his slowness and leave him as, say, the 5th- or 10th-best CF in baseball.
That his fluidity, in itself, has him better than every track guy in baseball? I think that's self-evidently implausible.
But Guti is a fine CF, and if his home park doesn't take it away from him, he's a key piece of a pennantwinner.
Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
Gut's career UZR/150: 19.3
Gut's career DRS/150: 23.4
Gut's career Rdrs/year: 23
Nearly half of Gut's PT has been as a corner OF, but his CF rate numbers are just as good. So far hes performed as around a +20 run defensive player in his career.
If you have a guy who can run....really run, you immediately see him as a CF...because it will negate (somewhat) the need for speed to the left and to the right of him.
No GM sees a tremendous speed guy as a natural Lf'er...unless he hits 30 HR's AND you already have a tremendous speed guy in CF.
At 2B and SS you look for quickness, glove and arm (SS). In RF you look for arm and some offensive production. And back to LF....most teams want a whacker.
So speed guys become CF's by default. No mystery here....and it basically means squat.
Guti can run...no problem. He would be a heck of a 200 meter relay guy. He can wield the leather, too. But the bigger deal is just how much somebody else will give up for that skill set.
I happen to believe that what he can bring in is more valuable to the M's future success than what he brings himself!
Trade him.
moe
RF and CF, Cleveland and Safeco, home and away. The numbers all agree he's good, as do all the fans, including me.
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+30 runs good or +7 runs good? UZR tells you one thing one year, another the next year.
+20 runs? Do you take that as a fact, or an opinion?
The question of #4 outfielders, Endy Chavez types, muddies the water. No doubt.
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A lot of the guys that you mention -- Cameron, Jones, Granderson -- came up as track guys, and then got Entitled.
Not trying to be stubborn, but that's the syndrome I honestly see. The GM's do their blamedest to put 10.4 guys in CF, and then after the guy slows down, he shows his Players' Association card and stays in CF.
It depends. I consider it fact that we have Gut's established level of performance after about 3.5 full seasons in the majors. You have 3 different metrics all saying around the same thing over the course of his career.
Whether those metrics give a 100% reliable take on Gut's defensive value or whether the single season defensive stats are reliable. is another question entriely.
Personally I think a mid +20 runs is his mid-range, but baseball is far from predictable.
Who do you trade him for though?
His value is at its lowest. Its hard to imagine a scenario in which the Ms get more value than just keeping him, given his underrated skillset and contract.
Taro, fair point.
I've been pretty up front with the trade scenario...but you have to find a prtner. I don't think (based on what I've read) that Guti was shopped around at all.
Boston seems like the natural place....
But you're right...you do need a 2nd team. I'm not sure Guti career best is something like '09. I think he trends toward '10.
Saunders would be a fine CF.
But without something to swap him for...he's ours.