Mark Reynolds, Gettable? Needed?

There's been a lot of rumors circulating that one of the first things Kevin Towers wants to do as the new GM of the Diamondbacks is to reduce team strikeouts.  It's a solid idea, as the Diamondbacks led the Majors in strikeouts by a large margin.  The first thing he's expected to do, is to unload the 3 time Strikeout leader Mark Reynolds.  I think the Mariners could easily be in the discussion. 

 

The Diamondbacks are said to be looking for relief help and contact hitters, and if there's one thing the Mariners have, it's relief help and contact hitters.  A trio that immediately jumps to mind is Lopez, Figgins, and League (though there are of course other candidates from the bullpen such as Varvaro, Olsen, and of course David Aardsma [though Aardsma would almost certainly be a disaster in Arizona].  Figgins would be the best fit for the Mariners to move, obviously, though of course the contract would be a problem.  Not necessarily that big a problem, as this doesn't appear to be a salary dump with 18 million in payouts to players no longer in Arizona is coming off their books after this season (and Mark Reynolds getting raises this next year and the year after), but the length of course gets in the way no matter what.  Lopez would likely be the best fit for Arizona, having terrific contact skills, and power that would likely blossom in the desert, as well as having an arbitration salary that will probably come out less than the 5 million plus Reynolds is owed next year.  Lopez is a well known DFA candidate, but at the same time, his skill set and ability to play a capable 3rd or 2nd base could let his agent bid him up much higher than he would recieve through arbitration, so I think there's a decent negotiating position for the Mariners with him.

As for why we would want Reynolds over the next 2 or 3 years?  He would immediately inject power into the lineup (whether he's replacing Figgins or Lopez), he's been among the league leaders in No Doubt Homers over the last 2 years, as well as hitting a fair share to right field, I think his 30+ homer power would survive Safeco.  His defense, over the last 2 seasons, has become adequate, and his ability to take walks has improved to impressive levels.  The issue is of course strikeouts, which as I stated before have led the majors 3 seasons running, and some would say that last season was the league figuring him out as his strikeouts increased once again and his season average fell below .200.  I think the improvement in walks was important, as it elevated him to elite levels, and the decline in home runs and batting average was a combination of playing through difficult injuries (Reynolds was listed as day to day twice due to being hit on the left hand by pitches, once after being beaned, and again when he reaggrivated a bone bruise on his hand at the beginning of September.  The decline in stolen bases from last year could also be blamed on injuries, as he strained his thigh in late April) and bad luck (.257 BABiP compared to career .323).

As much as Adam Dunn has been talked about here, Mark Reynolds is about as similar a player as can be found; impressive home run power, great patience, and lots of strikeouts, except unlike Dunn, Reynolds actually has some defensive value.  As for what would happen with Chone Figgins were Reynolds to be acquired without the trade involving Figgins?  Cincinnati is said to be looking for a leadoff hitter and Florida is now sans secondbaseman, but if that doesn't happen either, then Chone does have experience all over the outfield, and could be relied upon to play left (Endy Chavez style!) or super sub.  I think 2009 is a very attainable upside for Reynolds and that he may be the next version of Adam Dunn.

Comments

3
Taro's picture

Interesting case as sort of a poor man's Adam Dunn.
His BB rate has improved four years in a row, as has his FB%.
However, his strikeout rate has also climbed four years in a row and his LD has declined 4 years in a row too.. He is evolving into MORE of TTO hitter which is pretty amazing considering his extreme skillset.
The biggest concern though is the career 681 OPS vs power pitching (565 OPS this past season). Given the strong pitching in the AL West and AL in general, he probably is a guy who won't translate well.

4
moe's picture

Reynolds for Figgins?  I like it.
 

5

As I said before, he played large chunks of the season with an injured hand, which likely means he was swinging one-handed (the last 17 games of the season after reaggravating the deep bone bruise on his left hand, he batted .081/.207/.081 with 27 strikeouts in 51 plate appearances).  If you cut out a few days for him to recover after being hit on the hand each time, and a few days to recover after the beaning, and assume that he should have been DL'd after reaggravating the bone bruise, (I know this is a lot of "if you"s, but he played through a lot of injuries) you get a batting line of .218/.340/.485 with a bad  luck BABiP of .251 still and strikeout rate of 34.4%, which is only very slightly higher than his previous season of 33.7% (his overall strikeout percentage of 35.1% isn't staggeringly worse either).
According to StatCorner, Reynolds swinging strikeout rate actually fell from his last 2 seasons, and his looking strikeout rate rose drastically.
The bad line against power pitchers is a bit worrisome, and I hadn't noticed it before.  Swinging one handed this season certainly would have hurt more against them (and the .203 BABiP certainly didn't do him any favors), but even last season's .843 OPS success against them was held up a bit by BABiP luck.  But I'm still inclined to believe that Reynolds could hold his own against them in a healthy season at 27, 28 at least.

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