About a Pitch-Stalker - Reynolds, Cust, and Dunn

As much as Adam Dunn has been talked about here, Mark Reynolds is about as similar a player as can be found; impressive home run power, great patience, and lots of strikeouts, except unlike Dunn, Reynolds actually has some defensive value.

Well ... :- )  Hey.  All-round great read amigo.

It's a matter of taste - I don't personally think of TTO players as variations on Adam Dunn; I kind of don't even think of right hand hitters as TTO guys.  :- )

Adam Dunn is about as hard a 7.0, 7.5 runs as you're going to get.   Dunn is 40 homers and 100 walks in the bank before the first pitch, bab-eh, and that's not so much a TTO underdog as it is simply a first-class cleanup hitter.

Dunn doesn't even rely on AVG or 2B -- his performance doesn't fluctuate much with BABIP -- 'cause the walks and HR's are always there.

For all you amigos who said the 2010 Mariners should steer clear of Adam Dunn 'cause, don'cha know, our players are going to be able to field their positions?   Bah Humbug.   Hope you enjoyed your avant-garde 500 runs, pokey.

...............

Asking Jack Cust, or Russ Branyan, or Mark Reynolds, to comp to Adam Dunn -- is simply asking too much.  And Mark Reynolds doesn't need to be Adam Dunn, any more than he needs to be Babe Ruth.

A righty Jack Cust is more the idea with Reynolds, and Reynolds is already very close to what Cust is as a finished product.

.

He regularly faces Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Mat Latos, Chad Billingsley, Jorge De La Rosa, Hiroki Kuroda he's not facing typical NL fringe pitching.

He's not, and also I'm not sure whether he's hitting these guys :- )

I notice that Reynolds was destroyed the year that he went to the playoffs, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reynolds was a "soft" hitter.

Most TTO pitch-stalkers, those who are lesser than Thome and Big Donkey, those guys do make their living off mistakes.

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Taro sez,

The biggest concern though is the career 681 OPS vs power pitching (565 OPS this past season). Given the strong pitching in the AL West and AL in general, he probably is a guy who won't translate well.

True dat.  Tsuyoshi Nishioka, he ain't.

You would not be talking about a dude who was going to take a low-away Jered Weaver slider and line it into the right-center gap.

But supposing that Mark Reynolds was going to give you this:

  • 135 games
  • 30 HR
  • 80 RBI
  • 80 runs
  • 120 OPS+ in Safeco, cause of the walks
  • And most of the damage against pitchers who weren't stars

That's a pretty good support player, right?  You'd be glad to have him hitting 6th in a revamped lineup.

.

=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

Mark Reynolds isn't a star, and unlike Plastic Man at Safeco, he isn't going to save the planet.

But the Mariners have run into a real shortage of 5.7 runs players, or even 4.7 runs players, and if they could flip JLo for Mark Reynolds, that would be a move Dr. D could get into.

Not as The Big Move.  But after the other moves, I'll take Reynolds.

.

About a pitch-stalker,

Jeff

Comments

1

Like Doc boomerangs back to eye ratio with the regularity of Old Faithful, I remain stuck in the infinite loop of "order matters".  Two years ago I noted that in building a ball club, the ORDER that one assembles a team is critical to actually succeeding at getting ALL the part needed to win a pennant or a ring in place AT THE SAME TIME.
Mark Reynolds?  Fine ballplayer.  My comp would be - the righty version of Russell Branyan - only allowed to play full-time -- and one who has likely gotten a decent boost in numbers from playing in Arizona - (while his HR home/away split is even - his OPS split is .852/.784).  Trust me, while Arizona is no Coors - it DOES have the ability to inflate the performance of a select sub-set of hitters.
Baseball has long had a distinct distaste for anyone who cannot get a hit 1 of 4 times.  The .250 BA, (not .200), is the REAL bottom line for what the bulk of baseball deems acceptable.  It's the ONLY reason Branyan couldn't get a full-time gig prior to Seattle - (and why even after his stellar year, he couldn't make any money).
The .198 BA from 2010 doesn't scare me.  The .235 ROAD BA for his career DOES.  That's in "average" parks, against the (perceived), inferior NL pitching.  The problem is - Branyan's .230/.330/.490 line (as a lefty) was driven by MONSTER HRs that could make it out of the Laurentian Abyssal.  Park don't matter to Branyan.
Park will matter to Reynolds - especially safeco.  So, yes, while you do need some right-hand hitters, I think a "reasonable" projection for Reynolds in Safeco would begin with his .240/.330/.460 road line -- and chop off 20 points of average and 40 points of slugging.  That turns him into a .220/.310/.420 (.730) guy - hitting high 20s HRs and fanning 220 times.  Didn't the club just spend the last 4 years with a .730 so-so glove RH power hitter, who could "just barely" hit HRs in Safeco - who was only getting 1, 2 and 3 million to play? 
BUT - the part that triggers my "order matters" hot button is: (contract is '11 - '13 (5; 7; 11 million - (500k buyout)).  Locking in 5 and 7 million for the next two seasons isn't horrible.  The 11 million would be (if he doesn't pan out).  But, the REAL question is opportunity cost. 
In sooooo many ways, it's the same "type" of move that Kotchman was.  He's a 1b/3b.  You ALREADY have a 3B locked up for multiple years -- you've got a supposed 1B (Smoak) that will hopefully be a mainstay for the next decade.  That leaves DH and OF for most of his ABs.  (And, of course, the plan is for Ackley to play 2B, so Figgins isn't going to pick up ABs there).
Okay - I can appreciate the "concept" of the McLemore can-play-anywhere "popcorn regular".  But, I view the value of that guy as *ONLY* materializing AFTER you have quality plugged into most of your lineup - where you'll be happy to have the swiss army knife on your bench, should all the rest of your talent stay healthy - but you won't really miss "much" if/when any number of players hit the DL.
Once-upon-a-time Figgins WAS that guy for LA -- but that was when they HAD talent everywhere.  But, clearly, Figgins was not valuable in that regard to Seattle in 2010?  Why?  Because almost every position was a black hole. 
There's a point at which having flexibility becomes useless - when moving player X from 1B to 3B simply means that the guy at first is going to hit .600 instead of the guy at third - there's no benefit.
The key here is - could there be a point in time when adding a Mark Reynolds would be a solid move?  Yes.  Is that time today?  I don't think so.  Given the specific talent in the pipeline, the positions in play - the league/park transfer downsides - and paying 5 - 7 million to a guy for 2 years, (while you're rebuilding) ... I'm just not seeing the fit.
In the end, Reynolds feels way more like the fan-happy love-child of Beltre-Lopez -- yes, he can draw a few walks to off-set some of those Ks -- but does he REALLY have the power to overcome the Safeco slide that almost all righties suffer? 
The upside is that unlike Beltre, you'd be buying low - (after the .198 season) - and when he's already signed relatively cheap for a couple of years.  But, with Beltre, the club was at least getting the BEST 3B glove in the game.  Reynolds is only a 'decent' glove. 
Honestly, I could see Reynolds as a "plan B" guy -- the guy you settle for when your primary target slips away.  In the end, I just don't see him as a significant change (production-wise) from Lopez.

2

What I've been wondering about:
Raul is due $11.5M from the Phillies for this coming year only.  Maybe they'd eat $3-4-5M of it?
Looks like he had 5.4 RC/27 in a down-ish year.  Actually looks like he just went back to being the solid player he was in his late-20s, early-30s -- before he suddenly became an all-star at 34.  No drop off in walks or doubles, only dipping back to the teens in HR.
I'm thinking mostly DH, with only the one-year commitment, and you probably give the Phillies a prospect (someone who's an unlikely Safeco hitter -- Johermyn Chavez?) to get them to eat the salary.
Upon further review: maybe they're less likely to dump Raul now that it seems unlikely that they'll re-sign Jayson Werth.  But it seems that his best Philly days are behind him and they might want to move on.  We know Raul can hit in Safeco -- and I don't really think it would be Griffey II.
You need to surround these kids with somebody who can hit a little.
No one has mentioned it, so I'm just wondering . . .
How much salary would the Phillies need to eat before it becomes interesting?

3

While I concede that BABIP is significantly luck-driven a lot of the time...we made those arguments for Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, etc etc...we were confident they'd come back to something closer to normal...and they never did.
When you fan 200+ times a year, BABIP isn't the point anymore. There's something wrong with the way you work the strike zone. Period. You've got holes in your swing that real pitchers will exploit...you've got a slow swing...you're bad at recognizing breaking pitches...whatever it is. And if you keep INCREASING your K rate...that means you're not adjusting at all. Period.
Reynolds will die a horrible...painful death in the AL. Please note that his OPS against the AL, career, is .693 with 73 punchies in 51 starts (!!). This one...this one will not translate even if he goes to a hitter's haven like the Skydome or Texas. If you goes to Safeco...total and complete DEATH.

4
moe's picture

Doc, Right on!  A terrific thread!
Might I throw out another name?  How about Dave Kingman?
Kong was a bit less of a TTO guy, simply because he walked less...but it was a generation when walks were less valued, as well....and minus a Joe Morgan or Ricky Henderson (and a few others) almost EVERYBODY walked less.  Kong struck out a ton for his day (when everybody struck out less) but was a very valuable player with a long career for a bunch of teams.  He had some great years....interspliced with some "average type" seasons.  You probably can't use his Cubby years as the standard because he was almost certainly aided by a certain Wrigley factor, but even playing in cavernous Shea Stadium he was a 100+ OPS guy. 
And Kingman couldn't field a lick.....Reynolds can.
Whoever has Reynolds has the very reachable upside, over the next 4 seasons, of having one great year, two average years, and one down year.
Great being 120+ OPS.  Average being in the 100-110 range.  Down being in the 90+ range.
He might even have two very good years.
He's a very likeable guy, from my perspective. 
And as always, I'll argue that Lopez isn't the guy to offer first.  Send 'em Figgins and a young arm (to balance out the slary differential).
You know I'm a big Mike Wilson fan. I haven't been shy about that.  Wilson's upside (with the bat) IS Mark Reynolds.
Wemay have a shot at getting the real guy, pretty cheap (and I'ld still have Wilson on the roster).
We have young arms.  We have OPB (Ackley).  We don't have a masher.  Figgins and arms are expendable. 
My goodness....even Z can figure out this scenario, can't he?
Ichiro, Ackley, Smoak, Reynolds, Saunders, Lopez, Guti, meat-for-a-catcher, and Wilson #1 or Wilson #2 is a pretty fair lineup.
I would be excited.  Throw in Wilson or Mangini, Tui, Hulett (I like that guy) and another meat and it HAS to be world's better than this years offensive nightmare.
To quote one of those Star Trek guys,
"Make it so!"
Chekc out Kingman guys, he could play.
Moe

5

Here are Reynolds' splits against the NL West teams:
Colorado Rockies - .777 OPS in 62 games (OPS+ of (wait for it) 93)
Los Angeles Dodgers - .785 OPS in 56 games (OPS+ of 92)
San Diego Padres - .755 OPS in 58 games (OPS+ of 84)
San Francisco Giants - .769 OPS in 53 games (OPS+ of 89)
Against the "good pitching teams" that people are arguing prove he can hit in the AL...he hit 10% worse than he hit career. Which teams did he beat up on?
The Nationals, Astros, Brewers, Marlins, Pirates, Cardinals. Only one good team on that list. He's pounding on weaklings, guys...and hitting like Gomer Pyle against the good pitchers. In the AL, he was OUTHIT by Milton Bradley on the intolerably bad 2010 line. OUTHIT! By Milton forking Bradley!
Oh yes...it gets better too...what's Reynolds' battling line away from Arizona (about 80% the hitter's haven that Coors Field is)? .235/.323/.461 An OPS+ 8% worse than his showing at home.
This is nto a SABR-find, Doc. This is a SABR-find in the OTHER direction. At least from the perspective of the Mariners. This guy will not survive the AL...much less survive it hitting in the death trap for right-handed flyball-hitting whiff-machines with only OK eye ratios.
This guy is Adrian Beltre times about fifty trillion on the "holy HANNAH is this guy annoying to watch when we need him most!" spectrum. PASS. PASS WITH the hate-fueled fire of a thousand exploding suns!!!
Thank you.

6
K's picture

But I still think that a potential best five hitters of Ackley/Figgins/Ichiro/Gutierrez/Smoak is way too light on HR power. A hypothetical 95 OPS from a TTO type would be a boon. Doc sees Reynolds in that mold; Matt does not.
Matt's probably right, but if Reynolds were about 10M cheaper, I'd be for throwing his spaghetti against the wall.

7

...I would certainly agree that we need to add power to the line-up...and if Reynolds were cheap, I could see him as a good very termporary add as long as it was understood that he was not a big time run producer just because he hit 35 dingers. He would be an average bat at best in this league in this park...you'd have to view him as another nice piece to have...not as the center of a line-up (i.e. he could never EVER bat clean-up for us).
But Reynolds is too pircey to "gamble" on when we have so many offensive holes to fill and when he's such a major misfit for this park.
And what's worse...he's not even a TTO star! He doesn't have a good enough EYE to be considered a stalker. He's more like a "guess" hitter. As a general rule...K/BB 2 = guess-hitter. There's a big difference.

10
moe's picture

Where else do you find a power hitter with Reynold's potential, 5.5 runs a game or more, for $12M for the next two years....Unless you're talking about Mike Wilson.
Reynolds is a bit of a cheap gamble.  Figgins is an expensive gamble.  s brings a skill set the M's need.  Figgins brings a skill set they have.

11
Taro's picture

I'm much less concerned about NL to AL hitting conversions than SP conversions, but Reyolds is one of the primary guys I'd be worried about..
He struggled against good pitching all his career and theres a tad less fringe in the AL.

12
Taro's picture

Andruw Jones in a platoon situation could be really cheap.
Somebody like Brad Hawpe would be a dirt cheap gamble. Similar guy coming off injury-riden down season. I'm skeptic as to whether Hawpe can bounce back, but a bit less so than I am with Reynold's conversion to the AL.
You hit the bargain bin for the these types IMO.

14

I like Upton...but I don't like him enough to trade Pineda and other big time prospects for him.

15
Taro's picture

I absolutely trade Pineda+ for him, but I would not trade Ackley or Smoak in addition to Pineda. We're talking a Hamilton, Griffey, ARod type talent and already locked up for the next five years.
This is probably the lowest his value will ever be.
Honestly I would probably be willing to go as far as Pineda+Nick Franklin+Michael Saunders+Dan Cortes+more for Upton+Stephen Drew.

16

and that changes the equation...Drew being at a psition we actually need.  Sheesh
But no...I would not trade Pineda for Upton...Upton is a mediocre left fielder as is, IMHO...nothing special.  He's got lots of potential, but that does not mean he's going to wind up as valuable as Hamilton...

17
RockiesJeff's picture

Living in CO, I have watched and greatly appreciated Hawpe. There was a reason he was waived last summer. He really declined rapidly mid '09. Bounce back? As with the stock market, beware of the dead cat bounce.
I also must say, no numbers but old school, when Reynolds came up with runners on, I was never really concerned. Strikeout ratio.
Great thread everyone, thanks.

18

Though not nearly the strikeout king, not as patient, and not as powerful, but younger and left handed;  Ian Stewart seems to be available as well, and the Rockies are already looking at Jose Lopez

19
Moe's picture

Ian Stewart has an OPS+ of 95 and 97 the last two years...and can't OPS over .785 IN COLORADO!

20

that it used to be.  Since the humidore was installed, the Rockies home park has become much closer to neutral.  Stewart's home/road splits for his career are .795/.770, with more home runs on the road, he also doesn't turn 26 until next year.  And like Reynolds, played through a series of minor injuries and a stint on the DL with an Oblique strain toward the end of the year.

21

...but it's still hitter friendly...
F/S matrix park values (R/G/Side) 2003-2010:
1.615
1.233
1.117
0.884
0.829
0.909
1.055
0.786
So we've got a +0.8 to +1.0 run park where we used to have a +1.2 to +1.8 run park.  But Coors has still been the #1 to #3 hitter's park in all of baseball since the humidore.

22
RockiesJeff's picture

Like Safeco or west coast fields, much can depend on the weather but Coors still has good carry with the thin/dry air - thus the sauna to keep balls weighted down. Some of those players mentioned above such as a Lopez or a Stewart, GDP's or K's all look the same in every park. Each year Stewart, like Iannetta, are supposed to have "their year." So far they only have spurts. Trading a problem for another sometimes works. But most of the time it doesn't.

23

They had to build the park big to compensate for the altitude, and still didn't succeed.  Then they got the humidor to help out and the HR dropped significantly, but IIRC doubles and triples are still through the roof because the outfielders simply can't cover enough ground out there.  It's a beautiful place to see a game even though it messes up traffic for me when I'm trying to get downtown, but it does its fielders no favors.
Which is what makes Ian Stewart's utter LACK of doubles astonishing.  He's basically the same hitter against RHP and LHP for his career, and even for home vs. road.  But he's never clubbed 20 doubles in any season.  He averages the same number of 2B and HR a year.  Spending half his time in Coors should help him in that dept but he hits far more of his doubles on the road. 
Stewart is a mystery to me.  There's NO reason he should only hit 20 doubles a year.  He is apparently an unmotivated player, or at least that's the belief in Colorado.  He just doesn't care enough to improve his game.  That's not the same as saying there's not a TON of ceiling left to find.  We're staring at his floor - the kid is oozing talent.  I guess that makes him Jose Lopez redux.
I would be willing to take a chance on Stewart if it's a swap for Lopez and some effluvia.  We'd have to move Chone, but so what?
Stewart has a .782 career OPS, with a .332 OBP.
 
Chone has a .736 career OPS, with a .359 OBP, with two sub .700 performances in the last 3 years.
 
  
Stewart's 25, and Chone is 32.  I'd take the kid if I could then move Chone for something.  That frees up the #2 spot in the lineup for Ackley, where he belongs, and gives us a decent #6ish hitter with tons of upside.
  

Just give Wedge a cattle prod to use on the kid.
~G

24
RockiesJeff's picture

G-Money, thanks for your words. I looked back and wasn't real clear on my part. Not multi-tasking today. Agree about the park. And about Stewart being a mystery. Hitch in swing, IMO, leaves him vulnerable but he has lots of talent. Given those players? I would take my chance on Stewart but he should, injuries issues aside, has not tapped a whole lot of his pure ability.

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