=== Strategy? or Execution? in the 11th, Dept. ===

Again in the 11th.  Ichiro and Figgins get on -- two on, 0 out, the acrid smell of death in the air for the stRangers.

Frankin Gutierrez, like Kotchman a blog darling, has the key AB this inning.  He first fails to get a bunt down, and then he strikes out.   The run expectancy drops from 1.6 to less than 1 after Gutierrez' whiff.

Is Gutierrez brought up in the postgame cyber-catharsis?  No, he's got an exemption.  Look at the guys who feasibly could be part of the problem...

Jose Lopez is the guy who needs to be moved in the order.  Why, did he fan here like Gutierrez did?  No, Lopez walked.  So you'll pardon Dr. D's confusion, again, as to why the lineup is the huge problemo. 

The two guys all y'all blog-o-sphere wanted at the plate to drive in table-setters -- Gutierrez and Kotchman -- were up, with 0 out and super easy RBI's on a silver platter.  When they failed, we blamed everybody else -- including two guys who did not make the crunchtime outs, Griffey and Lopez.

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=== If We Got a Line On It, It Would Be A Minnow Dept. ===

Pretty funky that saberdudes would put the kind of emphasis on batting order that they do.  By 1980, Bill James had shown that the difference between one order and another was 1-4%.  You Barry Bonds from 3rd to 7th, the 3rd slot in the lineup suffers, but the 7th slot goes ballistic.

Yeah, I know about the lineup optimizer.  Short version:  if we've suddenly started thinking that Griffey 7th, instead of 5th, is important, it's a clear case of a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.  Lineups aren't what matter.  Run (talent!) differential is.

Billy Martin knew this before James did.  As a joke, he used to put names in a hat and let guys pull the lineup out of it.   It's who's playing, not when they hit.

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Granted, with the right lineup, the guys higher in the lineup gain a few AB's.   Is that what caused the problem on April 30?  Everybody in the lineup had the same # of AB's except Jack Wilson / SS got one less.  

Is it OK that Don had Wilson hitting last?  It is?  Then batting order had very little to do with the outcome.

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=== Byrnes ===

This one, I'll give you :- ) because Byrnesie just looks overmatched at the plate, and has all year long.  But then, so does Ryan Langerhans, and don't even go there on Jack Hannahan's 600 OPS.

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=== Dr's R/X ===

The Mariners have offensive problems, and they have them in large part because they have prioritized extreme defense, notably at 1B.

This is a ballclub on pace for 64 homers.  The thing that had me assuming the loss, from inning 8 on, was that the Rangers were capable of hitting a homer at any time and we were not.

.................

How many runs if you swap Langerhans for Byrnes or Sweeney, amigos?  Five runs?  Less?  That's what we cutting-edge sabermetricians see as the pivot point in this seasons, the 25th man?

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We don't get to script Friday's game as a failing of the 25-man roster.  You had Kotchman and Gutierrez at the plate with gimme RBI's Friday.  In fact, you had everybody getting clutch AB's in a 12-inning tie game.  Think about it.

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Take the good with the bad.  You've got gold gloves up-and-down the batting order, and with the game on the line, yer gold gloves couldn't even make contact.

The whipping boyz, Griffey and Lopez, are the ones that got on base in extras.  Even if the 25-man is incorrect right now, it still wasn't the root cause of this loss.

This is an extreme pitching-and-defense team.  You're not going to suddenly make the whole ballclub click by squeezing a couple of runs out of the bench.  It's going to be a tight race and you're going to lose -- and win -- a lot of very tense games.

We've got Kotchman and Byrnes, rather than Bay and Dunn.  You've got your 120 ERA+, your nine slick gloves and your 85 OPS+, just like y'wanted.  Deal with it.  

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Your friend,

Dr D