In regards to the generic concern about lineup order - I agree. You are correct that the majority of lineup moves do not have "dramatic" impact on run production.
But, I do have to say - specifically in regards to the Junior/Kotchman issue, my sense from your writings, (and I apologize if I'm mis-reading), is that your perspective seems to be strongly influenced by your pre-conceptions about both players.
From day one to present, you have clearly voiced your dislike of the Kotchman acquisition. And, while there is no doubt that Kotchman did not contribute offensively in regards to last nights game specifically -- my emotional response to your comments is probably best summed up as "Art thou protesting too much?"
For the season - Kotchman - batting 7th for the bulk of the year - leads the team in HRs and RBI. I don't think it unreasonable to suggest that if your #7 hitter is leading your team in RBI, then perhaps your lineup construction is less than optimal.
But -- *MY* perspective is also colored by my pre-season takes. I've been a Kotch supporter from day one - saying he's likely to post an .800 (or above) OPS. I also said before the season that Griffey was toast. Through one month - there is zero doubt that my sense of both players has been upheld statistically.
But - even given that - *MY* complaint and desire to swap Griffey and Kotch is based on the basic concept of rewarding production and effort. From day one, Kotch has done everything professionally and effectively. Griffey had struggled in regards to production. Keeping Griffey batting 5th while Kotch is 'hot' and Junior is 'cold' harkens back to the Bavasi/Grover Veteran Entitlement (TM) days.
If GRIFFEY is moved down in the order while slumping - that would send a message that might be of help to any of the younger guys who might be moved down in the order at some point. The longer Griffey is left hitting 5th, the more detrimental it becomes when you move some younger, (less entitled), player down in the order.
I think many of the fans, who grew up on Griffey the Hero, are just as resistant to the concept that it really is over. But, they aren't getting paid to make the hard decisions and win games. The ultimate sad reality is that Griffey has one XBH and only 4 RBI on the season. The reality is that at the end of April, the Seattle team got more RBI from the #9 slot in the order (8) than they did out of the #5 slot (6).
Ultimately, the 'blame' for offensive impetence cannot be blamed on any single hitter. The reality is that of the top 11 batters - the club has 5 producing UNDER .600 (and Figgins barely avoids this at .605. My position is - if you've got 6 of your top 11 hitters at .605 OPS or less, it makes little sense to be complaining about the 5 hitting .721 and up. Nor is it unreasonable to want the bulk of those 5 producing hitters higher in the order than those not.
NOWWWW Dr. D gets it. :- )
If we could only squeeze a little more efficiency out of our 4-man bench and out of our batting order .... why, slap me silly, we'd win the 1-run games. And the 80 OPS+ Moneyball-UZR team would work just peachy.
Do I got that right?
This weekend, we suddenly that 1-run records are driven by skill, particularly by roster flexibility, and not by luck? Do we got that right?
In our torment, we're going senile and reverting to gradeschool, baseball-card managing. I mean that in a good way. The onset of senility is measured in years or months for Dr. D now, rather than in decades. Or tell me if it arrived without my noticing.
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You ain't going to change this team's destiny by changing the 25th man, guys. Ease up on Wok here, what say. He didn't bloop the punch-bunt in the 10th. Casey Kotchman did.
Wok didn't strike out with 2 on, 0 out in the 11th. Franklin Gutierrez did.
1. Don't point fingers. 2. If you do, point them at the guys who struck out. ;- )
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=== Take Out A #2 Pencil Dept. ===
After the horrible Ranger kick to the man region, we glanced around the 'net, notably at the #1 blog, the one that so cherishes Dr. D, and found a consensus on one, or all, of the following:
- Don Wakamatsu got really dumb, really quick
- Eric Byrnes must go
- Ken Griffey and/or Mike Sweeney must go
- The batting order blows chunks
- Who can trust this administration to do anything right (heh!!)
- The lack of in-game options cost the Mariners this game
Nice that fans care. :- ) That's number one.
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=== Strategy? or Execution? in the 10th, Dept. ===
After Colby was out of the game, in the 10th inning the Mariners immediately mounted a threat. Ken Griffey Jr. -- using his two swing keys, engage the legs and go the other way -- led off with an infield hit that beat the shift. If Griffey could hit a grounder to the left side of 2B against that defense, he'd bat .600. In this AB, he hit 1.000.
The ball wasn't hard-hit, but the fact is that Griffey did intentionally hit the ball off-field, giving himself excellent chances for a hit against a left side of the field that had one glove ranged against him.
Bradley then doubled, leaving two men on with 0 out.
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The NEXT at-bat, the one with 0 out and the outfield way in, is your huge at-bat. You've got your first baseman (your 1B) up. All he needs is a fly ball -- except Casey Kotchman is, as SSI advised long ago, about the most likely candidate you could find for a harmless ground ball right when it will sting the most.
Kotchman took two pitches and then blooped a check-swing popup to third base, defanging the inning.
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Can somebody explain to Dr. D, in one-syllable words, why this failure is blog-hated Griffey's, as opposed to blog-darling Kotchman's?
The fact that Friday's 10th inning is interpreted as an incrimination of Griffey, rather than as an incrimination of Kotchman, demonstrates that the script is running on auto.
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Granted, Sweeney then grounded into a DP, and that against a RH submariner. But all ML hitters have a healthy chance at a GB there, Sweeney not notably more than some other benchie's. Sorry, this inning is not a prooftext that Jack Hannahan is the medicine to our 0.3 homer disease.
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Comments
"Can somebody explain to Dr. D, in one-syllable words, why this failure is blog-hated Griffey's, as opposed to blog-darling Kotchman's?"
Because our combo "DH" is a worse hitter than the average NL pitcher. This team really needs a real left fielder so we can get Milton out of the field.
Griffey walks in April last year: 13
Griffey walks in April this year: 5
The pitchers will let you know when a hitter is done. They don't fear Junior anymore.
and 2. I was asking why the 10th and 11th innings were Griff's failure. ;- )
Topic du jour last night was, why doesn't Wok have a bench and DH that can give him the victory in those situations. Topic du jour was off target.
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Griffey is going to lose his job very quickly if he doesn't show something soon, don't sweat that.
I think I've figured out the root of most our disconnects, Doc.
Your article was responding to stuff you're reading that I'm not. (I've given up on LL and USSM and don't even lurk there any more). I read most of MC, but hadn't seen the specific anti-Griffey posts you were harping on.
On the other side - 'some' of my responses are not direct responses to ONLY what you posted - but from what I'm getting (tone-wise) at MC. If your tone matches that of what I'm reading at MC, I'm (unfairly) painting your positions with a wider paintbrush. It's not (specifically) that I'm not failing to see the details of your post -- but that I'm also responding to other net rhetoric. I'll try to do a better job of indicating such in the future.
I agree with what you said 'rat cheer, San.
When I'm pushing forth a position with vigor, it's rarely in view of anything said here, MC ... or LL, for that matter. :- ) When reacting to a position -- which we hope we don't do as a very large fraction of our material -- it's usually in reaction to what I would view as an angry, dogmatic consensus driven by a 10,000+ person audience ... still we hope it comes off as light rather than heavy...
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If you and I were in the bleachers live I guarantee you we would get along splendiferously :- ) ....
But the internet is by its very nature given to misunderstandings and flame wars... am thankful on my end that SSI and MC minimize them as much as they do...
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Where I can do better on my end, jus' lemme know San-Man...