Great piece, Doc.
No question that Johnson had ALREADY gotten good before he left Seattle. His final 5 seasons, when his walk rate plunged from the 5-7/game level down to the 3-4 per game level, he was CLEARLY a HoF to be guy. Not a question at all. The only question was health and longevity. The '96 season obviously put the fear of injury risk at the forefront. But, remember that Clemens was a guy who was also allowed to leave due to age/injury fears. Not like Seattle has cornered the market on pitcher injury phobias.
That said, regardless of the situation, the choice to go all-in on *ANY* player ... be it Randy Johnson or Albert Pujols is one where the choice limits FUTURE options. When you commit $20 million a season -- "for a long time" -- then you limit options for a long time. Texas got nowhere while AROD was eating up 20-25% of their payroll. And as good as Johnson was for Arizona, he didn't bring any titles to Houston or NY during his visits.
Of course, one could easily credit Johnson with almost single-handedly winning that one World Series over the Yankees. He's got a career 3-0 record in the series, after all. But, of course, he only reached the penultimate stage that one time, too. His 0-5 record in NLDS starts demonstrates the cold reality of the post-season. Being a Hall of Famer guarantees nothing in a short series.
That said, I would agree that making Felix a fixed piece for the next 10 years is about as safe a proposition as one could hope for. No history of arm problems. No perceived mechanical flaws to suggest he's going to break down at any moment. And the club doesn't have body one on the offensive side to hint that spending the money on Felix is going to allow the next Pujols to escape after their 6 years of club control.
If Seattle wants to do what Atlanta did, and be a contender for a decade, then building around Felix is the only move that DOES make sense, (given their current reality). The Ichiro money will come off the books before anyone currently in the tubes on the offensive side becomes a Hall of Fame threat. So, while I am naturally cautious on long-term commitments on any front ... Felix has the age, the arm, the performance to support a true long-term, (200 over 10) style gamble. (I just hope the career-ending injury insurance covereage policy is solid).
Q. Was it justifiable, at the time, the Mariners letting Randy Johnson go? After all, who knew he'd become a freak, start winning Cy Young awards and pitch till he was 45?
A. I'm not sure that I follow you guys, offsite, about Randy Johnson getting good after he left?
His record was 43-6 his last three years in Seattle. (Is it okay to mention wins and losses?)
He was 75-20 his last five years. His ERA+ was 190 his last three years; in 1995 he was 18-2, 2.48 with 297 strikeouts and 64 walks.
Did you guys miss 1995? And 1997 wasn't any different.
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Who thought Randy Johnson was going to be a freak? Bill James and I, for two. In 1993, when Johnson was 30, Bill James wrote that Johnson would still be a star when he was 40 years old.
It's axiomatic that the higher your K rate, the longer you last. Johnson was obviously Nolan Ryan v2.0, and we wrote that at the time.
I published all of these arguments (and a bunch more) in 1997 and 1998, and the Mariners were well aware of them, but they simply couldn't abide the thought of paying Johnson market money and then Johnson getting injured.
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Granted, at the time, about 30% of the baseball people we talked to, argued "here's a 7-footer, bad back, who throws 98 mph... if he loses a couple mph due to the back, you're toast... you can't risk it" ...
They were the minority. When Johnson went on the market, the industry bid furiously for him.
Other teams around baseball, of course, declined to share the Mariners' squeamishness. So Seattle missed out on the last 10 years of the career of one of baseball's greatest legends.
My greatest regret in sports -- 35 years -- is that the Mariners missed out on the career of Randy Johnson, history's most spectacular pitcher. He should have been ours. We didn't have the guts to keep him in town, we we could have wallowed in his performances for another decade.
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I regret missing out on Randy Johnson, even more than I regret that the Jr-ARod-Unit-Edgar-Buhner Mariners never won anything.
More than I regret that Chuck Knox never got to experience the moment of holding the Super Bowl trophy. More than I regret the Pac-10 gleefully leaping on its chance to take out Don James with a sniper rifle. More than I regret the, IMHO, fixed 2005 Super Bowl or the, IMHO, fixed Sonics-Suns-Barkley series.
Missing out on Randy Johnson is the worst thing that ever happened to me in sports.
Some things go beyond RC/27 and 85 wins vs 88 wins the following year. When the Boston Red Sox sold Babe Ruth, I'm sure it pencilled out well on paper. But what about the fabric of baseball history? Are Ruth and the Yankees and the 20th century captured by wOBA?
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If Seattle continues to lowball Felix, it will be absolutely no surprise if he goes on to become Roger Clemens, win 300 games elsewhere, while we whine and cry the whole time at what might have been. Just like with Randy Johnson.
That doesn't mean it isn't reasonable to trade Felix, of course. This is not an argument that you have to sign him. He'll bring back quite a bit.
But be aware that if you let him go, the next 15 years could be awfully melancholy. Factor that in.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
The San-man has somehow stepped up his game lately... who'da thunk it possible..
That said, I would agree that making Felix a fixed piece for the next 10 years is about as safe a proposition as one could hope for.
If the M's were ever going to try to lock in their own Greg Maddux, when are the odds ever going to get any better...
The massive commitment ossifies part of your future, but then again, the Big Boys have their Sabathias and you don't want to bring knives to the gunfight...