Echoes, Chone Figgins - II

 === I don't know what this has to do with anything, but I thought I'd bring it up Dept. ===

I watched a TV broadcast years-ago, in which three satellite feeds were on the screen -- one with Bill James' talking head, one with Kenny Lofton's, one with the sportswriter's.

James had the task of educating the writer in three minutes.  The guy asked James, "Why is Kenny Lofton the best leadoff hitter in the game?  Why not Craig Biggio?"

Bill said, "In order to be a great leadoff hitter, you have to do three things.  You have to hit .300.  You have to take a walk.  You have to steal bases."

Lofton beamed.  The writer argued for Biggio.  Bill said, "Oh yeah.  Biggio's a great player too."  (Biggio was his favorite player for a while.)

............

Figgins last year:  .298 AVG, 101 walks, 42 SB's.

.

=== vs Crawford Dept. ===

In this article, we comp'ed Carl Crawford to a number of impact leadoff men -- he's Damon -30 BB, +25 SB, +GG ... he's Jacoby Ellsbury plus power...

Going at a tangent, we comp'ed Figgins to Ellsbury:  Figgins - BB = Ellsbury.

So it's a three-point parking job to get from Crawford to Figgins: 

Carl Crawford

- 10 HR

- 5 2b (total of 50 SLG points)

+ 50 BB

+ infield

-------------------

= Chone Figgins (lifetime averages)

Figgins is a reallllly fast player.  Take away 15 wallbangers from Crawford, and add 50 walks, and you've still got a pretty good setup hitter.  The fact is, the last three years, Figgins' RC/27 is a little better than Crawford's, and Chone plays the infield.

.

=== Fo' Mo' Years Dept. ===

FOUR years?  You got me there.  

But if you want a quick little debrief, blip on over to this b-ref.com page and sort for "age 32 to end of career."  The comp list is based on factors designed by Bill James.

Brett Butler, obviously, played well until he was like 40, and right away it hits you that the M's saber guys are throwing Figgins into the ageless leadoff hitter category -- the Loftons, Butlers, Rickeys and them.

I love the Polonias, Mumphreys, and Mookie Wilsons, because that's how good Figgins is.  Not the Butlers and Rickeys and those guys.

The Mumphreys and Mookies played well at 32, 33, sometimes 34, but didn't play into their middle-late 30's. 

I'd like to hear the M's SABR guys respond to this specific point:   great leadoff hitters play till they're 40.  Fairly-good leadoff hitters play till they're 34 or so.

............

It's not a comprehensive post here.  Haven't even touched the idea of 4 years or any of that.  Just a little noodling, trying to get used to the idea of Chone.

Cheers,

jemanji






Comments

1
Taro's picture

Figgins is a nice player for sure. Hes pretty much a 3.5 WARish player that can play ANY position. He gives you a ton of flexibility in that he could be a regular even if you already have a starter at every position. In some ways hes a rich man's McLemore.
It just really come down to the $.
Figgins is coming off a career year, so I'm a little concerned. If he gets $13-15mil over 3 or 4 years, thats too much for me. $8-10mil per year for 3 years would be awesome, but might be unrealistic. Something in the middle I'd be a little lukewarm about.
Hes a good fit as player.. I just wish he had his career year last year or something. Its all about the cost. I'm not AS concerned about the years, since these player types age really well. I wouldn't want go beyond 3 if possible though. The Ichiro, Lofton, Rickey types last long, but the guys a tier below that often decline significantly at age 34-36.

2
M-Pops's picture

31 year-old lefty coming off career year with a division-winning Angels team...
This has got to be some kind of sick joke, and I am not laughing.

4

Taro...ease your mind a tad...in this market, there is absolutely NO CHANCE AT ALL that Chone Figgins gets 13-15 mil per year.  None.  Zilch.  Nada.
I'll be amazed if he gets more than the rumors 4 years 30+ mil (I'm guessing 4 years 36 mil, but we'll see)

5
Taro's picture

I hope you're right. The high end players were still played handsomely last year and Figgins is coming off a career year..
I could get behind something like 3/26 with an option year. I'm not crazy about the idea of Figgins, but hes a good value at that price and could fit anywhere.

7
M-Pops's picture

Trying to get excited about Figgins and looked at batter vs pitcher stats.  Some pitchers he hits well:
Guthrie in 17 AB (.412/.444./529)
Beckett in 22 AB (.364/.440/.455)
HARDEN in 29 AB (.276/.364/.310)
Edwin Jackson in 16 AB (.563/.588/.813)
Sabathia in 16 AB (.313/.421/.625)
Millwood, Washburn, Johan Santana, Scot Feldman, and Beuhrle give Figgy fits.
 

8

Will guarantee you that is one thing they are thinking of, when 'blending' scouting and saber, guys who will give them a pro AB against an intimidating pitcher.
They must have known for a fact that Beltre is going to decline arby?  Being approximately the opposite of that...
..............
.421 OBP against Sabathia, .364 OBP even against Harden, wow, Ichiro and Figgins would be  practically Rose and Griffey Sr. :- )

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