...because the Mariners are in the list of two or four teams prominently linked to...
...
...
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Everyone.
LOL
Seriously...in the last two weeks at MLBTR, Seattle has been linked strongly to:
Bay, Lackey (multiple times), Harden, Jackson, Granderson, Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco (just signed with the Phillies), Scutaro, Delgado, a few other mediocre pitchers and Chone Figgins today. LOL Apparently...Zduriencik's market strategy is...SATURATION. In order to get free agents to take the Mariners seriously...he's plastering the team logo in every player's agent's office, getting the team to leak insider tidbits about everyone to the press so that Seattle's name comes up as often as possible, and talking trade when the players he wants aren't yet free agents.
POTD comin' Spec... sure enjoy the badminton matches you bring to the table bro'... this rat cheer is not a POTD, but if you want to mosh off the below, I'll be interested to see whatcha'll got :- )
Jason Bay is extremely similar to (a faster) Jay Buhner, offering a steady .500 SLG along with a gorgeous .380 OBP, as well as the 80-90 walks and 150 K's ... it is no accident that GM's are on him like bums on a baloney sandwich...
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=== LF ===
The negatives are obvious and almost cliche'd at this point. What would be interesting, would be to hear Jack Zduriencik's specific response to the charge that you don't want Bay's -12 UZR in Safeco where LF defense is pitched as life-and-death.
Bay has been a real whipping boy for the saber crowd that steers its ship by the "overlooked" defensive compass... here is an example in which the usual "correct / incorrect" tag is slapped onto the idea of a large Jason Bay contract.
Obviously Capt Jack has a rationale regarding the LF-glove-in-Safeco issue.
Again I doubt that Bay's defense is as bad as advertised, because his Speed Scores are actually very good - 111 in 2008, for example. Bill James says, by the way, that Fenway makes left fielding stats look terrible.
BP's RATE had him at 99-103 last year. As James points out, it is only when the metric systems converge on one point that your confidence goes up. UZR is great if and only if you ask the key question: is it leading a consensus?
It's very possible that Zduriencik's rationale on LF defense is simply that Bay's a pretty decent defender.
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=== RH In Safeco ===
Just as obviously, Zduriencik has an expectation of how much Safeco would affect Bay, and his judgment is "less" rather than "more" (else, he wouldn't be chasing Bay at big dollars).
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LH in Safeco is a Golden Principle, but game theory masters understand that no principle is absolute; other Golden Principles compete against whichever Principle you have in mind at the moment.
For example, the one that says you don't want the other manager shooting down your MOTO at will in the 8th with a cheap LOOGY. And the one that says you want character guys and competitors. And the one that says Bay is a legit cleanup hitter in the American League.
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Last year in the Sox' one trip to Safeco:
vs. Jakabauskas - 1-for-2 with 3 walks
vs Olson - 1-for-4 with a 2-run homer... first inning, 2 out 1 on, HR to LF
vs Vargas & pen - 0-for-4 with a strikeout
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=== Upside ===
Shandler said, pre-2009, that Bay's 2007 was an injury outlier, and that Bay's upside is .320/.420/.600 with 35-40 homers.
One thing about that: except for 2007, Bay always slugs .500 with a beautiful OBP. He also did this in the AL in a pennant race.
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=== Perspective ===
Bay is a marquee RBI man who can hit 4th and challenge the great pitchers of the game... like we say, the negatives are there but at SSI and at Royal Brougham, no absolutes need apply...
Jemanji could cry for joy at the fact that every time a marquee name comes up, Lackey, Bay, Jackson, Crawford, the M's are right in the thick of it...
Comments
I wonder to what extent Zduriencik is proliferating his options, vs. to what extent he's representing a hand, as it were.
Everybody wants options, but not everybody pays the price to develop them...
No on Jason Bay. Yes on Harden.
could you be a little more concise, please. We've got our bandwidth to think about.
I'd much rather Bay than Figgins (of course Vlad is my #1 pick). Everyone agrees Beltre was bad this year with the bat. Chone has had 2 of those 2009 Beltre seasons in the last 4 years! Only downside signing him. Lifetime 99 OPS. Would also pretty much eliminate Tui with Figgins/Ackley at 2B/3B, or a move to LF.
Would anyone be up for signing Mark McLemore to 4/30? That's what Figgins looks like to me.
Harden, Vlad and trade as you wish Z!
Bay is a really bad fit for the park defensively and offensively, isn't an underrated asset, and is probably going to be paid according to 2007-08 FA standards. Our top 2-3 prospects are both primarilly LFielders and both great Safeco-fits. Saunders himself is MLB-ready. Bay doesn't make any sense at all in my mind.
Harden, on the other hand, could make a lot of sense. Hes one of the true elite when healthy and on the mound. He a local supposedly looking for a one-year deal to renew his value coming off of a flukishly down season. If you can baby him and get 125 IPs strong out of him, he might be worth $15mil and you'll be paying him $8-$10mil. His impact in the playoffs (if healthy) is enormous. Hes the kind of high upside signing we'll need to be a suprise team next year. If you can baby him during the regular season and get him in the playoffs healthy, hes pretty much a $35mil player (during those 5-7 gamers).
I don't want Figgins either for a pricy long-term deal... Maybe Z is driving the price up for the Angels. Or maybe Figgins is going to come cheaper than we think..
But, I think the truly important aspect in this is the opinion on Saunders. If you believe Saunders is going to be productive in the majors, (and hopefully soon), then yes, Bay could be a questionable pickup. But Bay is a .900 OPS guy, who has already shown the ability to produce a .900 OPS in the AL, so league slosh concerns aren't an issue.
The Safeco impact is obviously a major concern. But, Pittsburgh has a stadium that plays much like Safeco, punishing righties and rewarding lefties. Safeco is probably a bit worse, (though somehow Pittsburgh went from a neutral hitters park to a pitcher-skewed park pretty much the day Bay left ... hmmmm).
For reasons that are more intuitive than analytical, I am low on Saunders upside as well as his speed of transition. So, if the club wants to search for offense on the open market, my first preference would be for help in LF. And while I'm deathly afraid of seeing Adam Dunn wearing anything other than a batting glove, I have zero faith in the UZR take on Bay. Only one LF in baseball had more outs than Bay in 2009, so while he might not be fantastic, I'm not buying the idea that Carlos Lee and Ibanez were both drastically superior to him defensively, (which UZR says).
With Griffey returning, I don't see the club sinking major money into a DH, (who would split time with Junior), but a righty-LF, who maybe could DH a bit, with a 4-OF rotation? I could see that working. Don't get me wrong. I'm not gonna cry if Seattle opts to hand LF to Saunders ... and I certainly hope he proves me wrong. But, I fear the 2nd coming of Wlad with Saunders ... great talent, but not adaptive.
The REAL plus in all the latest is that the club seems to be fishing hard for OBP. Whether you're talking Figgins or Bay, the club is DESPERATE from some .380 OBP guys. Yes, they are desperate for power, also. But, without some high OBP guys, the power guys get walked with men on and hit solo dingers. You need BOTH for an effective offense, so the club is better if they can land either.
I don't think Bay is one of those guys that UZR got wrong. PMR, RF/9, RZR seem to be in agreement that Bay has been a below-average fielder since around 2007 (although interestingly they think he had a better '09). Much of his low rating though is also just his very poor 'arm'.
I don't like it, only because you'll be paying about $4.5-5mil per win if he gets $15mil+ per year. Double the fact that we're covered at that position and I really don't like it.
With a guy like Seth Smith available in trade and Gabe Gross in FA, I just don't get going after Bay at all.
You want to have Gabe Gross's love child, admit it, Taro. :)
:-)
Right now it looks like he fits more as a #4 outfielder who can take over if Saunders tanks. Hes got some upside as a regular. Don't know if theres any space now though.
Guess now I'm hopeful that Figgins and Vlad are great friends :)
Would like Lopez to stick around but Figgins sure feels alot better to me at 2B until Ackley is ready.
Best of luck and I'll be rooting for you Chone, but won't be surprised if your stay with the M's is Sexson or even Silva-esque.
I encountered a lot of facts to support my argument!