I do find it interesting that the two guys BA put way too high (EOF and Fieirabend) I had way lower on my lists as soon as I saw them throw once. But That's probably more template-driven luck than prospecting skill. I was way off on some of the position players that I thought had high upiside. *shrug*
But currently, this is the Mariners' system as I see it:
Dustin Ackley (right out of college and right into mega-blue-chip territory...I bet he gets a cup of coffee in 2010) - A/A (Ceiling/Probability)
Carlos Triunfel (raw and undisciplined still...needs to learn baseball intelligence) - A+/B
Matt Tuiasosopo (sort of the reverse of Triunfel, very polished an intelligent in approach despite mediocre K/BB...limited actual ability) - B/A-
Michael Pineda (maybe the tools scouts have infon on him that I do not that keeps him out of top-10 lists...everything I've heard suggests he's very intelligent on the mound and has plenty of stuff to induce very high K rates and K/BBs) - B/B
J.C. Ramirez (I've been following him for the last three years and trying to figure out whether I trust his future or not...the potential is definitely there for him to be a #2 starter) - B+/C+
Adam Moore (Color me perplexed about the folks who don't like Moore at the plate or behind it - he might take a couple of years to be productive...definitely looked raw at the plate in '09 cuppa, but I really liked his swing) - B-/C+
Mauricio Robles (on the list because I'd get lynched if I didn't include him...tools scouts love him...I don't...I think if he's the key to the Washburn deal...the key is stuck in the lock and the door is now jammed) - A-/D
Zeke Carrera (RAPIDLY improving EYE, fantastic short, quick stoke, well above average defensive outfielder and 30+ steal potential if he ever gets more intelligent on the bases) - C/B
Mike Carp (Pretty much set, at this point, as to what we can expect...he's basically 2007 Vidro with a better walk rate IMHO) - C/A
Daniel Cortes (10 dollar arm and 10 cent head - may never learn to be an adult, but if he does, the ceiling is still very high) - A-/F
The next tier includes guys like Greg Halman (took a giant step backwards in 2009 and was overrated by BA to begin with IMHO), Tyson Gillies, Dennis Raben, Kasparek, Paredes, and Cleto.
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=== #10 Eric O'Flaherty ===
Had looked good in short innings at AA and got a quick callup to Seattle, where he posted a 4.09 ERA with lousy sabermetrics.
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Baseball America: Missed out on a college WS championship after skipping to pros rather than Oregon STate... no regrets; made the majors quickly...
When fresh, throws 90-94 "that darts all over the place" and hard 85 slider... deceptive delivery...
Moxie for late innings...
Had lost velo by the time he got to the majors... struggles physically with starting...possible lefty in bullpen in bigs.
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Three Years On: Pitched effectively in 2007 for the Mariners, though Dr. D never cared for the tiny MPH separation between his slider and fastball...
Did indeed have some issues holding velocity, on and off, which is weirdly a trait of M's lefthanders recently.
Hit the AL windshield in 2008, was waived by the Mariners moved on to the Braves org, and was quite effective in relief in the National League... right now, is a fringe ML pitcher on the rise.
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=== #11 Carlos Triunfel ===
Was going to do ten of 'em. How could we resist #11? :- )
In 2006, had just been signed internationally. No American experience.
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Baseball America: Mariners a major playa internationally ::coughAroldiscough:: ... other clubs offered more $$$$, but Trifunel was most comfortable with Seattle's people ::coughChapmancough:: ...
Potential 5-tool (AVG, PWR, SPD, FLD, THRW) shortstop, he looked so good that the M's will consider letting him play class A ball at age 17. Above-average runner, good hands, strong arm, accurate arm...
As natural strength, already (at 17) driving balls with backspin, which will carry out of the park as he matures...
Advanced approach to at-bats, hung in well against older pitchers in the instructional league. Mariners can't wait to see what he'll do in 2007.
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Three Years On: Triunfel is in exactly that period of his career, where the fans kind of forget him to some extent, but the loss of luster is a false one.
Showed the speed potential as an 18-year-old in 2008, swiping 30 bases in high-A in 108 games (which pro-rates to 45 in a full ML season).
.........
High Desert is arena baseball, of course, and his good stats in 2008 came at home. But 18-year-olds are supposed to be playing high school baseball, not A+ baseball, and Triunfel laced hits around the field like Edgar Martinez.
Had a broken tibia in 2009 and will return ... oops, just did return!, thanks Jason ... when his leg is ready to go.
With his footspeed, athleticism, and arm, it says here that nobody should be writing Triunfel off of shortstop right now, any more than we should have been writing Tuiasosopo out of the infield two years ago.
Triunfel has lost some of the sparkle dust in the minds of some, but for me it's him and Ackley way ahead of the pack. Triunfel could be Hanley Ramirez or something.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
No Poythress? I'm not sure what his ceiling is but to me he's one of the most intriguing players to watch in 2010. That AA team is going to be an interesting one to watch in 2010. Ackley, Triunfel, Poythress, Gillies, Pineda, Ramirez...
Following Doc's advice to post multiple times.
Ackley: Have you noticed that the Twins only got really bad long enough to draft Joe Mauer and since then they've been back in the playoffs just about every year? Mayyyyyyybe that was Bill Bavasi's genius stroke?
Triunfel: I think they are very anxious to see him on the field -- key fact: he played SS last night. Carlos as a long-term SS changes the whole off-season equation in my book. If he's a 2b-3b option only, then you've two more of those in Lopez and Tui and he's not "solving" anything. They need to know two things: (1) is he "can't miss" and (2) is he a SS? If the answers are "yes" then the whole dynamic of the future roster changes.
Tui: Doc is casting this guy in "The Natural" and Matt sez "limited actual ability" -- we'll see. I love his potential but still fear he'll just have some "Bo Jackson" "flashes of brilliance" and fade.
Pineda: Gutsy call, Matt. Maybe it's his beanpole 6-5, 180 frame. But yeah his numbers have always impressed.
Ramirez: Seems ranked too high given the degree of uncertainty.
Moore: You gotta like cathcers with any sort of offensive upside.
Robles: Lefties with heat -- you gotta love 'em. Thus, the interest in Chapman and Kukuchi. Curious why you're so down on him, Matt. Can't he at least be an Arthur Rhodes?
Carrera: Love his numbers -- the speed and the patience and he hits LH. I think he is key because if he (or Gillies) develops into a role player, then Saunders (or Guti -- oooh, maybe I shouldn't go there, but I like Saunders a lot) can be moved to shore up another spot.
Carp: I think Carp is much more than a LaHair, but I do like Poythress better for the long-ball potential.
Cortes: Just a total crapshoot, which is appropriate as return for Yuni.
Aumont: The Z regime didn't invest the high draft pick, so they'll use him as they see fit; therefore, he'll relieve. But he still has the high heat and the unhittable tailing two-seam thing. So maybe he's a set-up guy, I don't leave him off the whole list.
Poythress: At first I thought he was a bad fit for Safeco, but further review indicated that the Z crew knew what they were doing. I think he's got a better chance to be a role player than Carp or Raben.
Gillies: See Carrera -- speed, patience, LH. I assume that is what Z will want in a 4th OF.
Fields: Looks to me like he will help in the pen, and we need help in the pen. The draft pick is a sunk cost.
Lt. Hill: OK, so jumping to the head of the French-Olson-Vargas class is not a giant leap, but I think he will make it, and soon.
Kasparek: A ways away, but certainly the one to watch out of the low-A Clinton pitching group.
Liddi: Also a ways off and raw, but you gotta like 23 HR, 44 2b, 53 BB even if it was High Desert.
Poythress - I loved the pick, don't get me wrong - I think we need some actual data though before he hits our top-ten ahead of some of the other guys. He's not an Ackley...he's not going to hit the bigs in 2010. He's got a good eye and massive power, but no fielding position. We'll see.
Aumont - Mechanics are severely broken and not showing much improvement...I see him as the next David Aardsma, which either means the Mariners will figure out how to make him a useful reliever soon...or he'll get shipped off somewhere else and end up a journeyman
Gillies - I didn't leave Gillies out. He's in my second cut list. And I agree with most of the comments...he lacks Carrera's line drive capabilities but makes up for some with more speed
Fields - OK...this was a bad oversight on my part...he should be in the second cut list. Like Aumont, he's got serious mechanical problems and his front foot never lands in the same place twice (I used that key to write off Emiliano Fruto...and I was right)...so he's not a top-10 guy. But he should be mentioned.
Nick Hill - He might deserve second-cut mention just because he's probably close to the big leagues...but he's not much better (in terms of pitching skill) than Doug Fister (who I also happen to like) and thus the upside is not extreme.
Kasparek - I did include Kasparek on my list (second cut)...he's very far away but his upside is higher than most in my second cut list
Liddi - Calling it right now...Liddi is worthless. Maybe we can sucker someone in a trade, but he's never going to hit in the big leagues.
On Robles, I'm down on him because his line is like the joke from Bull Durham...5 innings, 5 runs, 5 hits, 5 walks, 5 Ks and 5 hit batsmen. He came to Seattle looking all impressive in Detroit's system and promptly self-destructed in Seattle. I just...get a bad vibe with him. Ability is there (hence the high potential grade)...I doubt the polish.
On Carp vs. Poythress...I could see Rich ending up in my top 10 ahead of Carp early next year...giving it time to develop first.
This may be a case of me hanging on to an original scouting report too long. I was VERY high on JC when we signed him...and I'm kind of sticking with my position until he absolutely proves me wrong...but I could be way off on this one.
I really...really like Pineda...we'll see if I get proven wrong and the tools scouts beat me...it's entirely possible.
Good stuff. Wasn't really viewing it as a "critique" -- just some additional comments.
So I was glad someone decided to comment on my list...and you did catch a couple of big mistakes on my part...that'll teach me to hammer out these lists while at work instead of going back to my war room spreadsheet (yes...I really do have a war room spreadsheet with full depth chart, analysis and my own prospect ratings set up on my home machine...I'm just that lame...LOL)
I lost my early morning free time to a chipped tooth (g'ah!!!)...so writing in from work....LOL
In #7-9
Thanks guys for chunking your posts out, too.
I like reading index-card length posts anyway ... would rather riffle through 30 index cards than navigate through one long page... but as mentioned, that helps us on a lot of levels.
:daps: