Baseball America 3 Years On, #7-9

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Spectator's picture

Just FYI, Chen had major injury issues and was never really a prospect after that.  So he's a bust in those terms, but not necessarily in the scouting.  Before getting hurt, he was generally ahead of Valbuena, who helped us get Gutierrez.  FWIW.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

How did his injury issues prevent his hitting AAA pitching this year?

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Matt sez...

I do find it interesting that the two guys BA put way too high (EOF and Fieirabend) I had way lower on my lists as soon as I saw them throw once.

Good sign that your feel for the game is comin' right along :- )

...........

In fairness to BA, Feierabend did compete, and EOF is competing, creditably in the majors and that's ahead of the curve for prospects who ranked where those two did...

Feierabend might have been a 100 ERA+ guy for several years if he'd maintained arm strength ... as we all know, a #8 org ranking or whatever, isn't a prediction that a pitcher is going to win 17 games in the AL...

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Ackley: Have you noticed that the Twins only got really bad long enough to draft Joe Mauer and since then they've been back in the playoffs just about every year?  Mayyyyyyybe that was Bill Bavasi's genius stroke?

LOL :- )

Supposing that Ackley hits his 75th-percentile upside Spec... what do you see from him...

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

SABRMatt

Michael Pineda (maybe the tools scouts have infon on him that I do not that keeps him out of top-10 lists...everything I've heard suggests he's very intelligent on the mound and has plenty of stuff to induce very high K rates and K/BBs) - B/B

Pineda's verrry hot with us in the peanut gallery these days...

48k and 6bb with a 2+ ERA at ... wait for it ... High Desert (!?) ... would love to know the last time anybody did that...

Literally would not expect Stephen Strasburg to go 48:6, 2+ ERA at High Desert...

SABR Matt's picture

...Pineda is about as good a prospect as there is at the A+ ball level in all of baseball.  Literally.

I have to give that some weight.  Unless his arm is about to explode, I don't understand why he's not better thought of.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

For a guy who didn't get national attention at his signing out of the D.R., he's getting about as much respect as a Mariners prospect is going to get.  A year and a half ago, scouts from other orgs were projecting Pineda as a possible TOR.

From a saber standpoint, I can't imagine how a A+ pitcher *could* do any more than Pineda just did.

It would be completely reasonable to rank Pineda as a #1 org prospect, except that Ackley's already knocking at the MLB door and Triunfel is a freak.

Spectator's picture

I've spent too much time on that question than I'd like to admit, but when you look at LH guys who are really tough to strike out, crank out doubles and hit HR in the teens, I come up with this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/staubru01.shtml

or this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baineha01.shtml

But you've got to add speed to those equations.

If he gets bigger and stronger and develops more power (and gives up the ultra-low K rate as a result) then I see: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o'neipa01.shtml

As I've said, if he totally maxes out, then he loooks like the younger, slimmer, base-swiping Tony Gwynn but mixed with a bit more of a George Brett classic #3 hitter  -- but I'm not going there yet.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

One of my fave players when I was a kid. 

Still, I'll go my own way here and opine that Ackley has a fair distance to go, powerwise, to hurdle that one.  Staub was actually a #3-4 hitter, pretty well into power territory, in my day.  20 homers back then meant something different...

Still, great visual.

..............

The Tony Gwynn / Wade Boggs / Pete Rose template is definitely available to Ackley in the dream scenario.  He doesn't have to get stronger to do that.

I have a real inkling for that Harold Baines comp...

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Don't forget that the 1970's were different.  :- )

.........

Charlie Hustle was in the top-10 in walks, seven times.  If Ackley manages that I think I'll take it, LOL.

1,566 career walks vs 1,143 strikeouts, I see...

Hard for Gen X or Y or whatever to relate to Rose.  As a leadoff hitter, he got serious MVP consideration every year.  He was a "superstar" when the term meant something, a recognized on-base, start-the-rally guy before OBP was called that...

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Going back to the Great Depression and WWII, I see... very Jamesian of you...

What a player that guy was, a lefty 3B/1B who posted high OBP's with gap power... when the rest of the boys went off to war, he went all Jeff Kemp-to-Steve Largent on the fillins...

Great, great comp for Ackley's hoped-for peak.

SABR Matt's picture

So I look way back for good comps when I think of them.  Hack was also FAST too...he played in a 0-steal era, but he led his league in steals 3 times and was perennially in the top three-five.

Another potentially comparable player from the way-back machine: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ricesa01.shtml - Now in the 20s, having excessive walk rates was rare, but his 3 BB/K was just plain GOOFY good plate skill.  I don't think Ackley has quite THAT much speed, but he's a legit 20-30 SB threat if he gets smart on the bases (see: Jeter, Derek...who, BTW, is another Ackley comp).

That said...you're right about Rose...he was more patient than I'm giving him credit for.  I always think of him as one of the great consummate HITTERS of all time...he didn't walk enough to prevent himself from logging oodles and boodles of 200 hit seasons - not that walking a lot was common in the 70s.  Just saying...he wasn't as patient as (say) his teammate Joe Morgan.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

Was a guy who (1) won the MVPs, and (2) at the very moment he was winning MVP's, nobody had any idea how good he was (pre-sabermetrics).   See how many guys in baseball history fit those two criteria...

We all kind of figured, he's the most all-around player in the greatest post-1945 lineup, so give him the MVP...

Nobody had any idea at all what the 120 walks meant, the 170-190 OPS+ while serving as the best defensive MI in baseball...

................

Morgan was also an Ichiro-smart player, a true team leader in the sense that Ichiro is in the WBC ... the other team would call for a pitchout and Morgan would be sauntering back to 1B, hands on hips... Bill James opined that other teams would call pitchouts just for the joy of watching Morgan decipher it...

Pound-for-pound, maybe the most nature-perfect ballplayer who ever lived.

Picture Ichiro with -- era-adjusted -- 140 walks, 25 homers, winning the gold glove at SS.  Joe Morgan was a man-among-boys even on his own Reds teams.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

without clicking over there, thought I remembered him as a HOF'er...

This might be the Ichiro-type route, great legs, 120 OPS+ ...

SABR Matt's picture

And, skills wise...he's Ackley + a bit more leg.  I really cannot envision a scenario where Ackley isn't an impact major leaguer by 2012.

Spectator's picture

Or not.

Staub was a slugger only in his age 25 and 26 seasons.  After age 27 he never had a SLG higher than .480 and almost always had HR in the teens.  And at age 23, he had 44 doubles and only 10 HR -- the kind of line we might be anticpating from our man Dusty at that age.

Baines, on the other hand, was verrrry consistently a 16-25 HR guy from age 23 right up to age 40, and his career SLG is 35 points higher than Le Grande Orange (.465 to .431).

Baines, with speed and defense (of which he had neither), is HOF hands down, no?

Anyway, the most relevant numbers are these, from Ackley playing in the same league, same parks, many of the same pitchers:

Fr. 296 AB, 119 H, 20 2b, 3 3b, 10 HR, .591 SLG, 30 BB, 21 K

Soph. 278 AB, 116 H, 21 2b, 4 3b, 7 HR, .597 SLG, 53 BB, 27 K

Jr. 266 AB, 111 H, 18 2b, 4 3b, 22 HR, .763 SLG, 50 BB, 34 K

One of those numbers is not like the others.

Anonymous's picture
Submitted by Anonymous on

when he got to Seattle. He had two bad starts. His last four outings, he was lights out with 30 strikeouts to 10 walks. Allowed 4 runs in 26 innings and threw a ton of groundballs.

jemanji's picture
Submitted by jemanji on

What are you amigos talking about?

Oh, when he got to High Desert?  Thought I'd missed more late-September baseball than I thought :- )

Ya, nothing discouraging about Robles' gig in the Cali league.  Nothing signal about it, either.  Best thing about Robles is that G-Money likes him.

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