Q.  You have to dock Jose Lopez a bit on his OPS+, because it's based on SLG not OBP, right?

A.  Right.   But.

... for those who haven't caught this point before, OPS and OPS+ do treat OBP and SLG as though they were of equal value.

OBP is in fact more valuable, yet you'll notice that a guy with a 300/380/420 line is considered equal to a guy with a 300/340/460 line.   The .380 OBP will get you more runs, other things being equal.

So for guys who don't walk, and/or have low AVG's, you do need to subtract, say, 5% from OPS+ to get the right "eyeball" estimate of offense (in terms of RC/27).

Sabermetricians remind us that for this or that player, you should subtract 5 or even 10 points of OPS+ for a player who skews far away from OBP.

Very true, though in practical terms the difference isn't as great as it's sometimes represented to be.

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Q.  Is there a better way to "adjust" OPS+ for low-OBP guys, than "subtract 5 points"?

A.  Sure.  RC/27 will give you a feel for how the 300/380/420 and the 300/340/460 guys compare -- theoretically.

Jose's RC/27 for 2008-09 is around 4.5, meaning that nine Joses would score 4.5 runs a game.   The AL average is around 4.8.   So Jose's OPS+ would run around 94 by that measure, rather than the 99 it's been.

See?  Five points.  And Jose's RC/27 is not park-adjusted.

A (real) hitter with a 100 OPS+ will have a RC/27 very similar to the league average runs scored, whether or not he has a high OBP.

So it's worth considering, but of course it's not like it renders OPS+ unusable.

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Q.  You said we should dock Jose, "But"?

A.  OTOH, anybody who wasn't a "purist sabermetrician" would put the thumb right back on the scale for Jose Lopez, the one that RC/27 took off, because of Jose's ability to hit tough pitching.

True he doesn't BB into that 105 OPS+, but it's also true that he gives a "hard" AB when the runs are leveraged.

Show me two 105 OPS+ players, one a "soft" player who does draw some walks, and one "hard" player who doesn't walk, but who does get you 100 RBI, and I'll take the hard player.

This is a battleground on which the "purist sabermetrician" and the "blended saber/scout" -- like Capt Jack is a blended saber/scout -- would differ most sharply.   "Purist sabermetricians" would be unlikely to buy into the idea that certain hitters will challenge tough pitchers, and others will cake out.

D-O-V blends 'em on this one.

And therefore I wouldn't overemphasize the OPS+ penalty on Lopez.  He's not getting the walkoff RBI's by no blinkin' accident.   He's a 90-100 RBI man in a good lineup.

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Q.  What's the other asterisk?

A.  This (valid) rule that says, OPS+ is a little high for players who don't walk ... IMHO there is another asterisk, that being for players who hit home runs.

For those just joining us, James and Dr. D wrote a little study for the old STATS Baseball Scoreboard that compared 20 sets of historical team-pairs:

20 Teams A:  OPS 100*, more home runs & BB's, fewer 1B's and 2B's

20 Teams B:  OPS 100*, fewer HR's & BB's

The teams that hit more homers, for the same OPS, scored quite a few more runs.

Homers change the scoreboard.  RC/27 is theoretical.

...................

You take a Vlad Guerrero type, and say, well, his OPS+ is a bit high?  Not really.  Vlad changes (changed) the scoreboard probably *more* than his OPS+ suggests (suggested).

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Q.  Is OPS+ close enough for government work?

A.  James invented Win Shares so that he could SCAN rosters, across years, and very quickly see at-a-glance some very large comparisons.

OPS+ does that for me.   Did pennant winners tend to have 60 OPS+ hitters in their lineup, or didn't they?

Did Cinderella teams tend to shore up 60 OPS+ to 90 OPS+ in the next year, or didn't they?

Is Jose Lopez getting better, year-to-year, or isn't he?  By how much?  OPS+, with its 100 scale, is simply ideal for comparing a player to himself, very quickly, like in three seconds, and then on to the next card.

OPS+ is good for moving large mounds of dirt, and good for moving through piles of information very quickly.   Personally, I try to use OPS+ to gain a sense of proportion, when comparing lots of things in a short time.

But if you want to insist that RC/27, or some derivative stat that's 2% more accurate than RC/27, is the one you want to use, that's cool.   All statistics, ERA, W/L, RBI, everything, all stats have information that can be helpful when used for the right purpose.

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Q.  The bottom line on Jose?

A.  He's an average-solid hitter who can get you the big RBI.  Right now he'd be a lot more valuable as part of a supporting cast.

Cheers,

Dr D