FLIP:  Bedard's shoulder still hurts, the MRI's showed "some fraying," and it's in question whether Bedard will pitch again in 2009.

CHOP:  "Some fraying" is typically what they say when there is normal wear and tear -- as there is for every pitcher -- and there's nothing serious.  But it's also what they say, sometimes, before labrum surgery.

Now, of course, if the labrum or rotator cuff or whatever is the next thing we hear, then that's that.

But assuming that it isn't determined to be serious, or even if it requires the kind of surgery that Bedard had last year (before returning in 2009 as one of the best pitchers in the game) ... then there's a silver lining.

..................

If you: 

(1) Throw out the unpleasant Seattle baseball politics for one second ... and

(2) Accept the local premise that the Mariners shouldn't even be attempting to win in 2009 any more, if it costs them one dime's worth of efficiency for any future season, and

(3) Remember for a second that Erik Bedard, when on the mound, is one of baseball's best pitchers, then

(4) This injury could position the Mariners to deploy an inexpensive Erik Bedard for "surprise" pennant runs in 2010 and/or 2011.

................

If Erik Bedard had a 2006-07 season, or even if he finished September strong, then he could be looking at a mammoth free agent contract this winter.

As it is, if he accepts surgery AS CAPT JACK IS COINCIDENTALLY URGING HIM TO DO :innocent who-me blink: then Bedard has extremely limited bargaining power this winter.  He is going to have to take a short-term deal for very disappointing money.

All the Mariners would have to do, is treat him "surprisingly generously", giving him more than other teams do ... and they're in position to hand-shake him for a hometown discount.  

Say, 2010 at decent money, with a club option perhaps, so that he can re-establish his value and score his big FA contract in a year or two.

.

=== Worthless?  No:  Discounted ===

Juan Guzman, Jose Rijo, Escobar, Carpenter, Burnett and many other aces went through their careers hampered by injuries -- but it did not cause ML teams to lose interest in them.  What it caused them to do, was hedge their bets on these aces, and try to position themselves for bargain exploitation of those aces' talents.

Other cities' fans do not judge the Kelvim Escobars, A.J. Burnetts and Chris Carpenters of the game as harshly as Seattle has judged Erik Bedard.  "Ferrari" aces are what they are.  They're not worthless:  they're a hassle.

................

D-O-V's stock analysts downgrade Bedard after this latest injury.  He falls into the Escobar - Saberhagen - Burnett group of high-maintenance aces.  You give him a physical and IF he passes it, he makes 2nd-tier money.  And fewer years.

.

=== Cost-Benefit per the Roto Champs ===

It's the same thing in rotisserie.  What does a roto champ do about a Ben Sheets, if he is reportedly feeling good going into 2010?

Do the champ say, "Ah, who wants to mess with him!" and pass on Sheets in the 16th round?   Of course not.  All the good players are watching Sheets intently as he slides on draft day ... playing finger-trigger games in a Dutch Auction, hoping to buy Sheets at #3 starter money.

....................

Don't let anybody tell you that the Escobars, Carpenters, Burnetts and Bedards of the game are worthless.  That might be our local bias, but it is not the industry consensus, and it's not how good fantasy baseball players ROI them.

........................

If Bedard has his surgery done, and reports are good going into 2010?

Roto owners will be hoping to snag him at the $15 level, or maybe 6th round of an AL-only draft -- which would be equivalent to an ML contract of (say) $8-10M per season.

.........................

The Mariners are well positioned to take a hedged bet on a 2010 Bedard -- which would offer huge upside in the best-case scenario. 

Hm.  I wonder if that isn't why Jack Zduriencik isn't encouraging Bedard not to pitch any more in 2009?

Cheers,

Dr D