.=== Most-Comparable Player Dept. ===
As you wrap your mind around the idea of Adam Dunn in Seattle, think David Ortiz (and Manny, hitting #3 and #4). Ortiz becomes the point of reference for Dunn.
Ortiz' lifetime OPS+ is 134; in 2004, the year the Red Sox broke the curse, his OPS+ was 145 (slightly lower than Dunn's current 149).
Dunn is 29 this year and showing a nice trend in his K/BB. Roids aren't an issue, since the guy is roughly the size of Mighty Joe to start with.
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Is it fair to project Adam Dunn, over the next 3 years, to provide offense roughly comparable to that of Ortiz in his prime? Well, I think the question is whether Dunn will provide offense that is (a) one notch down from Ortiz', or (b) every bit as good as Ortiz'.
And Ortiz won the MVP in 2004. As Edgar could have in 1995.
Probably (a). Either way, I'm okay. A DH doesn't have to be EVERY inch as good as David Ortiz to drive an offensive machine.
But I still pencil Dunn to continue to draw 100 walks and hit 40 homers. Tell me you don't? Any projection OTHER THAN 100 walks and 40 homers would be feebleminded.
;- )
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=== WAR / $ Dept. ===
Heyman reasons that Dunn's $12M salary "should scare everybody off," despite the fact that he is owed only $12M total on the rest of his contract.
This is a little like saying, after the Sox won the series in 2004, that people should have been scared to give David Ortiz $9-10M for one season. That would make absolutely as much sense.
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It is interesting to debate the value of a DH. You get into controversial positional adjustments, you get into replacement level that is skewed by a couple of great DH's, you get into lots of things...
What is "replacement level" for a MARINER DH? By how much would Dunn improve the MARINERS' performance at DH? ... that's how we judged Jack Wilson, right?
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After all the theoretical jockeying, let's ask this question: What did the Boston Red Sox figure that David Ortiz was worth? The Red Sox are probably the smartest, and the best, organization in baseball. Certainly they are as sabermetric as any of the 30 teams in the game right now.
The Red Sox, taking everything into consideration, gave David Ortiz $13M x 4 years to DH for them. This covered his age 31-34 seasons, with a club option for his age-35 season. That 4/$52M was in 2006 dollars.
How this did or didn't, or will or won't, work out is an interesting debate. But it doesn't change the reality of what the Red Sox concluded about the value of a DH who hits #3 for you.
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=== Farfetched? Not ===
Last winter, Capt Jack was reportedly one of the last few men in the dance for Adam Dunn.
This year, with a huge problem offense, Dunn hitting better than ever, and DH one of the issues, you would think that the waiver claim would be automatic.
I wonder what the chances are of a post-July 31 deal. Certainly nobody other than the Angels and Rangers would try to mess up a Dunn-to-Seattle scenario; to everybody else, that keeps Dunn from being a pain in their own sides.
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If not now, then this winter.
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Why trade Felix for Adrian Gonzalez? Branyan's going to 1B/DH with either one. And that's fine. The Red Sox built their mini-dynasty on a DH and a masher at LF/1B.
Cheers,
Dr D
...and his name is Ken Griffey.
We're already talking about booting Sweeney to keep Hannahan on the roster when Beltre comes back tomorrow...if we boot Griffey too, I think the guys in the clubhouse might get a bit upset.
And Capt Jack and Wok have a nice touch for working those problemos. :- )
Luke French himself is stepping on toes. The Jarrod Washburn trade was dicey in the clubhouse.
The Mariners have done a wonderful job of -- politely -- letting everybody know that they will do what is best for the team. It's a strength of theirs now. Did you ever think you'd hear yourself say that...
Dunn is a LOT more valuable as a DH than playing in the field. He belongs on an AL squad. KGJ is about replacement level for DH. Dunn would be roughly worth 3.5-4 WAR above him as a DH full season if his '09 production translates directly to the AL. The performance of guys like Holliday and Burrell in the AL make me skeptical of 40+ HRs and a 950 OPS, but I still think Dunn would mash in Brayan-esque fashion (35 HRs, high 800s OPS). He gives us that lefty masher we so desperately need.
I still don't think Dunn would clear waivers, and the last word from the Nationals was that they weren't interested in trading him. If he does though, the Ms would have to be nuts to pass on him right? Hes only signed through '10, he fills a HUGE hole, and then you collect your draft picks. Didn't Z do the exact same thing with the SS position?
On almost all points. Especially the DH point. Ortiz, Edgar, Dunn, etc., subtract from their own values if they're at 1B or LF for an NL team.
Remember, Holliday and Burrell are not TTO players, though. Russell Branyan has zero problems with the AL nor with Safeco.
A guy won't swing at a ball, he hits it 425 when he hits it, how much of an AL/NL issue is that? :- )
I don't think Dunn would suffer like Holliday or Burrell either, just maybe a loss of 5 HRs or so over the year thanks to better pitching depth in the AL (Dunn is a career 1.055 OPS hitter vs finesse pitcher in his career). I'd bet on 35 HRs and an 880 OPS or so in Safeco in '10.
Jack Wilson is the type of NL hitter that I'd expect ZERO decline from:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=wilsoja02&year=Ca...
He hits all kind of pitchers equally. Hard throwers and fineese throwers, it doesn't matter much at all.
I don't think Dunn will clear waivers, either, but with waivers a lot goes on behind the scenes. I'm thinking mostly of this winter.
grrreat data.
Yeah, that's what he looks like to me. A guy who can slap the ball around against whoever's on the mound.
In a way he's got a little Japanese to his game, don'cha think? :- )
A little 'too' much Japanese in his offensive game. :-)
Jack Wilson reminds me of a LOT of an older version of Munenori Kawasaki. He doesn't have Kawasaki's speed (maybe less ability to hit for average/make contact), but he has a tad more pop, so they're probably about the same. Actually, now that you mention it, Kawasaki might be a guy the Ms would want to look for as a backup SS/2B with upside. Hes having a horrible season offensively this year, but he practically idolizes Ichiro and his service time will be up soon. I think his game would translate well to MLB as long as you make sure you get him to hit the weights in the offseason.
NPB is becoming even more of an extreme pitchers league. There are just a TON of great young starters right now, but the hitting talent is kind of fizzling off a bit.
There are some tremendous all-around players that can hit, field, and run like Norichika Aoki and Nakajima, but the superstar Ichiro type players and prime-H.Matsui/Matsunaka/Ogaswara type stud hitters haven't arrived yet.
Any word on some NPB hitting specs Ice? Naka-san?
But the WBC is as good an indicator as ever. Lots of 2-tool, 3-tool types that match up on the right roster, but no interesting 4/5-tool types.
Aoki is about the best you can get, and he's a poor man's Ichiro in the Japanese NL. The biggest difference is that Aoki has a notable curve on his eye ratios, but Ichiro had his from the top. But he's having a down year.
Nishioka, along with Kawasaki & Aoki, is having a career DOWN year.
Nakajima reminds me way too much of Kaz Matsui down to the uniform color, but with LESS speed numbers and glove work. That's probably just me being pessimistic, but Nakajima I don't consider significant.
There are very few new faces on the individual stats leader boards. The board is full of old faces hitting like they always do or old faces having hitting renaissances. And no new interesting faces either, other than Yomiuri hype jobs (Sakamoto doesn't excite me). Nakata was supposed to be the biggest hitter since Godzilla, but he hasn't figured out how to use a wood bat.
But pitching just keeps coming. HALF of the teams have ERAs under 3.75! No teams are over 4.75. The highest qualified starter has a 4.28 ERA. With Waseda's Yuki Saito heading up the next class, it's looking like pitching is where it's at.
NPB Deadball Era, here we come.
Any interesting highschool prospects?
I'm kind of bummed that there aren't a ton of young stud position players anymore.. The elite guys are aging, and a lot of them probably won't be in the next WBC.