Q. Why do you say that 83 mph vs 86 mph doesn't mean much? Sounds like a cop-out.
A. 'Cop-out' has the connotation of 'intending to avoid responsibility.' :- )
True, D-O-V does discourage the theme that runs "Joe has a fastball 86-87, but that's better than Jamie or John, who averaged 83 mph."
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Q. 96 vs 92 mph makes a difference, though, right.
A. Sure. 400 lbs on the bench vs 350 makes a difference, too. But 20 lbs vs 17 lbs doesn't. As you get tougher and tougher, the resources needed to meet the challenge go up exponentially.
But it doesn't work the other way. There comes a point when it's just child's play to lift the bar, or to do whatever, and taking off more weight doesn't affect anything materially.
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Think of boxing. Mo has super fast hands; Sugar has amazingly fast hands. You can deal with both of those guys, but every added tick of speed makes the tangle of strategy that much tougher.
To a professional fighter, I have hands so slow that he can duck them at will (I'm an Average Joe who doesn't box); Matty, let's just say ;- ) has hands even slower than mine. Neither one of us is ever going to throw their right cross past a pro fighter's gloves.
There is no point talking about my punch taking 1.2 seconds vs Matty's 1.4, if 0.7 is the minimum needed to make a pro fighter respect a punch.
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Once a fastball takes forever to get to the plate -- 87 mph and down -- the question is whether you at least make the hitter move his CG to get the barrel of the bat on the ball.
If he does have to lean out or pull back, or dip the back knee or straighten up, to get the barrel of the bat to the ball, then sure, the hitter will have a tough time driving the pitch. ... He cannot load up on 9 sectors of the zone at once.
Moyer had as good a command as anybody who's ever pitched. That 85 mph was right on the black, either black, and an 85 FB on the black is a plus pitch.
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There comes a point where we non-ballplayers are sitting behind our monitors, speculating about what it's like to play the game, sort of like archaeologists trying to re-create some aspect of primitive life we have discovered. :- )
Ask any ballplayer and he'll tell you that 78, 81, 84 mph, it's all just BP.
Read up from any ML hitter who has ever broached the subject, such as Ted Williams in My Turn At Bat. Ted would joke about some guy with a minus FB and Teddy was looking for a slider and here came a fastball waist high. Ted would raise ane eybrow, "Oh, here's a nice fastball," and crank it. "I had that much time," he used to write.
That point of "useless velocity" is about 86-87 mph or so. 65 mph, 70 mph, 75 mph, it's not significant. Once the batter can sit curve, and still have all day to adjust fastball, then location is the pitcher's ONLY defense.
High school kids can hit 86 fastballs, and Hank Blalock is not a high school caliber player.
It's not my speculation. Ask any hitter.
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It sez here that Luke French had better paint with that 86-87 fastball, and paint every bloomin' time.
We'll see. :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
...what Moyer has lost recently is not fastball velo...he has lost more of that but it does not matter...what he's lost is feather touch. He gets tired easily now because his body simply cannot handle the rigors of a major league season The result is a loss of command of his changeup and his fastball...he makes too many mistakes now and he pays almost every time.
And BTW, let's be careful too about getting *too* confident tossing around those Fangraphs velo averages. :- )
Two different pitchers might have 87.6 averages, but one of the guys might be able to hit 90-91 when he wants (perhaps Jarrod Washburn). He keeps hitters more honest.
Another guy really does have a hard time getting over 88, and hitters sit "in between."
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Also, those averages go up and down. Pitchers can and do gain/lose velo month-to-month, like RRS.
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Also, the P/X data often doesn't call the pitches correctly. A hard slider might be called a FB.
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87.6 might mean one guy doesn't have a respectable fastball, but another guy does, and likes to take a little off, vary his pitch speeds.
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If we're going to use FBv constantly, let's pair it with "top velocity" or something. FBv can be pretty misleading if not kept in context.
It may matter 'less' at the lower end than at the top end (although I'm not entirely sold), but to insist that it doesn't matter at all is beyond silly.
Jamie Moyer average fastball '02-'03: 82.8
Jamei Moyer average fastball '04-'06: 81.7
Jamie Moyer average fastball '-07-'09: 81.2
The loss in fastball velocity from '03 to '04 marked the end of Jamie Moyer as TOR starter in the AL. But velocity doesn't matter in that range right?
Again, not sold. For every time a guy an 88mph guy hits 92mph, hes also hitting 86mph. French hits 91 on occasion (check the f/x).
One thing I do think gets questionable is the 4-seam vs 2-seam. Fangraphs sometimes doesn't do a good job of differentiating those pitches (and it leads to inaccurate reading).
RRS in April was throwing lines like:
85 FB
86 FB
83 FB
76 CV
84 FB
There was no high-end pitch...the average really did represent the sample.
Now he does this:
88 FB (painted)
92 FB (overtrown a bit high)
87 FB (painted)
76 CV (bounced)
82 CH (just outside)
90 FB (swinging strike)
He can reach back and find the gas you need to keep hitters off the slow stuff AND the hard stuff.
See other posts Taro...not going to repeat myself again.
I don't see your point.
Moyer hit a wall TWICE with velocity. Once from '99-2000. Then he figured out how to pitch around it the following year.
The second time he hit a wall in '03-04, and never recovered.
Moyer's case seems to suggest that velocity IS important even at the extreme low ends.
I'm sorry but I'm not buying this 83mph is the same thing as 87mph junk.
I'm firmly convinced that Moyer's loss of game wasn't associated with a drop from 83 to 82.
I don't remember what the point was, but Moyer used to throw 87-88 in the 1996-2001 years, and then it did drop to 82-83 and he was on borrowed time from that point. I'm not making that up for the occasion; I'd tell anybody that over the last five years. He hit a point where he suddenly went from 87, painted, to 82-83, less painted.
IMHO, what you are seeing as his results worsen, is his increased mistake rate. When your muscles are weaker, you can't feather the ball.
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But back to basics here: you think that French's FB is semi-respectable, great. I'll watch for that to see if maybe you have something there. :- )
:grouphug:
First...look at the walk rate.
his peak, he was a 1.6 to 1.8 BB/9 pitcher. Starting in 2004 (and in 2000 when he was also injured and ineffective for part of the season, thereby costing him touch on his pitches), he started walking 2.5 to 2.8 per game.
To go with that, his flyball rate has increased (he was a flyball pitcher for most of his career, but it's getting worse, hinting at his loss of ability to keep the ball down), which along with an increased HR/Fly has resulted in a massive uptick in HR rate.
I'm not an athlete, but I am inclined to believe an old guy when he bemoans that he "justs can't get the shot there" anymore as he ages trying to play racquetball. Same thing applies to Moyer's pitches.
Maybe, but thats debatable. His Strike% was identical from '04-06 in Seattle compared to '03. His HR/FB was high in '04, but also very low in '05 and average in '06.
The 1mph loss in velocity definetly didn't help.
From '03 to '04 he losses 1mph in velocity and goes from TOR to BOR. Perhaps his command also suffered though we can't tell from strike% and can't tell from HR/FB (either than '04).
...you could read his career and see:
"guy who could jam hitters and keep it on the ground when his velo was respectable - loses velo but his walk rate doesn't improve to compensate for one year...plus he's injured part of that time...then he takes a giant step forward in command and has his late peak...then he stops being able to locate as well as his body ages"
I think you're seeing what you want to see here...you're fixated on velocity and not seeing that it could be two different processes at work.
Hr/FB% didn't increase much, although his BB rate did. This could be due to nibbling more, as much as it could be due to command. His Strike% was the same, so he may have been behind the count more.
Can we at least admit that the 1mph loss in velocity was probably a HUGE factor?
...he had a good year hanging on by a thread and making few mistakes...and his park certainly helped him as well. But he was still a guy who had ZERO margin for error. From 2004 onward, he's had ZERO margin for error...he still has stretches where he makes no mistakes, but they're getting shorter and shorter. As Sandy loves to point out...as you get old, the thing that goes first is consistency.
It could be due to other things as well, and probably is.
I find it funny though that when Moyer loses 1mph on his already medicore fastball, THAT is the exact time he goes from a TOR starter to a BOR starter.
You're trying to tell thats irrelevant. I think that position is questionable.
Sorry...I will say that any loss in velocity is not likely to HELP...but I've been watching Moyer pitch for many many years, including this year as I follow the Phillies. The thing that kills him now are the mistakes...it's not like batters could tee off on the fastball at 82 but if he cranks it alllll the way up to 84, they're utterly defenseless against it.
C'mon taro...
Yes, but the question is WHY do you lose that consistency?
WHY does RJ go from all-time great to #2-3 starter in recent years?
WHY does KGJ go from 45 HRs to 20?
RJ lost consistency because he started having a lot of back problems...injury is a common vector. Same thing happened to Batista. This has robbed him off the drive in his back leg so he doesn't get the snap on his slider (it's more like a hard slurve now) and he doesn't throw 97...he throws 91 (and that IS a huge difference).
KGJ lost power because his knees went to hell. That tends to be where a lot power comes from afterall.
But some guys lose consistency just from fatigue...not from obvious injuries. Lots of pitchers especially just start becoming increasingly wild and giving up more mistakes and getting kncoked around and never get it going again.
He probably never 'sat' at 88mph (more like touched), but he lost velocity TWICE. Once in '99 to '00 and another in '03 to '04.
Did he, or didn't he struggle to adjust BOTH times? Has he ever really recovered since '04?
Ya I'd agree its a combination of factors, all physical... Kind of running this topic off of subject htough.
I think Moyer is a case FOR the importance of velocity even in those ranges when you look at his career patterns. Is it a coincidence that he struggled MIGHTILY BOTH times he lost velocity, and never recovered the second time?
83mph vs 87mph is still significant.
If the argument were that theres not much difference between say 80mph vs 76mph, than I'd agree. Somewhere around 81-82mph average seems to be the cut-off point. If Moyer can't be all that effective at that speed, no one can.
Koji Uehara averaged 87mph this year in the rotation and his peripherals are fantastic. You might say he gets by with great command and you'd be right, although he also has a tremendous fork/split. I really doubt he'd be anywhere NEAR as effective at 83mph.
Andy Sonnanstine was effective in '07 and particularly good in '08 with an 87mph fastball. Hes bombed in '09 with the decline in breaking stuff, but that just outlines how thin the line is for soft-tossers. Good command ya, but can you envision him having success with an 83mph fastball?
Marc Rzpecynski averages 88mph and has terrible command. Yet hes been successful thanks to fastball movement, offspeed stuff and deception. Great K/9, GBs, Ks.
If French finds a 75 mph change-up instead of one over 80 mph, you're talking something. It's all speed differential. Your change should be 9-13 mph (11 is the sweet spot) less than your FB to screw up timing. If it's 7 mph difference you're gonna get hit, because guys aren't swinging through it, they're fouling it off.
French has had this FB his entire minor league career, and has gotten clobbered hits-wise throwing it his entire career. Without his slider, he's a dead duck.
I agree with Taro that a few mph difference does make a huge difference. But it's between pitches, not overall speed, that makes the difference. You can get by with a minus fastball as long as your changeup is good, and right now French's change is about as different from his FB as a 2-seamer is from a 4-seamer. That's not as much differential as you want - AT ALL.
He made his recent plateau jump based on the awesomeness of his slider. I think he can hang around as a #5 while he gets his changeup to be functionally different enough from his FB to make BOTH a decent weapon. That would be another plateau jump. In that sense I'm definitely a believer in Luke's ability to help us out.
But I'm with Doc on what it means to have a minus FB: it means you had better have plus location or plus change-speed -preferrably both - and from what I've seen French has neither to any significant degree. He weapon is an eye-height changer that is tough to hit but in no way resembles his FB. As long as he can drop that in for strikes he can keep fighting in the rotation. But at 5 stops he's been over 10 hits/9 in the minors. The exceptions? A few innings in rookie ball, the pitcher-friendly Midwest League...and his last stop in AAA when he threw the slider like a madman.
He cuts back on the slider in the bigs, and is above 10 hits per 9 again. He's got to throw the slider while he tries to develop that consistent FB feel or drop a few mph off his CH. Either is doable - he's still a young pitcher, and as Moyer proved you can jump plateaus even late in your career as a hurler.
But right now French's fastball is very hittable. His change resembles a slow, hanging fastball instead of a true off-speed weapon. Without control (and use) of the slider, he's dead. But he DOES have that slider weapon, and more FB control or a better change can help get him through days when he's lost the touch on his slider.
An extra mph or two on his FB over those with lesser FBs doesn't mean a ton, IMO, except as it helps create differential from his changeup. The closer he can get to the changeup-differential sweet-spot of 9+ mph the better back-ender he'll be. And then we won't have to guess on what might happen with a control freak with a few less mph or whether it's more important to have MPH or control when you have a minus FB, because the template for a minus FB of ANY speed is to be able to control your FB( ie, do NOT leave it out over the plate) and to change speeds effectively.
Having the slider weapon would then let French be better than a #5. But it's not whether his fastball is 87 or 83 that will determine that, it's whether he can keep it off the fat part of the plate and make players swing and miss rather than swing and foul-it-off.
~G
So the 2005 season in which he allowed fewer HRs again and posted an ERA in the 3s...and the 2008 season in Philly where he again posted an ERA in the 3s for much of the year...those were, what? Imaginary? Taro...it's blatantly obvious from the statistical record that Moyer needs CONSISTENCY to survive and that the CONSISTENCY is failing him at increasing regularity now.
G...you know I *have* to say this given my sabermetric background...but minor league AVERAGE hit rates steadily increase from the major league baseline the further down the org ladder you go. 10 H/9 is bad in the majors...it's normal in AA and it's actually pretty good in low-A for a guy with 7 K/9. Fielding gets steadily worse at those levels.
I agree with all of that, although I think 'too' much difference in the fastball/changeup can also be harmeful. A 7-10mph difference is ideal. Less than that and hitters can adjust mid-swing, more than that and hitters can sit in between.
Jamie Moyer actually averages right around 7mph between his fastball/chageup. Cliff Lee and Mark Buerhle are around there, Ricky Romero around 7.5.
James Shileds averages 8 mph between the fastball/changeup. Jair Jurrjens averages 8 mph.
Tim Lincecum averages about 9.5 mph between the fastball/changeup. Johan Santana averages 9 mph. Hamels a little under 10mph.
Somewhere around 7-10mph and you're good. At first glance it almost seem that the harder you throw your fastball, the bigger mph difference you can afford between the changeup (although I don't know if theres anything to that).
Luke French is somewhere around that breaking point and could probably afford to throw his change another 1-2mph slower.. I don't know if that the main issue though. Maybe he just needs a better feel for it..much of an effective change is in sellling the delivery. Or maybe the pitching staff switches his grip or something, like he did late last year with the slider.
Either way, I'd agree that the effectiveness of the changeup is going to decide French's fate in the rotation.
Nah, he was never the same since the '04 season. '08 was just one of those blips in the radar (high HR/FB and LOB%).
Gee...last year, people were all over me for proclaiming that Moyer hadn't actually been effective since 2004, but now that you need to make your case around 2004, it's OK to say he was not actually a good pitcher in 2008? How convenient. For you.
I agree that Moyer was not fundamentally different in 2008...but that does not mean the results didn't improve...they did...and they improved because he avoided mistakes more reguarly in high leverage moments. I wouldn't project anything positive based on 2008...but the season definitely paints a picture of a pitcher who lives and dies by consistency.
I've never been part of the group that said Moyer was effective in '08. Hes regressed since '04.
Even if Moyer was lucky in 2008, he was able to keep runs off the board just as well then as in 1995 when he threw 5 mph harder. If 1 mph explains his collapse, why wasn't he more effective when he was younger? You are oversimplifying Moyer. Badly. 1 mph didn't break him...location did
Moyer didn't emerge as a TOR starter until later in his career. And ya, that was due to rediculously good pitchability and command. He was an extreme student of the game, going as far as keeping a book on every hitter and every pitch during his starts. Later in his career he also benefitted from a very large strike-zone.
Velocity isn't what made Moyer the pitcher he was, but it did break him IMO. Every mph was crucial as we can see in his decline phase.
Do you hear yourself? Velocity isn't what made Moyer...but every mph mattered?? That makes zero sense whatsoever Taro. That roaring sound is the logic train whipping by you...try not to get hit wby it...it might hurt.
I see a spectacularly consistent pitcher who became human and lost his consistency as he aged. And mph had little to nothing to do with it, though the loss in velocity probably did telegraph the breaking down of his body.
What I meant is that Moyer didn't succeed 'because' of his velocity, but every mph of his velocity (even at the lower end) clearly did matter.
Therefore I find it highly questionable when anyone tries to tell me that the difference between 87mph and 83mph is irrelevant. I've given examples of guys that have succeeded recently at 87mph. This list of guys that have succeded recently at 83mph is ONE: Jamie Moyer. And when his velocity went below 82mph he was done as a TOR starter.
IF French can get a low-mid 70's change (LOL) with REAL GOOD ARM ACTION then sure, his 86 could look 95, as they'll tell you.
I wouldn't trot out to the chainlink fence outside the Safeco 'pen to wait for it, homies. If Roy Corcoran could throw a Trevor Hoffman change he could get outs, too. ;- )
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But point is well taken, everything we said above comes with an asterisk. If you can throw a Campillo-class changeup then your velo is negotiable.
Just answer me this, Taro.
What made Moyer great? Great command. What has he lost lately? COMMAND. Check the walk rates and the K/BB and the HRs...when he hadn't yet emerged as a TOR...why was that? Because he didn't have enough command. When he lost a tick at the end...why was that? Because he no longer had that command.
Actually the strike% is identical from '03 and '04 to present.
He nibbled more and was less likely to give into the hitters with a 3 ball count. Why is that do you think?
Anyhow, I grow tired of this debate. Give me an example of ONE pitcher in history of baseball that went from 87mph to 83mph and was EXACTLY as effective and I'll start considering yours/Doc's controversial position.
You cannot use strike percentage dogmatically to equate to command. King Felix always had very high strike percentages...he developed command and the very next day, his strike percentage DROPPED!!...it didn't go up. Having command is not the same as throwing strikes. Moyer still heaves the ball over the plate...or tries to...but instead of hitting a teacup 99 times out of 100, he's hitting a target the size of a baskeball hoop about 50% of the time. He's missing up in the zone more (higher FB%), he's walking guys when he can no longer get the corner in bad counts, and he's getting hit more often from his mistakes. That's all command...it's not just nibbling. Here's a clue...he ALWAYS NIBBLED.
I don't neccesarilly disagree with you on the command front, I'm just not convinced yet.
I'm just saying what we KNOW is that the velocity loss coincided with Moyer losing his TOR status in '04. The command is debatable. His BB% did go up, but did it go up because of nibbling with a lesser fastball, or did it go up because of a loss in command?
Personally I think Moyer experienced a Guardado moment in '04. He still had good command, but the declined fastball left him even 'less' margin for error (hence more BBs/HRs). If Moyer still didn't have great command TODAY theres no reason he'd still be in the big leagues with an 81mph fastball.