Seattle Sports Insider

By The Numbers, Bottom Half of the Inning

Posted by

jemanji

4/23/09

101 - Games the 2009 Seattle Mariners would win at their present pace

87 - How many games would Dr. D guess the M's will actually win (aided by hot start and Wakamatsu)

.241/.293/.352 - Offensive production producing these 101 pro-rated victories

.248/.309/.331 - Average offense in NL in the 1915 season, deadball era (27 homers per team per year)

BURKE - Who did the M's have playing 1B on Thursday afternoon

YES - Could the M's use an Adam Dunn (.476 OBP, .609 SLG right now)

NO - Does that mean the M's cannot win the World Series in 2009

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71 - What is the M's team OPS+ right now

94 - What is the approximate weighted average of the below numbers

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116 - What is Ichiro's career OPS+

076 - What is Chavez' career OPS+

101 - What was Junior's OPS+ last year (138 lifetime)

106 - What is Beltre's career OPS+

110 - What is Branyan's career OPS+

085 - What is Lopez' career OPS+ (104 last season)

091 - What is Johjima's career OPS+

087 - What is Frenchy's career OPS+

085 - What is Gutierrez' career OPS+

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Without any doubt - Will the M's offense get better, when the hitters return to career norms

DEFINITELY - Is the above a weak lineup by pennant-race standards

0 - Who is the M's MOTO-worthy bat

Vlad, Abreu - Who are the Angels' MOTO bats

Giambi, Holliday, Cust - Who are the A's MOTO bats (all over 128 OPS+ last year)

Hamilton, Kinsler - Who are the Rangers' hitting stars (both over 130 OPS+ last year)

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The Mariners have had an unsustainably bad offense. It's just a couple of weeks in cold weather; the bats will heat up. You're not going to see ANY team run an OPS+ in the 70's; the very worst OPS+ last year was 88, by Oakland. As a general rule, even an expansion AL offense would clock in at 85. So, at 73, the M's are obviously way below the level they'll finish at.

But this ballclub does not have a single MOTO-worthy bat, and that's unusual. To be fair, once in a while a team bucks the trend, and wins with a lineup full of no-names, like the 2005 White Sox. But for every LCS finalist with no stars in its lineup, there are a bunch of teams who do have stars in their lineups :- )

The M's have a handful of 100-110 bats and a handful of light hitters -- and that's what the 1980's Mariners had.

The offense will get improve by itself, but after it does, the question is whether it will have #3 and #4 hitters to balance out the light hitters in the lineup...

For now, I'd say they need to realize that they're not going to be able to afford to select glove-first players over bat-first players within their own current rosters and lineups. For example, a Wlad-Chavez/FGut-Ichiro outfield could be used in two games in Anaheim.

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10-6 - What is the M's current record

7.5 - 8.5 - What would M's record be per "component offensive and defensive events" (BP's W2/L2)

7-9 - What would M's record be if you adjusted for "component events" and for early strength of opposition (BP's W3/L3)

NO - Should M's wait for actual 6-game losing streak to occur, before realizing they need to improve

YES - Are M's capable of winning the 2009 pennant

Felix, Bedard - What are the reasons the M's are capable of advancing to the 2009 World Series

FLAWED - What is Dr. D's assessment of the other 3 AL West teams

3.5 - What is the M's lead in the division

1 - How many ML-caliber starting pitchers will the M's face this weekend in Anaheim

Rock on,

Dr D

Comments

Take Vlad out of the Angels

Take Vlad out of the Angels line-up...he's out for at least two-three months and it could be much longer.
But yes...they need more offense. Thing is...I don't see how we're going to come up with MOTO bats...we don't really have any real way of finding that kind of production. I would argue, however, that some very good world-champion caliber teams have had 1 or 2 good hitters and a lot of bad ones...it's just that the Mariners are getting their offense from 7 averages hitters instead of 1 or 2 MOTO bats and a few black holes in there. It's a formula that hasn't been tried that often...so it's an experiment to be sure.

Now we're just noodling, LOL

Now we're just noodling, LOL but IMHO, with an Edgar-level hitter in your lineup, it's tough to go 16 games with no offense at all. The big boys do have the effect of carrying you.
We're all arguing "hey, no need to panic" and that's great. But, we all spent this winter saying you only have to catch the ball, and now we're pretending that the offense isn't all that big of a problemo... :- )
73 OPS+, that is some seriously messed-up offense.

Do what? Well, what you

Do what?
Well, what you should have done was get Adam Dunn >:-] but that's moot now... so,
Emphasize bats in the lineup decisions each day, such as playing Wlad and/or Griffey and/or Sweeney over whichever of Chavez/Gutierrez is being abused at the moment.
If you're going to play guys out of position, play Griffey at 1B as opposed to playing a .199 catcher at first.
Promote and use the first Rainier who gets hot (Carp, Tui, Clement, etc).
Seek a trade for a legit hitter, and never mind the outrage when you pay fair talent to get it.
Maximize the platoon advantages, don't be afraid to pinch-hit, etc etc.

If the M's did get their offense rolling, they could build a big lead very quickly...

Part of 73 OPS+ is a result

Part of 73 OPS+ is a result of Wakamatsu's offensive strategy IMHO...he's calling on EVERYONE to bunt...Griffey, Rob Johnson, Lopez, EVERYONE. I think it may be a tad excessive though it seems to produce a lot of mistakes by other teams' infields and those mistakes score runs that don't show up in the OPS+ line the next day.

Great to see Eric Chavez

Great to see Eric Chavez starting in CF vs the rookie, with Wlad in LF ... Wlad goes yard, providing a big HR in a one-run win. The only "marginal" chance for Wlad, he catches, doing a face-plant up against the LF foul line.
Chavez CF, Wlad LF is the Dr. D lineup of choice against many RHP right now - when Chavez cools off, FGut gets out there more regularly for me...
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FGut has hit the point to where he's not only performing poorly, it is beginning to get into his head...

I still think Gutierrez is

I still think Gutierrez is one of those guys you have to let play through his slumps or he'll get untracked. I also think part of the problem is that Gutierrez has had an eye infection the last couple of weeks.