==== ForrrrrrNevvvvver You---uuu--nnng Dept. ===
Wow!
I don't ever remember seeing the MC crowd do this, vote 3-vs-20 in the direction opposite of the one D-O-V was going. This is awesome. :- )
On an emotional level, I want to see Felix-Bedard-Morrow. I think Morrow could be Jim Palmer, right now.
Dealing the SP for the OF, for me, is a function of (1) the hitter being much lower-risk and (2) Young being probably a better prospect within his context than Morrow is within his. But yeah, it's practically impossible to get your mitts on a MLB-ready TOR starter of the magnitude of Morrow.
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In the first six rounds of an AL-only draft, it doesn't matter which guys you take, PROVIDED that all 6 of those picks -- or at minimum 5 -- give you full seasons of good production.
Go back after the season, and look at the top teams, and you will find team after team whose first 6 picks stayed healthy. Go look at the bottom teams, and you'll find team after team that had major issues getting production out of their top 6 picks. Injury, or pitchers having terrible years, or Richie Sexson weirdness, or something.
Not so many roto owners, even roto champs, are aware of this little gem. ... play your first six picks very safe! The 5% more or less you get from a pick means very little compared to the fact that you had six stars stay in action, while your rival had only three of his.
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This is why a Shandler draft strategy is so consistently effective: you grab 6 hitters, or 5 hitters and 1 closer, or maybe maybe maybe 5 hitters and a "safe" ace like Felix if he slides too bad... and you use K/BB ratio to grab value pitchers later in the draft.
What does this mean for the Morrow-Young scenario?
If you had 10 Delmon Youngs run the race, starting from this point, you'd get 8 impact players and you'd get their 100 runs created on the scoreboard, year after year. If you had 10 Brandon Morrows run the race, starting from this point, a good 4 of them would fail to deliver huge production over the next six-eight years. Maybe 5 or 6 of them.
It is on that basis, and on that basis only, that Dr. D would swap an ML-ready Cy-caliber TOR prospect, for an ML-ready, MVP-caliber outfielder. It locks in production.
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But I'd be holding my nose just like you amigos. Brandon Morrow is fun to watch and fun to root for. And if he, Felix, and Bedard are in a groove, so will be the M's.
There are major reasons to hang onto Morrow. For example, his upside impact is higher than Young's. It's one thing to have Danny Tartabull in left field; it's another thing to have Curt Schilling in your rotation. The dominating ace is, inherently, more important than the #4 hitter. That's if Morrow becomes such.
Even more to the point, IN THE SHORT TERM Morrow looks much more impactful. I'm thinking age 24, maybe even 25 before Young challenges for an MVP. But Brandon Morrow might very easily be as good, right now, as he's going to be later.
Honestly, I hope they keep Morrow. But if I had the steering wheel, I'd have to be the designated driver. :- ) Hitters are not risky.
Cheers,
Dr D
When you put it into perspective it does seem like a no-brainer.
I would rather trade Clement than Morrow though if we could manage that. If Clement can't stay at catcher (there are injury AND performance concerns there) his value as a prospect goes WAY down.
Morrow has injury concerns, but we could always throw him in the bullpen (where hes proven to be impactful) if he can't stay healthy...
Hmmm...trying to find evidence that Young is a good outfielder and not finding it. ALL the defensive metrics hate him (plus/minus, PMR, UZR, and RZR). It limits his upside a bit as hes going to HAVE to mash to be a star.
I wonder if the Twins would trade us Span instead?
The more I think of it it, the more Nick Swisher makes more sense.. He wouldn't cost us Morrow or Clement, hes a better fit for Safeco, and probably a better player (for sure in the short-term).
I really hate to come in here and say this - especially when I think Doc is one of the brightest minds around - but here's my opinion of this article:
It is ten kinds of stupid to use ROTO draft logic in relation to ANYTHING about real-world baseball.
It absolutely DOES matter whether you draft hitters or pitchers first in a ROTO draft, because hitters coundt for ALL hitting categories, and pitcher's don't. In salary leagues, the "typical" recommendation is to spend 2/3 of your money on bats and 1/3 on pitchers. As a counter-example, when I first jumped into point-leagues on Sandbox in the late 90s, the group logic was that you MUST draft at least two ace starters in your first 4 picks, or you were hosed. Why? Because that system was skewed that the top SPs earned more total points than the top regulars -- and the gap between the top pitchers was routinely much larger. (I actually figured out the group logic had gone so drastically overboard that I won an experts league twice drafting hitters and closers first - and picking up SPs in round 6 and beyond -- the group had accepted a self-fulfilling prophecy -- but after two years of having the skew demonstrated, there was a realignment of priorities more in line with reality -- and my edge vanished -- I also explained exactly what I was doing and why I was doing it -- and I was surprised that it took two years for some very smart people to accept the logic).
But, it wouldn't make sense to base real-world baseball decisions on the rules of a random fantasy-point league either.
Okay -- I can accept the logic that health is a significant variable to consider in the roster construction process. But, where is this cowering in fear of Morrow imploding coming from? He's a pitcher. So is Felix. Why not trade Felix for Young? Morrow hasn't thrown 180 innings in a season, yet. We don't KNOW about his problems. So, wouldn't it be a BETTER plan to trade Bedard for Young? If the health concern is the issue - we KNOW Bedard is gimpy.
What I'm seeing here is large arenas where "speculation" is the determining factor -- but it is speculation that seems to be cherry picked to reach a specifically desired conclusion.
Morrow -- "Might" have health issues.
Young -- "Might" have a break out season with star-level production.
I could create an equally valid argument, (IMHO), thusly:
Morrow -- "Might" have a breakout season with star-level production.
Young -- "Might" wind up in jail on assault charges.
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Yes, Pitcher production, (even when healthy), fluctuates wildly -- especially in ROTO land. We know that large chunks of this are due to defensive fluctuations, (Tampa went worst to first in DER - and helped ALL of its pitchers in 2008 -- and of course, WINS are a factor of the offense for a given pitcher, which are out of his control). But, ROTO doesn't count defensive fluctuations from everyday players.
Me? I want to know how a team with a 70 ERA+ is supposed to compete. What? You think that projection is outlandish? Why? I'm thinking with Washburn AND Morrow gone, we've got a much stronger case for guys like Feierabend and Batista ending up back in the rotation, (unless, of course, the team goes out and snags Jeff Weaver).
But, hey - Tampa had a team ERA+ of 82 back in 2007 when Young was in their OF, and jumped to 116 without him. And the Twins saw their team ERA+ drop from 104 to 97 while adding him. Why would I be at all concerned about the team defense suffering?
(Okay, my 70 ERA+ projection is being hyperbolic -- I really dont' think it could drop any more than to 75 in all honesty).
Gotta agree with you Sandy...though I do think Morrow is a significant injury risk and I wouldn't miss Washburn.