Seattle Sports Insider

PTI on His Badness

Posted by

2/3/09

Ping. If he pulls off Morrow and a salary dump for Young and then signs Bobby Abreu…I think we have a chance to win the West in 09 and we’re set up beautifully for a a healthy future.

Pong. Justin was also psyched about Young-Ichiro-Abreu. For Dr. D this is in the "far too good to be true" category ... if and when the Mariners hinted about Ichiro moving over, then I'd allow myself to go beatific. :- ) ... Taro, IceX, is Ichiro playing CF for Team Japan?

Where would Young-Ichiro-Abreu rank among ML outfields? In terms of cold, hard math, you'd probably have three 6-ish RC/27's -- not epic but certainly championship-caliber.

In terms of on-field baseball, you'd have one HOF'er, one semi-HOF'er, and a kid who right now is looking quite possibly HOF-ish.

You'd have a #1 hitter, a #3 hitter and a #4 hitter, two left and one right, and all three could run. It's got a 90's Angels kind of heft and balance.

One thing's for sure: the Mariners would go from having one leadoff hitter, and a lineup full of #7 hitters, to immediately having a 100% legit 3-hole hitter (Abreu) and an exciting young #4-hole pretender to match with their leadoff guy.

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Ping. He has a 40% out of zone swinging rate — significantly higher than either Yuniesky or Adrian!?! Unless he changes his approach, I think his upside would be Alfonso Soriano or Garrett Anderson.

Pong. Also known as striking out a lot. :- ) Let's not let the fangraphs level of detail take away our sense of proportion: Young doesn't control the strike zone. How much does that matter at 21, 22?

Again check his comp Albert Belle http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/belleal01.shtml who at age 23 had a depressing 99/25 eye ratio and even went 128/52 in his bustout 1992 year at age 25.

I could name you fifty hard-hitting cleanup guys who got abused with strikeouts when in their early 20's. But Delmon Young has the Adam Jones-ish brainy attitude at the plate. He will blossom as Belle did.

Plate patience is a wonderful thing. But it is not the only route to the Hall. Lots of guys hack their way onto the All-Star team. Talent can trump strategy.

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Ping. I’d probably trade Clement and Wlad for him, maybe not Morrow even with the injury concerns…

Pong. The latest seems to be Washburn and Clement for Young, which I would consider a balanced trade. You're essentially asking for $5M to give up the lefty catcher Clement for Delmon Young. Yes, I do think that highly of Clement.

Would Dr. D give up Clement for Delmon Young, considering the park we have in town? That's a tough one. Ask me tomorrow and I'll probably have changed my mind.

Look, Delmon Young was absolutely the #1 pick in his draft, out of high school, and that's the kind of talent he is. If the Mariners acquire him, they're seeking a near-ARod, -Junior level of commodity. They wouldn't be acquiring him to provide a "pretty decent young hitter." The idea is to roll the dice on getting an Albert Belle MVP cleanup hitter.

Either Clement or Morrow would be more painful than a Jason Statham thigh stab, but His Badness is that kind of talent.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

"I could name you fifty

"I could name you fifty hard-hitting cleanup guys who got abused with strikeouts when in their early 20’s. But Delmon Young has the Adam Jones-ish brainy attitude at the plate. He will blossom as Belle did."
I don't share your confidence. If you want an historical comparable, why not Roberto Clemente? Or Jose Guillen? At present, he has Jose Lopez's value with the bat, while playing left field. You are projecting a lot based on talent for a player with significant red flags about his commitment. The issues isn't that he's an immature brat, its that he's already satisfied with his achievements.

Not sure about Young, but

Not sure about Young, but that's the point right? If we were sure, the cost would be much higher. The clubs that cash in on a Joey Belle or a David Arias are clubs that see something and roll the dice.
It's a lot easier to call your shot after it lands than before. On either Clement or Young (or Morrow for that matter).
(Apologize again for OT: Cool Papa Bell please contact me! - Thx (silentpadna@gmail.com))

After thinking about this

After thinking about this I've gotta change my mind and agree with Kelly and Sandy.
If Young is going to be a lead glove RH bat in Safeco hes going to HAVE to mash to make sense.
So far it doesn't look good. He has bad plate discipline, doesn't make contact, doesn't walk, hits GBs like Ichiro, and doesnt' hit for power.
In fact looking closer he ALREADY has 1346 ABs and hasn't shown much improvement at all. Hes also done this with a .345 BABIP!! Considering his LD% is a little lower than league average and his IH% is only 5.4 with only slightly above-average speed it seems like that his .739 OPS may even be luck-induced. Young is a spray GB hitter so perhaps hes always going to run high BABIPs, but its VERY unlikely that hes really a .345 BABIP hitter.. those are Ichiro type BABIPS.If you consider him a "true-talent" .320 BABIP guy, his OPS suffers close to 60 points. That the .680 OPS territory. If its .300 it gets really ugly.
His development isn't tracking Belle AT ALL (who started mashing after 200 ABs or so).
Theres significant upside there, but I'm just not sure if hes ever going to reach it...Garrett Anderson with a lead glove isn't exactly that difficult of a player to find.