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Don't forget the SSI article 'Life Lesson' if you haven't seen it.  We accidentally filed it under the "ALL" domain rather than inside the baseball subdomain.  It contains several profound comments.

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BaseballHQ has two basic things to say about James Paxton:  (1) He's the Real Deal, ace-wise, and (2) he hasn't proven a thing about pitching 200 things yet.  So its advisory is that in your $260 roto league, when the bidding hits $32, $33, $34, let somebody else pay it.  Dr. D /cosigns that as reasonable, as does BJOL's feeble ranking of Paxton as #50 starter in the big leagues, below CC Sabathia and J.A. Happ.  Objectively speaking, the Smart Money will let somebody else bet the $34 (or take Zeus as the #2 pitcher in the AL).

If you're curious about technical-type details, HQ loves the "additional bumps" in FpK and SwK, "carrying K/BB and run prevention to new levels."  By FpK he means first-pitch strikes, which meant the 2+ walk rate was as solid as a rock.  By SwK he means swings and misses, meaning the 10+ strikeouts were the real deal.

Dr. D would add merely that these glitzy stats occurred despite the facts that (1) half of the time, Paxton was out of synch from a DL stint -- you remember the frustrating 2-0 counts -- and (2) that Paxton's cutter and changeup are shadows of their future selves. 

DESPITE this, DESPITE pitching out of synch much of the time, he was a close #3 to Sale and Kluber in FIP, and racked up 4.6 WAR in two thirds of a season.

There are other variations, of course.  But the 2018 Mariners' default playoff scenario is the one in which James Paxton earns 6, 7 WAR.  Could it happen?  It will happen.  If he doesn't get hurt.

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After the Gerritt Cole trade, we're now in the position of rooting for a team with a "puncher's chance" of victory -- meaning if we get lucky we can win.  We now NEED, that's need, James Paxton to win the Cy Young.

If James Paxton throws 200 innings he absolutely WILL win the Cy Young; well, you know what I mean.  And now, thanks to Jerry Dipoto's lack of urgency and the Astros' thirst for blood, Paxton has GOT to do that.

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The 1993-1998 Mariners had one Cy Young pitcher and six years' worth of bananas to go with him.  What were the best staffs, and teams, they got out of it?

The 1993 Mariners did have two nice SP's alongside the Unit, that being Hanson and Bosio, and Griffey.  But they didn't have Edgar or ARod or the rest of their offense yet.  The 2018 Mariners could easily post a better-than-99 offense.

The 1994 Mariners, in the strike year, botched everything on the mound, with a bunch of 75 ERA+ Greg Hibbards and Roger Salkelds.  I'll venture to say that Dipoto's depth will avoid that pothole, at least.  Whether it can reproduce 1993's Hanson-Bosio 125's is another Q.

The 1995 Mariners made the playoffs, of course, beating the Yankees and bringing baseball back from the strike.  They had no pitching whatsoever besides the Unit, and had a 106 offense.  But they went 27-3 in Johnson's starts, and this is the "Paxton and bats only" scenario in 2018.  Junior was hurt; Edgar was great; like we say, the offense overall was only 106.

The 1996 Mariners had Johnson injured, the back injury that caused Chuck Armstrong to reason that the 2000's Mariners would be better off without Johnson on Seattle's Mt. Rushmore.

The 1997 Mariners saw Johnson go 20-4, 2.28, about what the 2018 Mariners need from Paxton.  They had two good SP's with him, Fassero and Moyer (a non-WBC Felix and an UP season Leake or Erasmo or Marco?) and the offense going nuts.  They could easily have won it all that year, but ran into Mike Mussina.  This is the "Seattle staff surprises" scenario in 2018.

The 1998 Mariners traded Johnson mid-season, watching him then go 9-1 for .... Houston.

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Look, it's VERY possible that Paxton will get hurt in 2018.  But it's also possible he'll put on a Randy Johnson show for the ages.  If he does, it's possible that Jerry Dipoto will exploit the situation a whale of a lot better than Woody Woodward and Chuck Armstrong did.

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Of course there are many, many, MANY teams in baseball history, Cmmdt. Lassard, who had one planet-busting pitcher carry them -- Jack Morris, Chris Carpenter, Curt Schilling, Mickey Lolich, Christy Mathewson.

Hey, it's Boras' guy.  Let him pitch 3 times in the World Series ;- )  ;- )  What Would Billy Do?

I read something interesting this last week.  A GM said, it's a busted system, in which you have a player for 3 years free, have him for 3 years' arb, and then pay for his decline.  It should be torn down and rebuilt.  I agree, but until then, we got Paxton and Boras until 2021.  Three years' worth of, we hope, Randy Johnson performance for peanuts.  Beane would ride him hard and put him away wet, and then deal him for 5 top prospects in July 2020 if the M's weren't in it.

Kinda reminds you of Brazilian ju-jitsu, from which a lot of damage can be done "from the guard," on your back in a seemingly beaten position.

BABVA,

Dr D