1
Neidert? That's all in. You don't get what you need with that international money this move will be a big nail in your coffin. SignOh, sign, oh, sign. They can offer the top money now if the figures are accurate.
Dee Gordon a Mariner--in CF?!?
Actions speak louder than words, kids. Watch JeDi conduct a master class in indirect communication with one roster move.
Say 'hello' to the M's new CF-slash-2B-in-waiting, Dee Gordon :-)
Let's avoid smug, undeserved self-congratulations (NOBODY, least of all yours truly, saw Gordon moving to CF--and nobody said anything about int'l bonus money, so there) and get right down to business: Gordon's primary calling card is his elite speed. Over the past three years, he's third in MLB in BsR (according to Fangraphs) at 20.3, behind only Mookie Betts' 27.4 and Billy Hamilton's 35.6 (also, nearly double Lorenzo Cain's 10.9 over the same period). So he's one of the most dangerous baserunners in the game.
But he's also no slouch with the bat. Over the same three year period, his WrC+ has been 97. He's had two of the last three seasons with BA's above .300 (.333 in 2015 and .308 in 2017), and his K% is 14.1 over that period. So he's a contact hitter with blazing speed who might elicit Ichiro infield-hit-flashbacks a couple times a series.
That isn't to say he's without his flaws. He doesn't walk. At all. He's got a 4.0 BB% over the same three year window. So he's a slasher, pure and simple, who then guts you on the basepaths. And he's got no power. At all. His .074 ISO means he usually won't be doing good for anyone but himself with his bat. But that's ok; that's what table-setters are supposed to do. Don't ask him to drive in runs and we'll be fine.
But the conversation doesn't end there. Turns out Gordon's also excellent defensively. Per Fangraphs, he's #42 over the last three years in Def value. Now, most of that comes from him playing a MIF position, but converting to CF shouldn't do a lot of damage to his defensive value. It's possible it backfires, but for guys with truly ELITE speed, like Gordon has, he'd have to have legitimately terrible instincts not to be an ~average CF. There are examples of burner MIF failing to translate their speed into good OF defense, but I'm taking the 'over' on this one. He's already moved from SS to 2B successfully; this will be an easier move based on his physical tools.
But the most interesting facet of his acquisition, and the public statements made immediately thereafter, is how it impacts our ongoing negotiation with Ohtani. JeDi's doing a couple interesting things here. First, he's attempting to improve his CF defense situation (a plus for ANY pitcher). It's a bit of an unorthodox method, to be sure, but it demonstrates the sincerity M's brass has in shoring up the defense. This should matter to what is essentially a FA pitcher paring a list of potential landing spots down to a final choice.
Another thing it does, and probably the MORE important thing, is that it signals the M's are willing--if not eager!--to find special fits for special players. Gordon's speed is elite--just a shade less than historically good, in fact--and he's already demonstrated positional flexibility by moving from SS to 2B. You make adjustments to squeeze elite talent onto a roster, because special players don't grow on trees.
By any measure, Shohei Ohtani is a special player.
By declaring, with gusto, that M's brass sees Gordon as a great fit in CF--a position he's NEVER played--JeDi is telling Ohtani that he'll be equally flexible in finding creative ways to get the Japanese phenom onto the field, even if the methods employed seem a bit head-scratching at the time. He's demonstrating sincerity in his desire to craft a winning club RIGHT NOW; he's demonstrating flexibility in how he goes about that process; and he's demonstrating his appreciation for how to best utilize special talent.
Oh yeah. Packaged with Gordon, JeDi also picked up another million bucks to throw Ohtani's way.
If I was Ohtani, I'd be moved.
Comments
2
But I really don't see a downside here. There's always the possibility of a player completely imploding, but if Gordon is what he has been for the last four years, he's another very good piece on an affordable contract.
Still, Neidart was one of the last quality arms we had on the farm. Going to be a little tough replenishing our pitching inventory going forward, but Ohtani would go a long ways toward that end...
On its own merits, this trade is defensible--if not *smart* in a vacuum. But if it increases your odds of signing Ohtani, even if you fail to land him, it's a move worth making.
3
Count me as one that isn't sure the CF move works the way Dipoto wants it to, but I'm not sure it doesn't. Worse case scenario is that he a pretty good LF and you move Haniger or Gamel/Heredia to CF (and none of that would surprise me). This is a drop the microphone type of move, not because it absolutely works but because it is absolutely brazen.
For that reason, I love it. I hate losing Neidert, but this is a hot move. Gordon and Segura at the top of the lineup will "Cry havoc and let loose the dogs of war" on a lot of nervous pitchers. It is a gentle nudge of Cano to 1B (looks like Gamel will get some ST 1B time) and it leaves us with nothing but arms to fill.
C Zunino
1B Healy
2B Cano
3B Seager
SS Segura
LF Gamel/Heredia
CF Gordon
RF Haniger
DH Cruz
Bench:
Romine, Motter, Marjama
That's pretty dang flexible. More flexible if Ohtani is ours and an OF/DH. If he is, and you're willing to use Cruz in RF 30 times, then you can dump Heredia and add another bullpen arm.
I would have never thunk it, but this is a great move. Becaue Gordon has no pop his OPS looks Capital L Low, but it really isn't, factoring in the SB's. Would I rather have 25 HR's? You bet, but I love the flexibility this move brings us, and we got a darn good player to boot.
When Neidert is 16-8 in 3 years, we will miss him...but not until then.
And Jonez, I applaud you. that is really cool that you called that one. You know somebody in South Beach? :) Well done.
4
The belief that Gordon can play center is a 100% wish (which I share). Seems to me there was a pretty decent RF named Suzuki who was absolutely lost in center. He had speed, too...and was only moving one spot over in the outfield...not from the infield. I have no doubt Gordon's speed can get him to balls...if he heads off in the right direction. Remains to be seen.
In any case, Ohtani in right, Gordon in center and Haniger in left is a clear step back from last year in outfield defense. Put Nellie out there and it's even worse. It will cost us. Maybe Ohtani's occasional bombs and Dee's SBs soften the blow--but it won't be the same.
Which will leave the M's to show whether they then have the cojones to move Gordon to left and have Heredia play center--where he belongs.
Anyway, should be interesting. And if Ohtani comes, does that leave either Heredia or Gamel off the MLB roster...or will Gamel count as the backup 1B?
5
we see a big trade for a SP.
I'm starting to think Darvish isn't going to happen; JeDi would probably have wanted to have him in the fold, if at all possible, prior to making the pitch to Ohtani. I have zero doubt that an aggressive push was made to acquire Darvish, if he's a target the M's zeroed in on, so the fact that he isn't already here suggests we'll be looking at trades to acquire impact SP.
Archer would require a king's ransom, so that's probably not going to happen (better chance of Darvish, in all likelihood). But another Mike Leake, 2.5-3 WAR level guy *might* be enough to turn this team into legit contenders going into 2018. And with Gamel, Heredia, and our plethora of BOR spaghetti to form the core of an offer, it's not going to be tough to put together a package that nabs a quality SP without digging deeper than our depth.
6
just pattern recognition skills run amok, coupled with the gears of the old adage about broken clocks occasionally being right...
I'm excited about him. He adds dynamic options to the roster.
He's also *not* Chone Figgins, as so many LL'ers seem to insist. He's more like Juan Pierre, whose speed never left him (though his defense did slip hard around age 30). Figgins' speed left him around age 32. Ichiro's speed stayed elite until age 40. We're getting a SPEED player who'll be 30 next season. I don't see any examples of that tool declining sharply during the years we've got him controlled.
7
When moving players up and dow the fielding spectrum, 2Bers come to mind as doing better than, say, a COF.
I'm probably imagining Craig Biggio... And he started at Catcher, yea?
8
but obviously there are some that implode. In a sense, Gordon's speed *is* wasted at 2B. The only guys with better speed scores than his are CF's, and great ones at that.
That isn't to say it's automatic that he'll become a + CF, but I like his chances to do that (and thereby remain a 3+ WAR player) better than, say, Yonder Alonso's chances to hit 30 HR next year...
9
I will admit, the aggressive mediocrity of the season's end has put me off the Mariners for a while now. It's probably been two months since my last post. But I always knew that Jerry would have me crawling back before too long...
Ya just gotta love the man, whether his moves are "smart" or not. He sees something he wants, and he pursues it with a truly canine brand of dogged enthusiasm. In this case, he's decided that every year the Mariners should have someone with an argument for being the best baserunner in the league. In three of the last four years, Dee has stolen 60, 58 and 64 bases. Worth 3.3, 4.8, 3.3 WAR those years too. C'mon man, that's just fun.
As for the extra million in pool money, I'm starting to get a gut feeling that Jerry is working with a winning hand here. Seattle-Japan connection, shades of Ichiro, a pitching-friendly but fair ballpark patrolled by two CFs and an athletic freak, a team on the cusp of contention and a city that will view him as it's savior if he so much as leads us to a single postseason? Now we have the most money too, probably by about $.75 cents if I know how Jerry thinks. And we've demonstrated we're willing to get weird to accomodate special players, which is a brilliant point Jonez.
Build it and they will come, indeed... can I get a BABVA? Amen.
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that JeDi is projecting so much confidence in the Ohtani situation that it's palpable all the way on the East Coast.
And I really do think the whole demonstration of sincerity is key to these negotiations. Every team can throw money Ohtani's way, but he's so obviously self-assured of his own greatness (in a good way) that he's probably not concerned with milking cash out of this particular contract. And every team can SAY nice things about being flexible, but how do you DEMONSTRATE your sincerity in that regard before you've had a chance to deploy a roster containing the player being courted?
I really do think the Gordon-->CF declaration was for Ohtani's benefit. Then again, people tell me I overthink things too much...
11
We've complained for years (or decades, eh, Doc?) on the M's timidity. This busts that to pieces. Trust your judgment.
Go big.
Love it.
12
So many of these moves have been blatantly about Ohtani, while others can reasonably be interpreted as being about him. Planning your entire offseason and, by extension, 2018 roster around him--and doing so in full view of all and sundry--is about as deferential and sincere as you can get. The M's have even (somewhat pointedly) remained out of the IFA sale of former Braves prospects, which again could (should??) be interpreted as a pro-Ohtani (non-)gesture.
13
Reminding me more of Gillick, in the good ways. And the farm razing, somewhat. Didn't Gillick bring in some Japanese superstar, first attempt of his type in generations? Keep being like Gillick...
15
Scroll to the bottom of the LookoutLandI gotta thread to get a nice analysis of guys with Gordan’s Elite speed. They all, btw, play CF.
16
Guys with THAT level of speed almost always end up in CF, and they almost always add value while there. That isn't to say that Gordon's a lock to be a + CF in 2018, only that it's far from unrpecedented for A) a speed demon to excel in CF, and B) an organization to shift players from the IF to the OF based largely on their superior speed.
17
Almost all have been CF or SS, but there's always exceptions. He can still be your backup SS or 2b if there's long term injury.
But CF questions? He was on the radio earlier saying that he's getting in touch with ex great CF like Cameron and Griffey. Then said he lives on the same street as Griffey. Then had to get off the air because Griffey was on his call waiting. I think he's already diving in head first and owning the move. His speed, talents and determination seem to be pushing my doubts away on the reverse Ackley switch Dipoto ('s team) devised.
18
He was a reasonably high-profile prospect coming up with LAD, and he essentially 'failed' to deliver on a lot of the expectations heaped upon him (and when I say 'fail' I mean 'didn't become Rickey Henderson with a SS glove, and was probably reminded of that fact on a daily basis by the LA media'). He gets moved off his natural SS position in his last year with the Dodgers, then is traded to the Marlins, and proceeds to win a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, AND a batting title--all while stealing around 60 bases a year.
He got popped for PED's in 2016, which is obviously not great, but it's not unreasonable to expect that the suspension played a big role in his diminished output there (having that kind of thing hanging over someone's head would play havoc with focus).
So, in summary, we've got a player who can deal with adversity, who can bounce back after humiliation, and who not only can deal with a position shift but who can then become The Best At His Position, at least for one year (2015).
I see no reason to be bearish on his chances to make a successful transition to CF--where MOST players with his speed end up, and end up thriving.
19
Do you think it's possible that this sends a bad message to Ohtani?
I get the idea that it can be taken as "Hey look at us, we're willing to do WHATEVER it takes to make a player we like fit. We're willing to get creative.
At the ame time isn't there a chance, however small it may be, that a player as great as Ohtani looks at this move and thinks "WOW! No I have to pitch in front of a guy that has NEVER played CF before? "
And the reason I ask that is because my first thought upon hearing that was not positive like everyone here. I was very much on the other end of the spectrum.