So the St. Lewis Cardinals have struck the first resounding blow of the offseason, by signing Miles Mikolas to a 2 year, $15.5mil deal. At that price, he'd have to produce just two WAR over the course of the deal to be 'worth it' to the redbirds as a FA acquisition. Anyone here think he'll fail to do that?
The most recent and compelling comp for Mikolas' return to MLB after a stint in NPB is Colby Lewis, who the Rangers signed for a pittance a few years back and who immediately stepped in an pitched like a #2/#3 SP for Texas with 8.8 Fangraphs WAR in his first three years (2010-2012) back. He cost them $1.8mil, $3.0mil, and $3.2mil for those performances. Meaning they paid something like $1mil/win. Pretty shrewd.
Mikolas doesn't represent that level of savings. But after pitching 424 1/3 innings with a 2.18 ERA in Japan the past two seasons, with a profile strikingly similar to Lewis' own (superb command, strong-but-not-otherworldly K's, tons of innings, etc..), he's as close to a Sure Thing as you're going to find on the FA market. And at 29 years old, he's got the potential to be a MOR arm for another half decade. I'd be high-fiving all over the place if I was in St. Lewis right now (and, honestly, I'd *probably* rather have Mikolas than Leake on their respective contracts...though it's close and I'm not disappointed with Leake in the least--it just goes to show how well-run the Cardinals really are that they can replace someone like Leake without missing a beat or losing any draft capital. Pretty shrewd.)
A slew of minor pitching deals have also been announced, which suggests the market's beginning to heat up after Ohtani told 3/4 of MLB to take a hike. Think there might be a connection buried in there somewhere? I'm leaning 'yes,' but my pattern recognition skills aren't what they used to be...
I still think Darvish is a top priority for the M's this offseason, especially if they can nab Ohtani. You bank those two arms, and suddenly the M's have a surplus of pitching available to trade away if they so choose. I hear Miami's holding a fire sale and has a bunch of super interesting players available. Everyone knows about Stanton, and just about everyone knows about Yelich and Ozuna, but my favorite piece in that pile might be Dee Gordon. Bear with me.
Robinson Cano's fine as a 2B. Better than fine, in fact--he's great! But he's also 35 years old, and the primary value he represents is that he's got a MOTO bat at a MIF position. The only way you leverage that value is by having good production at the CIF spots--otherwise you're just wasting half of his value. So if you're going to have some 80 OPS+ scrub at 1B and Robbie at 2B, why not switch things up and put Robbie over to 1B and bring in a guy who's averaged 3.4 WAR at 2B over the last four years, who is one of the best baserunners in the game (60 SB last year, right in line with his last four years' rate, and 9.4 BsR--good for 4th in the league, eight slots above Jarrdon Dyson), and who is over half a decade younger than Robbie? All things considered, I'd rather have Santana manning 1B on a 3-4 year deal, but Cano's almost certainly going to end up at 1B sometime in the next couple of years. Jamming the roster with 1B/DH types causes trouble--good trouble if they can all hit, obviously, but trouble nonetheless--so if we're asking ourselves 'Gordon vs. Santana,' I think it's closer than it first appears.
The obvious reason not to get Gordon would be Robbie's positional value generated while he's holding down 2B. But, again, if you're NOT going to get an average-or-better 1B to pair with him, you're squandering most of the value Robinson Cano brings to the club by wearing a 2B glove. So if you're committed to his bat anyway, and your option is to sign someone like Eric Hosmer for $20mil/year, Carlos Santana for $15mil/year, or Yonder Alonso for $12mil/year, there's an opportunity to get ahead of the curve by sliding Robbie over now while acquiring one of the better 2B in the league who's in the middle of his prime. Gordon's owed about $13mil/year for the next three years, and if he continues to produce at the same rate as the last four years then he's a bargain AND he fills a need as a legitimate, playoff-contender-caliber leadoff hitter (the best the M's would have had since Ichiro, I might add...)
I'm not saying Gordon to the 2017-2018 M's is a smart move. In isolation, it isn't. But isolation assumes a reasonable chance that the club would be able to find a warm body to play 1B and hit somewhere other than the bottom third of the order. The M's have failed to do that for quite some time, so maybe it's time to bite the bullet and make a move that improves things immediately. I like Robbie's chances to out-hit Yonder Alonso for the next 3-4 years, don't you? If so...
Also, it looks like Leonys Martin signed with the Motor City Kitties for $1.75mil. Things are starting to heat up--and while we've got to get a few dishes cooking, we need to be careful not to get burned in the process.
The point about squandering Cano's value by not deploying a plus bat at 1B is well taken. You are not only getting premium production at 2B, you are paying a super-premium salary to get it.
Which is preferable?
2B OPS 120-ish, 1B OPS 100-ish (Cano and Healy)
2B OPS 100-ish, 1B OPS 120-ish (Cano at first, generic 100-ish young 2B-man with better range than an aging Cano)
Hokay, Healy has upside. But it's certainly arguable that the two scenarios are a wash.
Especially if acquiring a SUPERIOR option to the ~100 OPS+ 1B costs around as much as Robbie himself. Part of my reasoning is anchored on my confidence that Robbie WILL have to move off 2B sometime in the next couple years. If he doesn't have to, the calculus changes a bit--but not really *too* much. You're still stuck with the problem of being completely incapable of getting production out of the 1B slot--a slot that SHOULD be relatively easy to wring an above average output from. How we solve that problem is going to be critical to taking a legitimate shot at the playoffs before Cano and Felix become burdens on the roster. It certainly APPEARS to me that 2B might be the easier slot to fill THIS PARTICULAR OFFSEASON than 1B. Carlos Santana is really the only guy I'd be happy with them going out and snagging from the free agent pile, and even then it would have to be on a reasonable contract ($14-15mil/year for 3-4 years--basically what Cruz got).
And yeah, if Healy (or whoever else they acquire) can produce 10-20% better than league average, this conversation is rightly moot (for a couple years, at least).
I thought the same after 2016 then the injury explanations started coming. This year according to Fangraphs he was 5th in Def, 6th in UZR/150. Yes Dee Gordon was 1st and 2nd. By most Range stats he has range on Cano by a step or so yet Cano had 3 more OOZ plays in 7 less innings. Caught a comment and presentation on MLBN a few days ago about Cano's 1 motion catch and throw relays that are thoroughly impressive. I don't move him off 2b unless all of that goes away. Right now he's my #1 choice in all the land for 2b. Gordon looks awesome if I don't already have Cano.
Healy has been good defensively at 1b while never playing there full time and having 3x the innings at 3b. He's no Olerud, but there is hope that he could be well above average with more regular work there. He came up at 21 and turns 26 in January. I'm hopeful for that situation already.
I really think we need arms and another OF is pretty much it. Santana sounds good but seems highly unlikely. 2 rotation spots, 2 back end arms and an OF would be higher priorities to me.
Didn't know Cano was still borderline elite defensively. That does push the needle back in the 'leave him be' direction. Still, the point about the epic fail to find a REASONABLE 1B option stands unmolested. By itself it's not enough to push a guy like Cano off his position, but seriously, they *ARE* wasting his primary value with that failure--and Cano's value will only get lower from here on out.
All that said, maybe you try to put together a package for a guy like Yelich if you're trying to go all-in for this season. Would take a hefty sum, for sure, but it sounds like the Marlins are open to moving pretty much everybody making more than a couple million. Yelich is about to get PAID for being a 4WAR CF with a picture-perfect template of blended power, speed, and defense.
Dee is in. You got the wish in a way. But he's being asked to move to CF? Crazy.
Gordon's a mortal lock to be a + defensive 2B for the next few years, and a really safe bet to be an average MLB CF defensively. This move provides MIF depth, OF depth, a leadoff hitter than lets other guys slide into more optimal roles (Segura, specifically) while nabbing another $1mil in int'l bonus money AND not costing a huge commitment.
At ~$13mil/year, Gordon's eminently affordable if he continues his ~3.1 WAR pace of the last four years. And if he slips to being an ML-average player, he's still not a problem roster-construction-wise. If you're looking at someone like, say, Lorenzo Cain at $15-20mil/year for 4-5 years, compared to rolling the dice on Gordon a bit at $13mil/year for 3 years, it's not insane. Cain's the better player, but he's also two years older with his defense in apparent decline the last three years.
In my book Cano's range has gone almost completely in the tank. Perhaps he compensates with positioning, I dunno. Also in my book, his biggest asset is his incredible skills and physical tools in turning the double play. That would be missed if he moved.
There's always a 53-year-old Rafael Palmiero apparently waiting in the wings. :)
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/rafael-palmeiro-seeks-to-defy-odd...
I don't see a fit but maybe somewhere. Miami might need some cheap players with major league experience in a couple months. I wouldn't be surprised if he couldn't make it out of spring with anyone though.
Nice find.
Mariners gave up Minor League catcher David Banuelos for some additional$1 million in int'l slot money from Twins. That closes gap that Rangers had considerably.
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The Twins are thinking he's a better investment than a million dollar catcher on the international market. He's one of those potential Dan Wilson guys, but we JUST drafted him. He's years away.
Dipoto found a way to get more cash that doesn't hurt Seattle in the next half-decade at all, really. I'm surprised the Twins were willing and didn't hold Seattle over a barrel, but let's hope it brings Ohtani here.
Yeah, seems an odd, odd play by the Twins. Banuelos looks FAR away from a big league roster...strange move on their part, obvious move on ours. And yeah, here's hoping it lends itself to Ohtani.
Whatever it takes.
I'm totally out of the loop on the latest tweaks to the minor league FA system in MLB.
in exchange for 2017 3rd round pick Jacob Pearson (who slugged .284 as a 19 year old in Rookie Ball, for whatever that's worth...). Looks like Ohtani fever has struck, and the Twins are dispensing medication as fast as they can.
Mariners and Angels going at it like pugilists in the ring. Mariners still have bonus pool edge on every remaining team except the Rangers...who I view as deep longshots.
Rumors say Ohtani loved Buster Posey, though...so...that's not great.
about the guy. Obviously a generationaly-gifted catcher on both sides of the ball, just looking at his stat line, but he's also frequently regarded as one of the Good Guys in all the (limited) material I read about him.
Here's hoping Zunino's got that kind of cred in an M's hat five years from now...
What is this sorcery?!
Ken Rosenthal reporting. Heresy what?
http://m.mariners.mlb.com/news/article/263088800/mariners-acquire-dee-go...
EDIT: For CF?!
Gj, jonez!
I'd only take credit for prognostication if I'd tossed in a line about int'l bonus money... Still, I see this is precisely what I was hoping for: a hedge against Cano's aging AND against our continued inability to get adequate production from 1B.
Cano's not *FAR* from being a sunk cost on the roster (and I don't mean that in a bad way, I simply mean that he's locked in at his price so there's no point wringing our hands about *where* he plays) so might as well make the best move available. And at his current price, Dee Gordon is DEFINITELY tradeable--even if we had to pick up a fraction of his remaining contract.
Toss in $8mil if we move him down the road, in exchange for (hopefully) the extra bonus pool needed to get Ohtani, and we'll all smile for the next decade.
i like the idea. This billy Hamilton.
But I guess he wanted a player who didn't automatically have to be subbed out against same-handed pitching? So he doubled what Jarrod Dyson was gonna get in FA for that privilege?
The revolving door continues - we'll see what else goes out through it, and whether a Japanese superstar comes in.
Say hello to the new Chone Figgins.
Oldish middle infielder with absolutely zero power who can steal bases (if he's healthy?) converted to a different position with which he's not experienced, and asked to keep BABIP'ing .360 (this time while changing from AAAA to an actual major league) and no other marketable skill at all.
The man doesn't even draw walks.
Hot, rotting garbage move.
And yay! We get to pay him even more than we paid Chone. Plus, he took steroids and gained no measurable benefit...and has had trouble staying healthy.
What is their roster plan? I try not to judge Dipoto on a per-move basis, but that's a really weird move at first blush considering their best prospect plays CF and they have 82 other players capable of doing it - and they need their money for pitchers.
So I assume some outfielders are heading out, then?
in the M's farm system are OF, you're looking at losing those bits if you go make any splashy trade for SP. Darvish should be priority #1, but if someone like Archer's available and you can swing it...you have to consider your top 'spects to be liquid in that case.
So yeah, Gordon's a somewhat strange hedge against losing OF depth, or maybe someone JeDi's talking to really likes Gamel? Not sure.
and half of the outfield for Stanton? I don't know. Deciding to see if Maniger can pitch too, so we have 2 2-way players? Saves roster spots that way.
Bishop isn't ready until late this year at best is what I've heard and there's a lot of games to be played before then. Just don't completely block him. There's potential that him and Gordon could be Cameron and Ichiro level defensive pair we haven't seen since...Guti Ichiro pair? Gordon in LF flanking Bishop in 2019 doesn't sound horrible either.
Is Gamel taking up 1b?
it happened
We’re hearing there’s some slot money coming with Gordon. Stay tuned for details.
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It's allllll about the international slot money. Feels like the Ms were given a bonus number to meet and will move heaven and earth to reach said number.
That...if there's IFA money coming here, I can tolerate the bizarre roster it creates.
But seriously, it's not like our roster is stuffed with speed+D guys. This one can play an elite 2B, can *probably* plug-and-play as a plus CF from day one, and provides a LEGITIMATE, contender-class leadoff hitter for an already good lineup that previously lacked one (Segura's better as a #2 in my opinion).
Neidert is the Mariners' No. 2 prospect, per http://MLBPipeline.com . Sounds like there are several other Minor Leaguers also going to Miami. Still waiting for teams to confirm.
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Nobody needs young starting pitching, it's fine. Gohara shipped off for what turned out to be nothing, Taijuan for a SS and an OF we're probably gonna trade to make room for Gordon, Neidert for Gordon himself...
Dipoto really wants to be Pat Gillick. He'd better be.
The other two, I would take your judgment over my own thumb-in-the-wind guesstimation of whether they're fettucini or spaghetti at this point. But Neidart's got legit MOR upside--losing that ALWAYS hurts.
If we get Ohtani, it's completely irrelevant that we lost Neidart. If we don't, it's not exatly a crippling move. But your point about bleeding these guys off left and right for *next to nothing* is 100% sound. You simply CANNOT win, short- or long-term, if you discard ALL of your 15% pulls at the free, cheap, ML-average player deck.
After comparing him to Gillick in the other thread. I feel the same.
* * *
Here's what it looks like to me:
1) Dyson replacement who can play all time if healthy despite Matt's concerns about his middling hitting skillset which I share (not worth making this trade by itself)
2) Future Cano replacement at 2B and will likely move out of CF when Kyle Lewis is ready around the same time (still not worth it)
3) Marlins only team that would give up more int'l bonus money, and held out til Ms caved and included some of their only real prospects like Neidert (only worth it if Ohtani-san comes here, but then... worth it)
Neidert is not an ace, but he is a good player who has barely scratched the surface of what he can do. I wish we didn't have to move him. If it means Ohtani comes here, I will accept nearly anything, but if he DOESN'T come here then it's a terrible allocation of resources.
Again, assuming he stays.
I like your analysis as an explanation for the strategic thought involved. Either it's a move to ultimately help nail down the Ohtani trade (cap money), or it's a trade towards a Cano move to 1B (next year?). I don't like it as simply a move for a CF'er. If that's all it is, why give up Neidert?
With Ohtani... people talk about how much of your farm a Mike Trout would be worth. What if you're picking up Syndergard at 23 who's also Joc Pederson in 1 roster spot (going with batted ball comps)? Imagine having Kirk Gipson on the bench many days without it costing a roster spot? What's that worth?
MarinersPR
@MarinersPR
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#Mariners acquire two-time All-Star Dee Gordon and international slot money from Miami in exchange for minor leaguers Robert Dugger, Nick Neidert and Christopher Torres.
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Neidert is the headliner. Torres could also be something someday as an infielder, but he's still a teen who just had his first taste of rookie ball. Dugger is an arm we used between the pen and the starting lineup, but is probably a reliever as a big-leaguer. He's a bullpen straw throw-in who could be nice some day, like any of a dozen other arms.
Dipoto quote:
“We’re going to play Dee in center field,” Dipoto said. “It’s a conversation that’s already occurred. We’re very excited about bringing on this kind of athlete…his athletic ability is obvious to those who watch, but his ability to close ground, and more specifically, his launchability, that first-step burst that Dee gets is on par with the elite center fielders in baseball. We feel like that gives him a chance to be a separator in center field.”
Also, he's a long-term plan guy, so like I said: probably takes over for Cano at second at some point, because we don't have anyone else in the system ready to do that in any way.
Haven't seen yet how much slot money Miami is sending.
EDIT: Mariners PR blog link: https://marinersblog.mlblogs.com/mariners-acquire-two-time-all-star-dee-...
1 million dollars! We now have more slot money than anybody for Ohtani.
Like I said, I think the Mariners know the number they need. If so, that would be a VERY good thing. Their willingness to do whatever it takes to get to that number also shows their respect for Ohtani-san without spouting it off in the paper. The blog post didn't mention it at all. They are not drawing him into their financial dealings, they are just making their financial moves with him obviously in mind.
Fingers crossed.
is their signalling to Ohtani (via Gordon) that they are DEFINITELY flexible when it comes to deploying uniquely talented players. Rumor is that Ohtani's SPEED is just a tick below elite, and there have been rumblings about HIM playing CF at some point.
Picking up Gordon, and IMMEDIATELY declaring 'He's our new CF--dude can burn, has great instincts, and is elite at 2B so there's no doubt in our minds that he'll be a quality CF,' seems like some pretty astute gamesmanship on JeDi's part. He's saying to Ohtani, indirectly, that there's absolutely no ossified thinking in the M's organization. Also, as a pitcher, wouldn't YOU like to have one of MLB's stolen base leaders flagging fly balls for you in CF?
Multiple levels of thinking going on here. Probably a few more points I haven't identified yet. Great stuff as far as I'm concerned--and the BEST part is that Gordon's still a liquid asset. Things don't work out in CF, or with Ohtani, or whatever, it's not like you're stuck with him--and even if you are, it's not like he's a redundant part.
One thing I'll say, the M's are demonstrating to Ohtani what lengths they are willing to go to in order to get him. Either they've got him sewn up and need to make this move or they are hoping it separates them from the remaining contenders.
!!!
...that the Mariners weren't serious.
No one in the game has worked harder to get Ohtani than the Mariners. Period.
He's got to know that by now.
This has weight. Taro can fill it in, but I'll drop by again in 30 minutes.
As in...the culture of Japanese baseball prizes pulling out every stop, turning over every couch cushion, flipping over every card in the deck, to get where you're trying to go, particularly as a statement of respect when where you're trying to go is into a contract with one of their stars?
There's that angle, but there's also the angle of returning that respect when someone is going out of their way to try to do said sofa diving for change.
The Rangers just have the money, so yay, money.
But the M's are going out of their way to get the money.
It adds pressure not only as the M's respecting Ohtani, but for Ohtani to reciprocate the M's efforts.
It's not just money, it's money *for Ohtani*.
Well, that was an "edge of seat" 30 minutes @LookoutLanding @MiLBMariners
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I like Joe - glad he's still here. But with Dipoto, there's always a "for now..." after that statement when it comes to young players. Can't be comfortable.