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Say WHAAAAAAaaaaa? Dept.
Grizzly points out the obvious:
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One statement from DiPoto stuck out to me. Talking about the starting pitching depth:
“We are going to look at the free agent market,” he said. “We are certainly not opposed at potential for trades. We still feel like in the big picture that we are 10-11 deep with guys that we feel secure in starting a Major League game. We are comfortable with that group, but we’d like to augment it."
10-11 deep? With guys he would be "secure" in starting MLB games? Is he just glad-handing here? I'm not sure I'm secure with the top 5.
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Bringing a chuckle from G "I Own the Seattle Minors" Moneyball:
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He didn't say THIS year...
So maybe he means Gohara and Neidert and Moore in 2021. ;) I'm with you - they have work to do there. They chose to keep Paxton over Walker, though. Apparently they looked at FIP too. Paxton is not exactly a paragon of health, though, so the Ms need to be 7 or 8 deep. They just traded Blackburn, so they lost that card.
Moore is on the list. Andrew could make the jump in a pinch - he's definitely a professional pitch-thrower. Yarbrough is probably on his list. But I don't get to 11 dudes either. His math is a little suspect.
To free agency!
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We notice that when Jerry Dipoto says something like "we're set from the right hand side of the plate now" (post-Valencia) then you had better lean back. Dipoto's backgammon cup is rattling with a 24" vertical shake and he is just about to throw some Segura dice at your rail with gusto, as Moe Dawg put it. I think even the most jaded M's fan is now wondering where Dipoto's starting-rotation dice roll is going to land now.
Would expect it to baseline at Wade Miley types and go up from there. We'll give Billy Zoom 3 names to make 1 and if they hit, he can take over the blog...
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TEN OR ELEVEN YOU SAY? MAYBE IN BASE FOUR MATH, Dept.
There are maybe 8-9 starting pitchers on the 40-man if you squint hard. And as you know, 1-to-3 of the Big Five are going to get injured. Making the following list very white-knuckle. Let's use Bill James' "brevity is the soul of insightful sabermetrics" axiom:
PAXTON - A top-10 AL SP roto draft pick
FELIX - Fully expect him to figure out a mild improvement next year (3.65 ERA)
WBC-san - arm is month to month now. HOPE for 130 innings and a playoff run. Don't count on it
KKKKARNS - will become yet another glorious SSI trophy call
MIRANDA - A comer. M's staff making nice progress with talented Cuban. But he's "meh" as penciled-in #5 starters go
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CODY MARTIN - if this guy is your number 6 you've got some NRI'ing to do. Interesting, high "floor" for a scrub, but no #6. Here's the POTD on him
ZACH LEE - Brian Holman type using 4-pitch mix and 1+ walk rate in an intelligent attempt at ... mediocrity. Dubious #7. Here's a Level 101 on him
PAUL FRY - at this point you could say any pitcher in baseball is "somebody we're secure about starting a game"
ANDREW MOORE, RYAN YARBOROUGH, others not on the 40-man - :- O
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The Mainframe would like to mail Jerry a cubic yard of salt to go with the 10-11 starters comment. But it's safe to say he'll be attempting to deal for rotation help -- or even make a run at Rich Hill? -- and certain to say that Dipoto will NRI at least three outsiders of Martin's and Lee's credentials or greater.
But what I want to know is: what's wrong with Tom Wilhelmsen? :- )
Enjoy,
Dr D
If you were pushing the number. I'd be comfortable with him stretching out to starting, if not for the hole that'd leave. Altavilla would be more of a stretch but the only other name I can even see a switching back from the pen option to add them. Some non-prospects that they see more with?
If I had to push all my chips in on guessing Dipoto's pitcher move.
Santana could be had. Would point out that there are a bunch of teams that would like to have a CF inthe mold of Martin.
And we've added some guys who can go play CF. Stick Haniger in CF (where it appears he may have a better-than-average glove) and 90 OPS+ with 20 homers would play very nicely.
What can Martin AND Gohara get you? Hmmmmm....
St. Louis is known to be wanting a CF. What have they that we like....Hmmmmmm???
Under control for this year only at $12mil. Down year last year do to a 20%(!) Hr/fb ratio. Keeps the walks down enough though and is a worm killer. 56% grounder rate last year right in line with his career. Last year looks to be mostly homer and a bit of babip bad luck driven. Doesn't throw a ton of innings but 171 last year and 300 total the last 2 years. No loss of fb speed last year so theres that. Plus being 30 and under control for only a year shouldn't cost you too much. Maybe Powell/Heredia and Unsworth? Martin straight up if you believe in the young guys in center/left? Seems like a good deal to me?
Let's stick with the cardinals. Martin, Gohara, Moore/Yarbrough and Peterson or Drew Jackson for Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. If they want Neidert instead of Moore/Yarbrough them they throw in Tommy Pham. Tyler Lyons is that trade mark MLB lefty out of the pen and Martinez is a legit young stud. Pretty much what we wanted Taijuan to be. He's 25, pre-arb and he checks all the boxes. Pretty much a 3 flat era over 370+ innings the last 2 years. 8-9 k 3 bb. Big time fastball. I vividly remember him taking us to the cleaners last year. And if you are gonna give up the farm (outside of Lewis and Tank) he's the kind of player you want to get back. Heck you could throw on Alex jackson if they really wanted him.
The Father.
The Son.
The Holy Ghost.
Best I can do right now.
All the M's prospects, including Tank and Diaz are on the table for "The Father"
Unfortunately, I cannot identify the father, although DePoet might be running DNA tests if he has a "big young controllable name as a possible one or two within a year, could well step in as high as 2 if Kuma or Paxton aren't right this Spring. Doubt he is a F/A
The son, the GM might have to bail him out of custody from some joint where he did not "fit in", and shows a negative dining hall adjustment as he keeps banging his spoon on the table. Don't see many of these on the F/A list.
The wholly ghost.. Gone, gone gone to a shiv in the shoulder, arm, or brain for over a year in some hospital or clinic altercation. The wholly ghost lost in the short term. Can he be rehabbed coming from far back in the stretch turn?
I don't even have any frontrunners, although I doubt they would be named Hillary.
Lots of good names have been mentioned as candidates in the past couple threads on this site, but I don't think I've seen the name DePoet will grab, here or elsewhere ... yet.
And we won't have a clue until the selection has been finalized.
Whatever, I do believe it will happen by Rule 5 day, or not until next March.
While Thanksgiving is not a religious holiday, DePoet has spit on the shoes of the media by making a trade the day before thus messing with the writers and broadcasters "short" vacation .... just when they wanted to have their slippers on.
And I believe Tie One On was traded to let other GM's know DePoet is serious. Dr. D gets points for recognizing the long faces in Cinci where they sat on their hands and Cozart still remains against their wishes. There is a phrase about post Thanksgiving stuffing bodily functions which applies to the Cinserely Natties.
zoom
I'm unenthusiastic about parting ways with Martin, our defensive sparkplug and our clubhouse/dugout "spiritual leader". If Haniger is truly a decent replacement, then let's see what he attracts in terms of starting pitching. But- Martin is a critical element of a 2017 Mariners' Wold Series effort, according to this amateur pundit!
Not a problem, Boom,
My suggestion was based on getting the lettuce to the rabbit. St. Louis is hungry for a CF and we have one. We need a starter, they happen to have some.
Haniger gets you no starting pitching. He was sort of a throw in to this deal. There are other ways to get SP's, but they cost you a bunch of your farm guys....or a ton of FA cash.
St. Louis has two fine young starters, both threw in the bigs last year: Reyes is 22 and had a 1.57 ERA in 47 MLB innings last year. 1.2 WHIP and K'ed 10.2. Has K'ed 12/9 across 334 MiLB innings. Walks some guys, but he can bring it. All talk is that he's in the St. Louis rotation in '17.
But Luke Weaver is a bit under the radar and is sneaky good! Former 1st round pick, 23 years old, had 8 starts last year, a 5.7 ERA, a 1.6 SHIP but K'ed 11/9.
He was lights out from A- AAA in '15-'16" 1.62 ERA in 105 innings during '15 in A+ and followed that up with a great AFL stint. In '16 her threw 77 AA innings with a 1.4 ERA. Then he threw 6 AAA innings with a 0.00 ERA before getting the call. Basically hes a roll at the Taijuan dice again.
You could get Leake but he costs you $15m x 4 and he isn't that good. Lynn you might get....but you'll limit his innings this year. Martinez would require a big bid, as Kraken suggests.
Martin can walk in '19. Who knows if there is even a QO system, then? For the rght arm, I would swap him out...no problem.
Well... MLB has obviously stalled on the CBA negotiations, and thus teams seem reluctant to make any more major moves until this contract is resolved.
Thus, a question for the SSI group of highly analytical thinkers...
How does this year's free agent market change if no draft choices are lost either this year or sometime in the near future?
What happens if there is only one draft? How does that effect teams ways of approaching the lesser free agents this year?
I am curious as to your thoughts...