Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Zac Curtis, LHP

not exactly a Carter Capps extension there, keed

Posted by

11/25/16

G-Money's initial squib had been, in the Napoli thread,

Zac Curtis is a short lefty who has destroyed the minors with his 4-pitch repertoire and is basically fearless. He's a lefty who might not be a LOOGY, but I'm not sure he has the stuff to treat the bigs like he treated the minors. It'll be fun to find out though.

Essentially this was Walker for Segura, and Marte for the 2 others. How you feel about the deal is probably predicated on how you feel about Segura. It's definitely bold, though. DiPoto isn't scared of risk.

ROAR SCHACH, Dept.

Zac Curtis is a compelling riddle and a bit of an inkblot test - how you see him tells you something about how you see baseball. On the one hand, his ERA is 1+ in over 100 minor league games. Bill James said, in the 1980's, "Major League teams pay entirely too much attention to what their scouts tell them, and entirely too little attention to the way their players have performed." Well, Curtis has purrrrrformed purrrrfectly.

Here is Curtis' record at thebaseballcube.com. Lifetime 111 IP with a 13.7 K rate, 2.8 walk rate and measly 0.4 homer rate. Tim Lincecum set the standard for Zombieland-level "not to be fooled with" rage in the minors and he was 12.6 / 3.3 / 0.5.

On the other hand, the Mariners in 2016 kicked Vidal Nuno into the deep freeze like Bruce Willis and those three Army visitors in The 5th Element. Their reasoning? That Vidal Nuno can pitch (40-50 effective big league starts) but you don't want a soft-tossing lefty in a major league bullpen.

What the MARINERS are saying, Dept.

Hadn't caught any Dipoto quotes as to whether Zac Curtis might be used as a starting pitcher. Except for the 10-11 SP's deep thingie, which I guess is a pretty definitive YES, eh. ...Curtis did nothing but start at Middle Tennessee State. He has done nothing but relieve for the Arizona Diamondbacks. If you stand 5' 9" then ML scouts assume you can't start until proven otherwise, as NFL scouts swore up and down that Russell Wilson couldn't play quarterback.

So there are three things. Or four.

PRECEDENTS and QUID PRO QUO's, Dept.

Out of the bullpen, Curtis averaged 90.9 MPH with his fastball and used a two-pitch mix. His LOOGY-style two plane slider was 83 MPH and he threw it a good 35% of the time.

Which, coincidentally, was Vidal Nuno's slider mix - 35% usage at 84 MPH off an 89 MPH fastball. Admittedly, the separation for Curtis' slider is a little better, and in real life, that can make all the difference between a meatball and a Charlie Furbush (who also threw 90-92 MPH with a two plane slider). Furbush had just enough sting to his fastball that batters could NOT "sit in between," thinking about the slider during his windup, and adapting to the fastball if they saw it. With Nuno that looked easier to do.

Jose Alvarez of the Angels and Dan Jennings of the White Sox are the main LOOGYs right now who work Curtis' pitch mix out of the bullpen. Alvarez fired 67 most effective innings for Dipoto in 2015 (8 K, 3 BB, 0.7 HR, 3.60 ERA) and then last year advanced to the upper tiers of the LOOGY line.

Curtis may have an edge on Alvarez in terms of the heavy blonk he reportedly gets to his groundballs. Dan Jennings walked 4 men per game last year, with not too many strikeouts, but his 54-65% ground ball rate and 0.15 homer rate (!) led to a 2.08 ERA last season.

LET'S! GO TO! the VIDEO! TAPE!

Here is a July 24th fastball that strikes out Jay Bruce with the bases loaded. First of all, the Billy Beane look and demeanor is definitely not appreciated. :- /

:: kidding :: What is more appreciated, though ... the delivery is Sid Fernandez from the word Go and Bruce never sees the pitch up in his eyes. This pitch is a reminder of Jerry Dipoto's belief that --- > if a pitcher throws "in tunnels" (back to front of the strike zone, changing speeds) and goes up the elevator shaft, then "it's not as critical" to use hair-fine command on both edges of the plate.

Dr. D could not agree more. Hisashi Iwakuma has all kinds of margin for error, even with an 87 MPH fastball, because of this approach.

Warning: Curtis has a comically short stride (contrast Charlie Furbush) and the "apparent velocity" of his fastball is down even from its meager 91 MPH average. Balanced against that is the Laredo arm angle, which ceteris paribus (other things being equal) adds sting to a fastball, especially LH-on-LH but even sometimes LH-on-RH if it's you against him one time.

This slider to Gerardo Parra is mushy and up in the zone -- usually an invitation to a 430-foot shot -- but the arm action "sells" it as 92 MPH and Parra, out in front, cues it off the jiggly end of the bat.

Curtis is on the 40-man and will no doubt go to Arizona pitching for a job as the M's first LHP out of the 'pen if there are no bullpen trades. Which hopefully there will be.

Dr. Detecto is not thrilled with this player. That's based on his sidearming 90 MPH template and where Curtis fits within it.

Mark down an SSI grade that is one (1) notch lower than most people's. That is assuming that Curtis relieves, as opposed to using four pitches in a Billy Beane rotation. You gotta love the Tim Lincecum minors line, though.

Enjoy,

Jeff

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Comments

I want better footage to judge Curtis by

There's SOMETHING about the way he throws his fastball that messes hitters up badly. It's not on them before they can react, but he led the NCAA in Ks his senior year, against composite bats that guys can choke up on with pepper swings. He led in Ks LOOKING, not just swinging. It looks odd coming out of his hand even though he has excellent strike zone capabilities and I haven't figured out why. He destroyed the minors the same way.

He reminds me of George Sherrill that way: It's not his stuff that messes people up, it's the little things. The way he holds the ball, the motion.

But because I can't put my finger on it yet, I'm just assuming he'll be an average pen lefty even though his minor league stats are killer. That dividing line when you don't have great pure stuff is hard to toe when you get to the majors. Breaking balls that used to get whiffs are now fouled off until a meatball shows up. But Sherrill did all right, and hopefully Curtis will too.

If it continues I don't have to understand it, just enjoy it.

Ab. so. lutely.

Hitters are obviously not picking up the ball well out of his hand, and that is a huge "non-Fangraphable" factor for many pitchers, relievers especially. It's one of the reasons this is a guessing game for the pro's, much less us.

From the CF camera there is no way to know what the ball looks like from the batter's box; you have only hitters' reactions to go off, and those are off-the-scale in Curtis' favor. Even in his ML cup of coffee his problem was more walks (and nerves, and being behind in the count) than people catching a Steve Cishek center-cut pitch and launching it. He gave up 13 H and 2 HR in 13.0 IP despite pitching behind all the time.

If he hides the ball as well as it seems he might, then certainly LH-on-LH you've got something interesting. With 13 relievers you've got room for a 1-, 2-batter LHP.

Personally see this draw at the deck as --- > not the greatest odds, not a Haniger-style or Vieira-style draw :- ) but it is a draw well worth taking. At least it's off the beaten path.

5 players difficult to project for 2017

This from MLB Trade Rumors:

“It’s a trade that could turn into a win-win for both organizations or it could easily blow up for either team,” ESPN’s David Schoenfield writes in his analysis of the five players in the deal, as “all five players are difficult to project moving forward.” Schoenfield expects the Mariners to trade for more pitching, which might require a large payroll increase from 2016, though Schoenfield figures Seattle is a clearly all-in on competing next season.

Which makes a ball game. With all the info out there, it's harder to trade fixed levels of performance. But when one GM and another have different feels for where a player might go -- as the M's with "Tie One On" -- then you've got a fair difference of opinion and a much easier trade.

Personally don't feel very confused about Jean Segura. He looks as solid to me as the next player of his level. Every player is up-and-down but I'm bullish on Segura's floor.