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Divish: "Asked if Valencia trade means no more Dae-Ho Lee, Dipoto said: "Very little likelihood that both could fit on a same roster."
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Gordon linked us up to the Mariners-A's swap. As the MLB.com article notes, Valencia was the A's starter at 3B in the first half, switching to a Ben Zobrist role in the second half.
Patch his A's two-year stats together and you get .288 with 28 HR and 88 RBI in 177 games. The big story is that Danny Valencia is baseball's most extreme platoon hitter, or a very reasonable facsimile thereof. You get a lefty out on the mound that day, and Valencia has demonstrated a 140 bat that lines right up with Cano's, Seager's, and Cruz's.
In fact as Valencia ages into his early 30's, he's got Fangraphs wondering about his ability to now hit righties. He was Dave Cameron's magic bullet for the Mets' offense last year. And here is yet another discussion, suggesting that Valencia has developed the ability to drive the ball against righties.
Valencia's batting eye isn't cause for worry, but neither is it his strong suit. Even vs LHP's he's a 300'ish hitter with real nice power, a Victor Martinez / Kyle Seager type as opposed to a David Ortiz type or a Mike Napoli type.
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Which raises the question, how do you get a player like this for (looked like) a minor league throw-in. Well, of course the answer has to be that Billy Beane likes Paul Blackburn very well. Which is Beane being Beane; we're sure Blackburn will lock down the M's 6-2 in July to pull down his tenth win.
Valencia solves the 'Bach platoon right then and there, or he gives you the heavy Zobrist action around the diamond and in left field, or he just gives you an Earl Weaver thumper off the bench. Here he is going "Houston, We Have a Problem" over the deep CF fence, StatCast and all the trimmings.
Defensively, John Dewan has him triangulated as such, taking his whole career in at a glance:
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1B: Average-solid in limited reps
2B: Can back up
3B: Average-mediocre until last year, then horrific last year
LF: Questionable but inconclusive
RF: Dubious
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Looks like a tremendous 1B platoon guy -- better than Adam Lind, albeit from the shorter half of the job -- a Weaver championship bench player -- AND an insurance policy around the diamond. Valencia plays for a different club every year, so I guess there are better fringe players around than I thought there were :- )
BABVA,
Dr D
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Comments
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. . . or even if it doesn't, you gotta love the fact that Dipoto turned Montgomery into 1 and 1/2 everyday starters. I loved Montgomery but sure didn't think he was worth that.
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Instead of Vogt, who could backup at 1B and C, we got a guy who can hit as well that can backup Vogelbach and Smith. Nice. And if he has a rep as a bit of a clubhouse problem, the issues should be easily handled given the character strength of the existing roster. I'm impressed by DiPoto being able to find gems, even if they're topaz and amethyst rather than diamonds and rubies.
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My first reaction was the same, great platoon for Vogelbach and Smith. I find it interesting Dipoto says they're not really platooning anywhere other than first though...where does that leave Smith? He has to be platooned.
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Valencia is a type of player the M's needed. Good.
Valencia is arbitration eligible, and is expected to get OVER $5M... uhhh... possibly $5.5M for a part time hitter versus lefties... How much would Guti have been?
Then add to that Blackburn, a starting pitcher who would have started at AAA at age 23...
And to top it off, it cost us a roster spot, as Blackburn is not and would not have to be put on the 40 man this year.
I hope Danny is worth it.
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Valencia rules out Dae Ho Lee, but does he rule out Napoli too? Does he just rule out a right-handed role player but they'd consider making Napoli the full time starter at first...or does he rule out a role player and Vogelbach is the starter at 1B?
If getting Valencia rules out Napoli at only roughly twice the annual price, I'm not thrilled with the move. If we get both Valencia and Napoli and let 'Bach spend some more time in AAA, then I'm onboard.
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Sabre man after watching Napolean sneer at the world while his teammates were trying to keep the Cubs up and going, I don't want him at half Valencia's price. Napoli has a short guy attitude known as me-me-me.
While we don't knoe if he even won the clubhouse fight with Billy Butler in Oakland, we do know he is a free agent after this year, and he'll get over $5 mil this year.
Another youth move by DePoet?
No, another flexiblility move for a multi-platooner.
Don't rule out the trade of Smith, especially if the M's need a SP (if they trade Tie One On or whatever is in the Karns package), and decide to go after a big name OF. That leaves SS as their only other area of need as they seem in a good spot to pick up a couple relievers.
In this market, Mr. Walker is in the forefront of a chip with a big name (yeah, MC Clutch).
Seems like Pearce is headed for Toronto, and the M's will not get in a bidding war for him. So I'm all in on Villar as others suggested in here last week.
And after all the press in the last week, there is little chance the M's will press the budget to sign Otani, this year or next.
But when I add up to 25, suddenly O'Tamale is close to the ledge unless they can trade Marte.
Still expect a big deal BEFORE the winter meetings open, but Valencia can be fitted into the puzzle.
And I weep for the loss of the smile of Mr. Lee.
zoom
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Return fro 4 days of chasing elk and I find this trade. Way more productive than my past four days, BTW. Thie is a great get. Multi-position, not terrible vs. RHP (well, last year, anyway. In fact the last two years he's split .881 and .742 vR. Dipoto is betting on a early thirties learning jump, vR) and cheap. Valencia, if he's a .750 vR hitter, is way more nice than Smith. Not even in the same ballpark. Will be intersting to see if Smith's signing was just DiPoto securing trade fodder, as some of us speculated.
I love the get.
I wish the elk loved me.
Moe
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Great pickup. Gives you a lot of flexibility this offseason.
Ideally you'd platoon, but Valencia has been good enough the last couple years vs RHPs that he can start.
If Vogelbach makes progress, hes the naturally platoon partner at 1b. If not, Valencia can start all year and hit lower vs RHPs.
For me, this solves 1B. Not sexy, but a very nice pickup and good fit for the roster.
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In '15, Vogs OPS'ed .769 vR with a .403 OBP. In '16 at AAA (with the cup of Safeco coffee: 1 vL PA) he OPS'ed .791 vL with a .356 OBP.
It isn't yet established that Vogs needs a platoon partner. He won't hit lefties for a big average but he will walk enough and pop enougn to survive vs. them. Eventually he's a fulltime player. Smith is never going to be. We need the platoon in RF more than at 1B.
Valencia gives you the ability to sit Seager vs. some lefties and still be potent at 3B. For 10 starts a year or less at 3B, his glove won't kill you.
A great get.
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“I don’t know that I would really define that we are platooning anywhere other than first base,” he said. “The way we are looking at the rest of the club, there is more likely to be everyday roles around the club. There’s a likelihood that Danny will be in the lineup more frequently then we saw last year with some of the right-handed hitting hitters. We are not set on platooning anywhere. We are trying to create more flexibility and solve the platoons, if you will.”
I guess as of now you'd have Cruz in RF against LHP and DH Vogelbach with Valencia at 1B. Honestly, I'll be surprised if Smith is a Mariner when it's all said and done.
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Three or four comments got trapped in the spam filter so sorry I'm late getting them approved. FWIW the next coupla threads will probably be Echo Boxes (Boces?) - Jeff
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I like your interpretation here, Bahm. And I've been thnking along your Smith lines for a while.
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I think so, yeah. Historically hasn't hit for average or power vs lefties and really no assets (defense or foot speed) either than the bat.
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I wouldn't be surprised if the M's sign Jon Jay (as rumored) and then trade Smith. Jay has very low splits, so would be much more everyday player, plus he has leadoff and #2 hitter success. Add Brett Cecil, and the off-season is just about done. If they can get Cozart, he and Jay would make a #1-#2 pair for the heart of Cano-Cruz-Seager-Valencia/Vogelbach to move along and drive in.
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I agree that adding Jay, Cozart and Cecil gets the basics done... but then why would Mathers and others talk about the payroll being at least $150M, if not more?
The roster as you say would be well under $150M.
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Then they have enough to sign Jason Hammel, if he wants to come home. Which makes Karns and/or Miranda available with prospects to try to get Marcel Ozuna! Getting the basics done, though, is the place to start.
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...of acquiring Ozuna (and of you, too) .845 for his career vL. Yowza!
Alas, he isn't the guy you bat at the top of the lineup. Darn.
To tell you the truth, as currently structured you should leadoff either Gamel or Vogelbach vR. Martin's .315 OBP vR doesn't get it done.
vL? We ain't got one of those....unless it is Gamel or Vogelbach.
Vogs at leadoff would be a weird lumbering sight, but he's likely our best OBP guy who isn't batting in the middle of the order.
Dexter Fowler in and Smith out makes all things well.
Fowler is likely a $50-$60M guy. 4 years, or 3 with mutual options.
I'm just not seeing us go there, really, as much as I would love it. WE're not sniffing around the Espinosa market either, it seems.
Hmmm.....What is up DiPoto's sleeve?