Seattle Sports Insider

James on LHP/RHP Platoon Splits

Theory and praxis, Dept.

Posted by

8/23/16

Bill James Online is still only $3 per month. Right now there is a great discussion going on platoon hitters. An excerpt:

To say that it is caused by the asymmetry of the mechanics. . I don't think that's EXACTLY right unless it is interpreted in vague terms. It is caused by the break of the pitch and the line of vision of the hitter. A right-hander's pitch normally breaks away from a right-handed batter and in to a left-hander. It is just a little bit easier to hit a pitch which is moving toward you than it is to hit a pitch which is moving away from you, but in the high-expectations business of hitting a baseball, that little advantage seems must larger. Also. . .well, a person waiting for a taxi will not normally stand with his feet both on the curb; he will normally turn his body at a right angle from the street so that he can see the taxis coming. Having both feet up against the street and craning your head to the right is a more awkward position. The hitter, to hit the ball, HAS to stand in the more awkward position, and thus is less able to see the pitch, but has a better look at the pitch if it is from an opposite-side pitcher.

That's a great analogy, standing at the curb for a cab. Changes the way I look at hitting.

....

James believes:

For 99.9% of hitters, there's no platoon "skill" besides the normal one in baseball
The better the hitter is, the wider his natural split tends to be
Almost all of the platoon split occurs on HR, BB, and K (the "Three True Outcomes")
None of this applies from a pitcher's point of view. Sidearmers like Cishek, e.g., will have larger platoon splits as a trend.

This last point really has had me thinking the last week.

....

As pertains to the Mariners ... is Adam Lind one of the 0.01%? Or is he just a huge TTO player? Or is he going to hit lefties well from now on, to even out the luck? Or is James mistaken on this point? (Alternatively, what is the Think Tank feeling about Adam Lind generally right now?)

It is worth MENTIONING that Bill James, the greatest baseball mind who ever lived, would expect Adam Lind to hit lefties normally, starting tomorrow.

....

It would be great to go through each of the M's lefty hitters (and maybe a few righty hitters) to assess them from this paradigm. Maybe Keith, who is very interested in platoon splits, or SABRMatt, who is very interested in using objective numbers (past results) to comment on ballplayers, will follow on.

BABVA,

Dr D

Blog:

Sabermetrics

Tags:

Adam Lind

Comments

Arrrrgh

Just did a long post about historically good hitters who almost all had a 10-15% platoon advantage. Then it was erased somehow. Arrrrgggh.

Mays, Aaron, Dick Allen, Piazza all had about 100 pt OPS differences.

McCovey and Boog Powell were about 140 pts. Thome was 300 pts. Junior was 90 pts. Reggie Jackson was about 100 pts.

Edgar was only 55 pts and Billy Williams had a 100 pt reverse split.

I picked them all at random and haven't left anybody out. That was the entire list of historic guys I looked up. Surely some people run nearly zero split difference. Edgar wasn't at zero...but had a reduced platoon advantage. Billy Williams was just weird. A mashing, RH hitting Aoki.

But if some of the best hitters ever (and a bunch of those guys are in the Hall) show split differences why should anybody think it isn't "real?" If you're going to say that 100 pts appears to be the normal split difference that is fine....but some guys clearly aren't normal. Lind hits LHP at a career .589 rate. Brendan Ryan hit lefties at a whopping .636 number (he was 40 pts worse against RHP). When you run Lind out to 1B vs. lefties, you're essentially putting Brendan Ryan there, sans all the glovey things he did.

Now why wouldn't you platoon in such a situation, given a partner for Lind (260 pt split difference)? Lind has 1000+ PA's vs. LHP. He hasn't been "unlucky" vs. them. He's just not very good.

For some people the split difference is negligible. For some it doesn't make much difference. Hey, Willie Mays laid waste to RHP's, too. The Giants didn't carry a 4th OF who hit RHP better than Willie. But for many MLB players there is a real difference, one that counts. All things being equal, if you can platoon them to good effect then do it.

It's harder to do it with a Seager (108 pts better vs RHP...but still at .711 vs. LHP) because he brings a glove premium, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher.

A Lind doesn't really do that. Nor does a Seth Smith (230 pt difference).

Every team carries a 4th OF...if they give you a split advantage you SHOULD use them. Few teams, for example, carry (specifically) a 2nd 3B (although the Mets in '69 largely used a 3B Platoon: 1B, too).

Differences exist...and some guys have them that are beyond the norm. It just is.

Keith

Questions for the denizens

1) Does Vogelbach replace Lind next year?

2) IF so, do you believe he needs a regular platoon partner?

For Vogue

1 is "I certainly hope so"

2 I think would be best to have the option to do so without carrying a 2nd 1 bagger. Cruz getting play at 1b opens the DH spot for the hot bat or any guy who could use a breather. If he's not the starting RF all over again. O'Malley is getting time at 1B now, providing that option from utility, even if it's not the slugger envisioned. I personally think planning for 5 outfielders is smarter than planning for 2 1B men (when you already have Cruz).

Lee

And what do you do with Dae Ho Lee? He's been very good and very, very bad for stretches this season. Bring both Lee and Vogelbach to camp and see who wins the job? Let Lee go and bring in someone else to compete for the job? I would hate to just annoint the prospect. That tactic hasn't worked out well for the M's.

Lee?

And what do you do with Dae Ho Lee? He was very good and very, very bad for stretches of this season.

I would definitely avoid just annointing the rookie as the starter, regardless - hasn't really worked out for the M's very often. Bring Lee and Vogelbach to ST and see who can earn it? Let Lee move on and bring in someone else to compete for the job?

Be nice if Cruz could give you 40 starts at 1B a year...

My questions too

Maybe Mo Dawg will chime in here, or in the dedicated thread...

Hmmmm

For the last two seasons (MiLB), Vogelbach has run a 130 and 100 pt difference. AT 100 pts, unless you have a mashing patoon partner you have to play, it liely doesn't make too much sense, espcially if Vogelbach brings a plus eye. If he's a scraggley gloved 1B....well...then maybe you look to make it happen, with the idea you'll have a 1B glove to bring in late.

Especially with a developmental player

Lind - ugh

O-zone swing rate is an all time high. He seems to be pressing, trying to prove he belongs or something. It's just too bad because he's historically an excellent hitter. After a lifetime with the Jays, he's with his third team in three years. Maybe that's just too much change for him. I'd just hand him the job full time for the rest of the month (sans the upcoming date with Sale) and just see if he can get comfortable. After that, if he's still bad, we've got other options currently in Tacoma.

Such a shame.

Lind is aging out.

All of his sabe trends say he is a tick slower with the bat...more lunging at out of zone pitches means he has had less time to judge spin and location, more pop-ups and grounders say he is not squaring it up as well because his sense of location is compromised. More swinging strikes, ditto. Lind is done as a prime time hitter.

The problem

the current problem is that we have to use O'Malley at 1B if we're going to platoon for Lind between now and the 1st. I love O'Malley, but I love him less at 1B. I haven't looked at projected starters to know how many guys we will face who are lefties but I thought the move yesterday to ship out Romero could have been delayed until today (pen was in decent shape) because we were facing a touhg lefty and Lind is dogmeat vs. lefties right now (well...for a long time). Maybe he had had some career success vs. Sabathia...don't know. But I would have much rather had Romero in there yesterday. Maybe he goes 0-3, too. But he was (IMHO...which isn't much) a better bet than Lind.

If you're going to keep a lind around....you have to have a platoon. We did for a long time. We even did yesterday. We didn't use it. It didn't work out.

That's what the signals look like at this point

Am agreeing with you too much, Matt. Has me pretty nervous

;- )

Possibly the bat slowing a bit, Rick? ...

And the cheating/pressing coming as a reaction? Would be a pretty classic 'transition' season into ineffectiveness if that's the way it worked out.

Sexson disease.

Much has been said about Lind having "bad luck" on balls in play. Remember when Sexson hit .219 on balls in play in 2006 and we all said it was bad luck and the next year he also hit like .210 on balls in play and his power evaporated? Same thing here. IMHO

I was thinking Lind was too young for that

I figured 32 was still too young for a good hitter to have his bat speed deteriorate so badly, but there it is: Sexson was 32 as well. And yeah, I also see him swing through of some pitches I figure he should be stalking and crushing. I'll bet he leads the league in 1-3 putouts.