Anybody comment on Marcell Ozuna, RF?
we're wide open on this 'un

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Certainly Bat571 is well capable; he's been calling for Elias-Ozuna for weeks.  He quotes the latest chatter, which reinforces Bat's own judgment on the situation:

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"For months now there’s been speculation about the Marlins looking to trade 24-year-old outfielder Marcell Ozuna, whom they demoted to the minors and then kept there far longer than reasonable."
"Crasnick says the Marlins are looking for a young, MLB-ready starting pitcher in exchange for Ozuna, who’s hit .265 with 36 homers and a .727 OPS through 346 career games as a big leaguer and crushed Triple-A during his demotion".
"Ozuna has some flaws, including shaky plate discipline, but he’s a plus defensive corner outfielder with 25-homer power."

[Bat] I hope Dipoto is just trying to see if he can make the trade with #Montgomery rather than Elias. But the things wrong with Ozuna look to me like they're fixable with good leadership.

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Here is last winter's BaseballHQ on Ozuna, after his age-23 season but prior to the 2015 season:

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Mini-breakout for multi-tooled OF. Or was it? Credit hr/f for power spike; all those GBs make it unlikely he'll top 20 HR again without uppercut in swing. What he loses in HR could be made up by SB...if he can get any semblance of a green light. Big holes in swing will keep him a volatile work-in-progress. 

[Then Ozuna last year, in part-time* play, dropped from a 115 OPS+ to a 90 OPS+ amidst all the clubhouse drama.]

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Had Ozuna repeated his 2014 season, you might have argued that he was a poor man's Jayson Heyward ... or maybe not even such a poor version of Heyward.  The 2014 Ozuna:

  • 5.1 runs per 27 outs  (Heyward is at 5.5, 5.6 and climbing)
  • 122 Speed Index (Heyward 100-110)
  • 140 Power Index and expected PX (Heyward 100-120)
  • Very nice glove in RF, actually even legit CF in Ozuna's case
  • We do have to acknowledge that Heyward has considerably fewer holes in his swing (disaster scenario is not possible)

John Dewan has Ozuna going from +14 plays in CF two years ago, to -11 plays last year.  (Either way, you have a terrific RF when you move a CF over to his left 30 yards.)  Sure sounds like a sulking, alienated player to me.

From a roto standpoint, my little yellow sticky note would say -- and it's only after a glance here --

Scenario Performance % chance Remark
HI .265/.325/.475, 30 homers 20% Modest uptick from 1H 2014
MID .260/.310/.425 60%
LO .210, tons of K's, detonates 20% Unusable player (personality, 180 K's)

How far are you away, from --- > seeing a Discount Jayson Heyward opportunity here?  About a Pete Carroll Integration Magic step away.  If you believe that Ozuna merely has to become happy again, you probably believe that Ozuna is 90% of Heyward at 30% of the price.

Or not,

Dr D

photo:  Roger DeWitt, flickr

Blog: 

Comments

1

That's the key!!

If he's a skulking cancer, count me WAY out.

But he can play some (.295-.337-.471 career, vL).  He's a natural partner in CF with our new guy, who can't hit LHP worth a lick.  OK, he's not a GG CF glove, but how many vL cheap .808 CF's are there out there?

And you could stick him out in RF (or LF) and not cringe too much at his .706 career vR.

Of course, you have to give up a decent arm to get him.  

He ain't a Dipoto AB guy, but he could help.  

Interestingly, the vs. Heyward equation breaks down to this:  Vs RHP, Heyward is approximately 20% better (career OPS of .838-.706).  Vs LHP, Ozuna is approximately 20% better (career OPS of .808-.660).

So if Heyward is 20% better 2/3 of the time and Ozuna gets the 20% advantage 1/3 of the time that makes Ozuna just about 90% of the player Heyward is.  Good call, Doc!   Well, not counting two Heyward GG's and a "better" attitude...but Ozuna plays CF, too. And he's pennies on the dollar in terms of dollar cost.

I'm not a big fan of guys who need attitude adjustments at age 25.  Mostly I hate 'em.   But I'll give you this, we have two heavyweight Dominicans (as is Ozuna) and if they can't beat some attitude and professionalism (if that is the issue) into him then it likely can not be done.  Marte can help, too.

I was originally out.  As I've thought about this I'm in.  For the price of Elias (who fits Miami nicely), I'll roll the dice that Cruz/Cano get this guy's attention.

Actually, the natural trade was Elias and Flores.  Miami would have eaten that one up in 5 seconds.  C'est la vie....

But I'm in.  Get me Chen and this guy.

Enjoy:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qv5D5lGb1Wo

Sigh...I must be getting easy in my dotting old age.

Moe

3

What I especially like about Ozuna, and even more especially now that we have Martin in CF, is that you have a guy that can play CF against LH's, which not incidently gives Cruz his innings in RF (albeit only in smaller parks - but that is where the stats-minded manager and bench coach come in). Depending on who is on the bench, that allows another RH hitter to DH, and with Guti in LF, changes a LH-heavy lineup into one that is borderline scary vL as well. To me, that fit is what makes the relatively high K% tolerable.

As to the K% - it's been all over the place during his career, but both B-R and Steamer projections have him at ~21-22% for next year, and he has been below 20% some years. Really not that bad by contemporary standards. Now, turning to another guy who's had the problem - can you imagine if Blash gets rostered when/if Montero departs, and hits like he did during the 2nd half last year (i.e., in the same groove as Guti). That lineup vL could get real scary - bring on C.J., Keuchel, and Hamels!  

4

That's quite a factor.  And it would be for 2-3 years.

Absolutely love this element, of a legit starting RF who can play a legit starting LF to platoon Leonydas.  :: golfclap ::

5

In June/July (before he was sent down...which may have been to control MLB time) Ozuna was 25-114 with 4 BB's and just 1 HR.  He got cold.

Take that away and he was .275-.323, which are both above his career averages.  

If I can get him for Elias, I'll do it.  Crud, I hate giving Boras more money....but this guy can help.  

And I'll ask you this:  If you could get Ozuna for Leonys Martin, would you?  What else would Elias + Martin get you?

Edit: Or Elias + Smith?  Guti then plays when Martin sits vs LHP.  Ozuna-Martin-Kivlehan (add Powell, if you wish, but I like Kivlehan's 20 HR's) might be as good as OF as there is in the game, defensively, mind you.  DiPoto gets his OF, but at the expense of some plate control.

Dipoto has grande huevos if he would pull something like that off!!!

Just one season ago, Ozuma was +1.4 dWAR in CF.  That's sniffing at the neighborhood Martin lives in.  Martin's career vR (with the split advantage) is .703.  Ozuna's (without the split advantage) is .706.  Oh, there's the .573 to .808 vL advantage that Ozuna has, as well.

Hmmmmmmmmmmm?  Can he run the 1.4 dWAR in CF again?

He's durable, too.  Played 153 games in '14 and 156 in '15, including AAA.  

Dang it, Doc....now you've got me into this.

If Dipoto would roll that trade, he would do something approaching Billy Beane audacity.  I would love it.  

So would the offense, if Martin were to go.

It would be absolutely Un-Jack Z.

Do it!

6

Given Miami's problems with infielders, it occurs to my conspiracy-theory side that maybe Sardinas was acquired to package with Elias as a utility-type-late-inning-defense infielder for the NL Marlins, who can afford the roster spot. Actually, that makes more sense than the Ms wanting him in front of Taylor and O'Malley.

7

I haven't cosigned Ozuna at all.  Just munching popcorn while Bat gives us the downlow.  But, man, the OF permutations you get from an Ozuna-class CF option.  Eye opener.

Elias + Smith?  Guess you ARE into it :- )

8

Man, is that the word I love here.  Ozuna = permutations.  

More so, if Guti is the platoon (sort of) for Martin.

9

One thing about Ozuna's reported attitude issues - they happen to be caught up in the war between Loria and Boras, who happens to be Ozuna's agent, but also the agent for Jose Fernandez, as well as Matt Harvey and Steven Strasburg. Boras has increasingly become involved in player-use issues, not just compensation. Loria seems to have taken upon himself the fight against this. When he says he can't stand Marcell Ozuna, it's probably because when he tried to keep Ozuna in the minors to reduce his MLB service time, Boras publicly made an issue of it. Boras is also apparently behind the analysis of Miami revenue v. payroll and other subjects Loria doesn't want in public.

Loria is a selfish, egotistical, one-way, check-valve, diode SOB. There's really no other way to say it. (So is Boras, for that matter). The MLB system is built to keep players, especially young players, insecure. What would be the effect of taking a young, insecure player from a Dominican background out of a situation where it is published in the national press that his boss "can't stand him"  into a situation where his playing time will be based on his performance?

The feed pump watch on steam-powered ships, even nuclear ones, is a lousy watchstation. It's hot (120) humid (98%+) and down in the lowest levels of the ship. If the ouside water temperature is 80, and the outside air temperature (which is your ventilation source) is 100, as it is in the spring and summer in the Persian Gulf, it's a nasty place. But it has to be manned, and if the feed pumps trip off at the wrong time, for whatever reason, it is imperative to restore feed flow to the boilers FAST. I found that timing the guys on restoring feed during drills before deployment was useful. At least I could say to the guy I put on the watch - "look, you're down here because I can depend on you - you're the best at this" rather than let him think "I'm down here because they hate me!"

I believe it can be similar on a baseball team - objective criteria, even if not in your favor, are easier to swallow than subjective ones. If you're insecure anyway, knowing that your playing time is being determined by your performance, and not by notes from the owner's box, should be a great help to your attitude. Then add support from personalities like Cano, Cruz, Guti, Felix,..... I think the problem is fixable.

11

The whole dynamic in Miami is fascinating to watch in an OJ-on-the-freeway kind of way. Loria, via his son-in-law Samson, says Boras will have no say in Jose Fernandez' use. Fernandez says that, as his authorized representative to management, Boras will be involved. Standoff time!

Dave Dombrowski has followed Pat Gillick with the reasoning -"If it takes 5 decent prospects to end up with one MLBtm player, then trading 3 good ones for a proven Major Leaguer is a no-lose deal. Even if I trade the good one, I'm even! -and I've got two more to trade!" Now Dombrowski has a loaded (by reputation) farm system to deal from and needs a front line pitcher.

Whadda ya think. Fernandez in Boston by Thanksgiving? or Christmas?

12

Posted on this earlier but wasn't signed in. Would really love this guy as a RF/CF option. Really like vs LH with Guti, Ozuna, and Cruz OF. Totally crushing lineup and platoon mismatch. Think that the DR bosses Cano & Cruz will keep him in line. Could Edgar eek out a 5-10% increase in BB%, SO%, BA%, and OPS%. DiPo prob doesnt like the OBA but I hope he pulls the trigger on this one....   

14

From his latest FanGraphs chat:

9:07
Comment From Archie
After basically trashing they guy, what can the Marlins realistically expect for Ozuna? Any teams in particular make sense?
9:08
Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — that leaked recording turned out to be a hoax, right? But it’s not like it didn’t still capture how the Marlins apparently feel about the guy
9:09
Jeff Sullivan: But realistically, the market isn’t determined by how the Marlins feel — it’s determined by how everybody else feels, and Ozuna’s a powerful 25-year-old with a bunch of team control left and a big age-23 season
9:10
Jeff Sullivan: *Most* teams in baseball would make sense here. Affordable, long-term piece with projection left? No one wouldn’t be interested, save for teams with full outfields. The Marlins should be able to pry a big-league-ready player or two
15

Bingo...all over MLBTR. M's kicking tires on Ozuna. Yes! I'm liking our new GM. This guy never rests. And moves pieces around like nobody's business.

They all seem to have a consistent theme though. Like a plan. I'm diggin it. Elias + pieces and I'm estatic. This guy will rake in RF/CF. Young, athletic will upside OF. Kinda like a Guti 2.0. Sign me up.  

16

That is a really novel way to look at it.  I should do a comp there.  Actually very similar ideas from a Safeco point of view.

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