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this is some kind of article! So good.
The Boone, The Edgar, and the Montero (in Safeco)
Although Lloyd probably wouldn't go for a bat flip just yet
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When we last left our hero -- our hero being Dr. Detecto, obviously -- he was exulting over Jesus Montero's promotion to the giddy heights of #5 in the batting order. Behind 2 Seager, 3 Cruz and 4 Cano. The only reason Montero wasn't hitting in Ruth or Gehrig's slot was because we have Ruth and Gehrig.
(Nelson Cruz is going to become the only Mariner to hit 40 homers, except Junior (!), ARod (!), and Buhner-in-the-Kingdome. Also, Cruz leads the AL in base hits, like Ichiro or something. Also, Cruz' OPS+ is 176. Also, Cruz' ability to trump Safeco makes him worth 2x double bonus pinball points. Also, there was exactly one blog that wanted Nelson Cruz, and Lookout Landing ain't it.)
Anyway: Montero stepped up against Cole Hamels (!) and whistled a base hit into right field. Dat's just a ting o byootee ... you got the LH ace, you got a RH masher, and you get a volley back over against the southpaw's arm side. Looks like Marshawn cutting inside at a Cardinal defender. The thought occurred to Dr. D -- yes, it did -- if only you mooks could hear him do radio. That wasn't a single; it was a signature Jesus Montero base hit, a ball against which there is no defense, the Alka-Seltzer solution against the acid reflux of stacked shift defenses. And we'd a said it on the fly, Rick. He says modestly.
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We went down to stand behind home plate for the bottom of the 8th and ... on our way out I told Cindy, "hang on. I wanna see Montero hit once more." He hit another screaming meemie the other way, this one loowww and deeeeeep into the right-center gap. It was past the CF before he could get out of his crouch and rolled up against the wall. I think Montero was safe at second on a headfirst slide.
And Dr. D blinked, something weird straining to surface through the mush of his addled but agile mind. What was weird about that play right there?
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Maybe you already had it. Dr. D sure didn't. He suddenly felt very stoopid.
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What was weird about that double?
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The thing is, Jesus Montero gets on top of the ball the other way. He does it easily. Montero crushes pitches, all kinds of pitches, low on a line to RF just as adeptly as (say) Austin Jackson lines the ball to his PULL field.
If you just joined us, it's just about impossible to stay on top of the ball to your off field. This is because the swing is uppercut, and when it's farther out in front (to LF for a right hander) THAT is when your swing is geared to line the ball. On a reaction swing to RF your bat is necessarily much lower relative to the ball. This is not a choice, any more than your eyeroll is a choice when Dr. D refers to himself in the third person as though he were Bo Jackson or King Henry VIII or, more to the point, Gollum.
Take Kyle Seager, who before $$$$$$$ FA was our only good hitter. How often do you see him go "Oh, cool. Here's a nice jam pitch on my thigh. I think I'll line it on three hops into the oppo power alley."
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Don't try this at home, Dept.
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The other two right hand hitters the M's have ever had, who could get on top of the ball for power the other way, were Bret Boone for a few years and The Edgar for every year. Those were also the two right hand hitters the M's have ever had who loved Safeco Field.
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Full disclosure Dept. There are certain baseball templates that Dr. D is madly in love with. One is the Mike Piazza school of "let the ball get real deep and then crush it the other way." Such hitters have way more time to decide; hitting doubles the other way is a cheat code (SENORDOBLE). True, Dr. D's love for this template can embarrass him in Matt Tuiososopo situations. But Mr. Montero is rather far down the pike compared to Tui.
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Oh yeah forgot. We have lotsa lurkers who only speak the primitive language of sabermetrics. Okay, Montero's batted ball data before Friday's gigglefest against Cole Hamels & Co:
- Soft hit balls: 9%
- Medium hit balls: 35%
- HARD hit balls: 54%
True, 40-45% will lead the league, so Montero won't stay quite at 54%. But even LrKrBoi29 has some sense of proportion. He can be the judge whether Montero has been unusually hot, or taking swings that are unusual for him, or posting a slash line over his head, etc. The point is, Jesus Montero can flat-out COVER a pitcher's pitch. This is what Zduriencik was talking about when he casually handed Michael Pineda over to his enemies.
And 9% soft hit balls :- ) I'm laughing so hard I'm crying here. Somebody want to track that for us? We bet it will sky to 11% within a month.
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SSI's enthusiasm for Jesus Montero has only gone so far because --- > he's not going to hit more than about 20 homers. And, he's going to turn plenty of doubles into singles. And, if you're a lousy 1B or a good-glove DH, even a slash line of .300/.350/.500 is nothing to cough up $20M for. Well, maybe if you're the Dodgers trading for A-Gone or the Red Sox gushing over Han-Ram.
But! Jesus Montero gets that "mediocre PWR" penalty back if --- > he is a great fit for the park. Which he is. Nelson Cruz was a 120 hitter in Texas where everyone can hit; he was a 140 hitter in Balmer; but he is a 170 hitter* in Safeco, since he does not care where he is. Jesus Montero might cap out at 125 OPS+ some place else, but... that might mean 150 OPS+ here.
I'm willing to find out,
Dr D
Comments
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See Jesus run. Run, Jesus, run.
Did you catch Montero running on that double? He will never be fast, but he has done some kind of job working to improve from one of the slowest baserunners I've ever seen to one who is just a little slow.
It's a cryin' shame Jack and Mac were so slow giving him a real chance this season.
Just like we have a King's Court for Felix, maybe we will need a Resurrection Section for Montero! We don't need no stinkin' Trumbo, we don't need no stinkin' LoMo (despite his surprising two hard-hit balls last night vs. Hamels).
Truly Montero's double to right center in the 8th last night was a thing of quality.
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Edited to add:
I have a much younger relative who was reared by a sociopathic father (briefly a relative of the family). He enlisted in the Army to get away, served and came back scarred. Down on his luck and living as a kind of "emotional prisoner" with his father and a stepmother in Southern California, a few years ago he was at his wits end in life. He very nearly took it. From the Pacific Northwest an intervention intervention was initiated with the help of some strong, solid, determined men at a local church (thank God!), he was enabled to get out of there and he moved to the Pacific Northwest to be near those that truly loved him. Bear with me, there's a point to this story with regard to Montero.
With nowhere to go but up and with the help of a local pastor up here he began to blossom away from his abusive father and near his nurturing mother. In recent years he has proven to be a responsible rock for his mother when in several circumstances she really needed him to be that. Sometimes all a person needs is a chance. And this is where Jesus Montero comes in. Granted he blew many chances earlier in his career. He was a prima dona who thought he should have it all on talent alone. But once Montero faced his demons and determined to change, and once he had demonstrated that change by losing all the weight, humbling himself, and working hard at his craft, the only thing between him and success was a chance.
We can't know for sure exactly what Jack and Mac saw that made them withhold that chance this April. But they seemed to rub his face in his past. Then they jerked him around by calling him up briefly then sending him right back down after one weekend. Maybe they were testing his new-found attitude, I don't know. But they may have cost themselves their own jobs by not giving Jesus a chance out of the chute this season. Things could have gone much differently for this team with a few more runs in April.
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And is practically light on his feet around 1B. Hops over to take short-hoppers on the backhand while lowering his CG. Who are you and what have you done with Jesus Montero?!
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Thanks for sharing the story about your relative. Great use of a second 'chance.' Inspiring.
I agree: the M's seemed to rub Montero's face in his past, as you aptly put it. I'm sure they would say they were just "locking the lesson in" that you have to earn what you get in MLB. From where I stand they lost an awful lot of 2-1 games while making their point.
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Good thing Z and Lloyd reached down through all the confusing AAA hit data and said,"What the heck!" we don't care if he hasn't hit well in the minors, we're bringing him up early and not forcing him to stay in Tacoma too long,
Sigh.....
On Thursday I typed up this long post about my dad's 50 birthday party (he's now 87) and a goat named Blackberry. It got losdt in the bloggy ether. Hang with me, I'll eventually make a point: During the party, my dad's best friend, Art, drove 15 miles to get this goat. Blackberry was eventually dragged it into the house. Seeing a living room filled with 50 people with drinks in their hands, (well 49 of them, my mom didn't drink) Blackberry promptly piddled all over the foyer. Trust me.....goats can pack a lot of water, if you catch my drift.
But what do you know, my dad and Art remained best buddies until Art died a couple of years ago. My mom, despite the Blackberry Incident (as we called it) adored Art until she died.
That said, I wonder what Montero has done in Jack Z.'s foyer? It had to be worse than Blackberry's act....or Art's!
Despite a track record that said he could rip MLB lefties in his sleep, one handed, we kept Montero in Tacomatory....essentially treating him as a Mariner non-grata. Well, until he broke the Safeco door down with frozen-ropes all over the AAA world. And then we still waited for "continuing proof" that Logan Morrison wasn't anything more special that a-dime-a-dozen MLB 1B.
We signed Weeks because we didn't want Montero. We got Trumbo because we didn't like Montero, evidence be damned.
Given the opportunity, we likely would have given a bat to Buhner, rather than Montero.
Eventually, however, even Z/Lloyd couldn't stop the M-Train's arrival at Safeco.
Great thread, Doc.
The Blackberry Incident attempted post didn't get posted because the new site ate it, somehow. I'm not buying the operator error idea. Well, mostly not.
Anyway, that post included this interesting (to me) tid-bit. George Foster, the imposing slugger of the late 70's/early 80's had a lifetime vL line of .283-.349-.513. For you young guys, Doc will vouch for his imposingness. In '77, his MVP year, he slugged .631, hit 52 homers (way before guys juiced) and drove in 149 runs. Well, our guy, Montero, has a .318-.372-.464 vL career line.
SSI'ers, as far as hitting lefties goes, we had George Foster down in Tacoma and basically left him there for 2 years.
Sigh.....Good thing we taught the kid a lesson.
If Billy the Goat is the Cubs' curse....could Blackberry be ours?
Keith
Hey, btw....I discovered this weird fact, too.
Back in '77, during his MVP year, Foster's Reds won 88 games. They finished 10 games behind the Dodgers in the West. They did this despite the fact that they had FOUR HoF'ers performing at the tops of their games: Bench was at .275-.348-.541 w/31 homers. Morgan was .288-.417-.478 w/22 HR's and 117 BB's, Rose (allright, not really in the Hall) was at .311-.377-.432 w/38 2B's, Seaver was 14-3 w/2.34 ERA (he hit 3 HR's, too) in Cincy (7-3 with NY before the trade)!! AND they had Foster. And they had a 1B (Driessen) who hit.300-.375-.468. And they had GG's at SS (Concepcion) and CF (Geronimo) who OPS+'ed in the mid-80's (both won their 4th consecutive GG that year). Oh...AND they had the original Ken Griffey who swatted .318-.399-.467.
Holy snot!! Only 88 wins!!!! 10 games out!!! (Well, go look at the Dodgers' pitching #'s that year!!)
And more BTW: The Reds were only SECOND in the league in runs scored that year. The Schmidt/Luzinski/Hebner Phillies scored more!
Bringing it back home, Luzinski had a Montero-type body...nobody seemed to hold it against him. Heck, he played inthe OF....Philly just let him rip away.
I wonder what ever happened to Blackberry. Ah...he probably spent the last couple of years in Tacomatory with Montero. That'll teach him.......
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Ahh, 1977. Along with 1978 two of my favorite years as a baseball fan. I saw the most live baseball in my life those two years, about twenty games each season in Dodger Stadium. Don't gete me started moe... you...will...live...to...regret...it...
But I definitely agree, those Reds teams were stacked like no others. It was as if EVERY hitter was either a .300 hitter or a .280 hitter with serious power. And they had speed too. And OBP. Their stats were probably held down a bit by having to play 18 games a season against Dodgers pitching. The Phillies were stacked too, but only had to face LA 12 times a year.
Re: Blackberry. Gee, I wonder what the goat ATE?!!!
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And today's fan can't appreciate it, because teams are able to BUY stars -- either to complete their lineup, or to start and finish their entire lineup.
They constructed that lineup of Bench, Rose, Perez, Foster, Morgan*, Griffey etc without a FA market.
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That said, the 1970's Dodgers were also loaded beyond belief. What a decade to be a kid following the Reds or Dodgers, huh? Almost like being a Pete Carroll fan....
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They had 5 starters who climbed the mound a combined 158 times. Each of them threw more than 212 innings, Sutton chucked 240. Their three topr RP's threw a combined 253 innings. Of those 8 guys, the WORST pitcher in the bunch was Rick Rhoden, with a 3.74 ERA (103 ERA+). He was only 16-10. Dodger pitchers threw 1475.1 innings, all but 109 innings were thrown by 8 guys. Rhoden, the ugly step sister that year, was still pretty good. No wonder they won 98 games!
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James could think of SOME points system by which the 1970's Dodgers were in a class by themselves.
I think of Rick Rhoden as comparable to Hisashi Iwakuma in quality. Think of a staff in which 'Kuma was the 'ugly stepsister' on the entire ballclub.
Talk about mega wars between those two historic rosters. Objectively speaking, I'm glad the Dodgers won a couple. Easy to say now .... I probably cared more about the 70's Reds than I do about today's Seahawks or Mariners.
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I laughed out loud. And it looks like Montero can hold a lot of water, too...
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Sorry you lost your typing, man. Don't forget to hit CMD-A and CMD-C before trying to launch!
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The 1970's Reds did indeed piddle away several pennants (thanks for finding me the right euphemism!). Bill James used to rage against Sparky Anderson for costing his teams a good 15 wins per season ... at that time he would hype a statement in order to make it clear.
The 1969-77 Reds went to the playoffs 5 times in 9 years, but any Yankee dynasty woulda made it 8 or 9 times. Especially in the Berra (Bench) years.
The 1969 Reds, e.g., had BENCH. ROSE. MAY. PEREZ. Alex Johnson. Bobby Tolan. 6 of their 8 position players were legitimate stars. They had a Big Three in the rotation, at the time when rotations had 4 men. They finished 3rd in their division.
The 1974 Reds had the whole shebang, closest thing you'll get to 8-for-8 HOF'ers, a Big Three and two closers. Watched the PLAYOFFS (not World Series) on TV.
And like that. People don't realize that the 1970's Reds were underachievers.
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I'm rooting for the guy but I have no problem with the org making him prove emphatically that he's turned things around before giving him a big league job. Less than 12 months ago, he was going into the stands after a scout fat-pranked him.
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I don't have a problem with the M's setting a very high bar for Montero to get the promotion. Getting new habits to stick is very challenging for me, I could see how remaining humble and focused would be easier to groove in at AAA than MLB. Afterall, Montero had years of bad behavior prior to his few months of good.
On the other side, the whole ice cream sandwich incident is a profound indictment of the M's organization. There is a huge gulf between tough love and high expectation on one side versus hazing and spite on the other. If you cannot take the high ground when a young man fails to meet the enormously high standards of ML baseball, you do not deserve a position of power with the M's.
With the Seahawks they are committed to your success until they feel someone is a better, or at least a cheaper, bet. It is a harsh reality in Renton, but the standards of performance are communicated with clarity and they go the extra mile to help people succeed.
With the M's, they cut you down, but never cut bait. Bah humbug.
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/cosign
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I'm sure there are structural differences between the NFL and MLB that prevent a baseball organzation from operating the exact same way. BUT. I'm with you, and think the Mariners (and every other team) would do well to put in place clear lines of evaluation that apply the same to all. Competition, always. And a commitment to teaching even at the pro level. One of the best parts about Caroll's system is having a coaching staff that revolves around TEACHING. Think an entire staff of Edgars, at every poisition. That's huge.