So the St. Lewis Cardinals have struck the first resounding blow of the offseason, by signing Miles Mikolas to a 2 year, $15.5mil deal. At that price, he'd have to produce just two WAR over the course of the deal to be 'worth it' to the redbirds as a FA acquisition. Anyone here think he'll fail to do that?
The most recent and compelling comp for Mikolas' return to MLB after a stint in NPB is Colby Lewis, who the Rangers signed for a pittance a few years back and who immediately stepped in an pitched like a #2/#3 SP for Texas with 8.8 Fangraphs WAR in his first three years (2010-2012) back. He cost them $1.8mil, $3.0mil, and $3.2mil for those performances. Meaning they paid something like $1mil/win. Pretty shrewd.
Mikolas doesn't represent that level of savings. But after pitching 424 1/3 innings with a 2.18 ERA in Japan the past two seasons, with a profile strikingly similar to Lewis' own (superb command, strong-but-not-otherworldly K's, tons of innings, etc..), he's as close to a Sure Thing as you're going to find on the FA market. And at 29 years old, he's got the potential to be a MOR arm for another half decade. I'd be high-fiving all over the place if I was in St. Lewis right now (and, honestly, I'd *probably* rather have Mikolas than Leake on their respective contracts...though it's close and I'm not disappointed with Leake in the least--it just goes to show how well-run the Cardinals really are that they can replace someone like Leake without missing a beat or losing any draft capital. Pretty shrewd.)
A slew of minor pitching deals have also been announced, which suggests the market's beginning to heat up after Ohtani told 3/4 of MLB to take a hike. Think there might be a connection buried in there somewhere? I'm leaning 'yes,' but my pattern recognition skills aren't what they used to be...
I still think Darvish is a top priority for the M's this offseason, especially if they can nab Ohtani. You bank those two arms, and suddenly the M's have a surplus of pitching available to trade away if they so choose. I hear Miami's holding a fire sale and has a bunch of super interesting players available. Everyone knows about Stanton, and just about everyone knows about Yelich and Ozuna, but my favorite piece in that pile might be Dee Gordon. Bear with me.
Robinson Cano's fine as a 2B. Better than fine, in fact--he's great! But he's also 35 years old, and the primary value he represents is that he's got a MOTO bat at a MIF position. The only way you leverage that value is by having good production at the CIF spots--otherwise you're just wasting half of his value. So if you're going to have some 80 OPS+ scrub at 1B and Robbie at 2B, why not switch things up and put Robbie over to 1B and bring in a guy who's averaged 3.4 WAR at 2B over the last four years, who is one of the best baserunners in the game (60 SB last year, right in line with his last four years' rate, and 9.4 BsR--good for 4th in the league, eight slots above Jarrdon Dyson), and who is over half a decade younger than Robbie? All things considered, I'd rather have Santana manning 1B on a 3-4 year deal, but Cano's almost certainly going to end up at 1B sometime in the next couple of years. Jamming the roster with 1B/DH types causes trouble--good trouble if they can all hit, obviously, but trouble nonetheless--so if we're asking ourselves 'Gordon vs. Santana,' I think it's closer than it first appears.
The obvious reason not to get Gordon would be Robbie's positional value generated while he's holding down 2B. But, again, if you're NOT going to get an average-or-better 1B to pair with him, you're squandering most of the value Robinson Cano brings to the club by wearing a 2B glove. So if you're committed to his bat anyway, and your option is to sign someone like Eric Hosmer for $20mil/year, Carlos Santana for $15mil/year, or Yonder Alonso for $12mil/year, there's an opportunity to get ahead of the curve by sliding Robbie over now while acquiring one of the better 2B in the league who's in the middle of his prime. Gordon's owed about $13mil/year for the next three years, and if he continues to produce at the same rate as the last four years then he's a bargain AND he fills a need as a legitimate, playoff-contender-caliber leadoff hitter (the best the M's would have had since Ichiro, I might add...)
I'm not saying Gordon to the 2017-2018 M's is a smart move. In isolation, it isn't. But isolation assumes a reasonable chance that the club would be able to find a warm body to play 1B and hit somewhere other than the bottom third of the order. The M's have failed to do that for quite some time, so maybe it's time to bite the bullet and make a move that improves things immediately. I like Robbie's chances to out-hit Yonder Alonso for the next 3-4 years, don't you? If so...
Also, it looks like Leonys Martin signed with the Motor City Kitties for $1.75mil. Things are starting to heat up--and while we've got to get a few dishes cooking, we need to be careful not to get burned in the process.
Updated available international slot money for Ohtani chase after Dee Gordon trade:
Mariners $3.557M
Rangers $3.535M
Angels $2.315M
Cubs $300,000*
Giants $300,000*
Dodgers $300,000*
Padres $300,000*
*-These teams capped at $300K and can't exceed that total.
...about how desperately the Mariners want Ohtani that they've scrambled this hard to get to the top of that leaderboard, considering how far back they were a few weeks ago.
of an organization going out and securing the most possible money for his services--and then accepting a dollar (or whatever the minimum is) to sign. "You demonstrated your sincerity to me, now I'm going to do the same. Let's go win together."
I doubt the money is that important to him (I saw $20mil/year in endorsements bandied about in conversations about Ohtani) but the GESTURE made by going through all these contortions to ACQUIRE that money...no way that doesn't tip the scales at least a bit.
The one thing that's got me nervous is that the Cubs and Rangers have brass that have been recruiting this guy since he was a teen. The Padres, too, have some unique Japanese connections in their front office and clubhouse. It's really going to come down to what Ohtani wanted at the outset of this process. I doubt all the media circus has been his idea--I think he pretty much knew where he wanted to go before things got underway.
...you buy all the cards you can into the jacpot game.
...in hold 'em, you stay in for the river while trying to watch your competitors fold.
We saw a list of the questions BabeRuth-san asked teams to respond to.
But all the last minute speculation seems to be that no one knows what is behind or within those queries.
You guyz got it nailed down that the pool money puts them at the top of the heap in terms of availability ... but did any other team try to secure that money from the Marlins?
If so, how much were they willing to offer?
This entire process is a show of respect on the M's part ... we will remodel the team to accomodate a championship, which you are the cornerstone of.
Cano to 1B? (maybe, whenever, it was announced Gamel will be tried at 1B in spring training to alternate with Healy.
When Cano goes to 1B, Gordon can move to 2nd.
Dyson be gone for sure, Heredia might be moved, but no way will they ship Haniger unless it is for a near TOR starter.
We have the flexibility to fit your flexibility and will respect your wishes .... but ....
...we are giving up part of our future so you can be that future.
Nobody seems to know the buts.
....but the M's are gonna get their guy.
DePoet opened the conversation on the migration by saying the M's had been working on it for a year, and has continued to toss bait over the past two weeks.
...and handing out bingo cards to get over the river ...
...."all in" just keeps morphing into more.
game time.
zoom
Weird: When you acquire $14mx3 in salary to play a guy out of position, giving up your #2 prospect, just so you can get a $1m rebate from the other guy.
Sounds like NBA salary cap shenanigans.
Great line, moe. Would be interesting to see the average value of an IFA in terms of WAR produced. Am guessing (just speculating here) that they've got a DRASTICALLY better return-on-investment than, say, players acquired through the draft.
Would be VERY interesting to see the average WAR-based value for IFA's...might end up that $1mil in IFA bonus money turns into $4-5mil in surplus value based on the player pool's performance. Then again, I could be way off. But if my hunch is correct, coupled with the boom-or-bust nature of minor leaguers in general, that $1mil might just buy you a win or two, should your scouting and development systems be on point.
And that's to say nothing about exceptional cases like Ohtani, who could legitimately provide $4-5mil in surplus value his first MONTH as a big leaguer.