I've tried to take with a grain of salt the various generic "Mariners are interested in Tanaka" headlines, figuring that "Duh! Of course they are! So is everyone else, you idjit! What's next, your breaking news is that the ocean is wet and salty?" I was fairly certain the M's were, however, one of the teams who could actually do something about it payroll-wise, if they would take the deep breath and go for it. The Dodgers payroll is already into the stratosphere and the Yankees have been trying to reduce payroll to get under the luxury tax. I hadn't really given much thought to the Cubbies - it just seemed more of a fit for a Japanese player to either be on a West Coast team or in NY than in the midwest. Stereotyping on my part? I don't know, and I'll have to examine why I think that way.
I do wonder how Tanaka will adapt to the slightly larger ball - how will it affect his splitter if the grip isn't the same? I'm a little concerned about the workload increase that pitching every five days and a longer season will have on him when September rolls around, but if he ends up a Mariner I cross that bridge when we get to it.
Felix is obviously #1. Right now Iwakuma has earned the #2 spot. Tanaka at #3? That would have to be the best #3 in MLB. Paxton at #4 - he's bigger, stronger, and more ready for a full-season workload than #5, Taijuan, who you can skip when days off let you so his innings load won't go up too much. Look at that again.
Felix.
Iwakuma.
Tanaka.
Paxton.
Walker.
Holy strikeout, Batman.
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In Euro football, it's an industry, their wagering on the destinations of popular "free agents." Right now my Gunners are odds-on to land Dimitar Berbatov. If SkyBet had a Tanaka listing, I'm guessing it would look something like the one on Luke Shaw (which see). The M's being at 3:1.
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If you missed it, here's a Jan. 2 MLBTR shouting out the Seattle Mariners as front-runners, moshing off Jayson Stark as well as a separate ESPN Insider column:
The market's most intriguing name, Masahiro Tanaka, will undoubtedly continue to generate ample speculation, rumors, and discussion until he chooses a destination. Here are today's notes on the former Rakuten ace, including multiple accounts that tilt towards a reunion in Seattle with Hisashi Iwakuma, who once fronted the rotation of the Golden Eagles alongside Tanaka:
- Competing executives view the Mariners as a real threat to land Tanaka, tweetsESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The industry perception, says Stark, is that Seattle can make one more big splash to accompany its signing of Robinson Cano.
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And here's a Baseball America column, giving #4 Cubs, #3 Dodgers, #2 Yankees, and #1 Mariners:
The Yankees and Dodgers get most of the ink when the public speculates about Tanaka, but the Mariners are the favorites to land him. That doesn’t mean they will sign him, but based on conversations with industry officials, Seattle’s resources and the makeup of the team, they are a strong fit.
The Mariners have money to spend. They have a new regional television contract that will pay them $2 billion over 17 years. The Mariners showed off their deep pockets earlier this offseason by signing Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract, outbidding everyone by a wide margin.
... Pitching is also the easiest area for the Mariners to upgrade. They’re set at second, third and shortstop with Cano, Kyle Seager and Brad Miller. Mike Zunino will step in at catcher, while they traded for Logan Morrison and signed Hart this offseason, presumably to shore up one of the two corner outfield spots and spend time at either DH or first base. The position players on the free agent market—especially in the outfield—are all rather unappealing. Nelson Cruz is the best one, but he’ll probably get overpaid (perhaps by Seattle). There isn’t much else.
Other teams have the need for Tanaka and the finances to make it happen. But no team blends it all quite as strongly as the Mariners.
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The Seattle blog-o-sphere has spent a lot of time --- > reading the Mariners' signals to the public. It concludes "there is no evidence" that the Mariners will play strongly for Tanaka-san.
But the Mariners love their aura of 95-loss "mystique" and enjoy being clandestine. We remember a specific Jack Zduriencik quote to this effect: If you wind up with nothing, it looks bad ... if you wind up closing the deal, it's a pleasant surprise for everybody. For sure this is the way they think.
SSI assumes this would be their approach with Tanaka: in "managing fan expectation" they would love to have us expecting nothing, and then wheel out .... Cano. Tanaka. Whatever.
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Rival GM's are in a position to read the Mariners, much better than you and I are. Thursday's news is great news.
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Random Tanaka thought of the day
Watching his power forkball on video, we remember the MLB hitter who came back from Japan and said "Kazuhiro Sasaki, in his prime, that fastball and that splitter, that was the only pitcher I ever faced where I went up there thinking, okay, how many pitches is this going to take."
Tanaka's splitter for sure is a wipeout pitch. Can he get to it? Get ahead in the count such that he can attack with it? ummmmm....
Just for fun, here is a YouTube featuring HIGH fastballs whipsawed against Sasaki-type "thangs" and two-plane sliders.
In the spirit of the K-Pax LHP Velocity chart -- guys with 94 MPH LH fastballs play well in the big league game --
Here are all starting pitchers in the major leagues who feature consistent splitfinger pitches:
- Hisashi Iwakuma
- Ryan Dempster
- Miguel Gonzalez
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Dan Haren
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Samardzija
- Homer Bailey
- Yu Darvish
MLB hitters are too greedy to hit the fastball, and the split fastball best exploits this greed. Power split fastballs, in general, suit MLB like pancakes and syrup. Tanaka-san's splitfinger isn't a splitfinger "in general."
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
...I think we would all have to admit, after a Tanaka signing, that this would be the most successful offseason the Mariners had since 2000/2001. A good manager should be able to wrangle the LoMo/Hart/Smoak/Saunders/Guti/Ackley pile-up and maybe even find PT for Franklin. And it would take a complete moron to screw up THAT rotation. Those of you who are worried about the pen messing up the pitching...I see the concern...but I am coming around on our pen being better than we think. With Pryor, a better-used Furbush, an emerging Farquhar...we have the back-end stuff handled...we just need some more depth.
and that nasty split in the back of the mind - thrown for strikes no less. I'm getting pretty jacked about this guy. He sure reminds me of Iwakuma. Heck, Felix too for that matter.
I'm wondering if Tanaka, as well as some of these other Japanese kids, grew up as Mariner fans with all that exposure. Sure wouldn't hurt if these kids at one time dreamed in their backyards, or wherever Japanese kids toss balls around, of winning 116 games with Ichiro and Sasaki. And if so, now with the new posting rules, they can more easily follow their boyhood dreams.
I can just about see the Japanese kids doing just that. My youngest son grew up wanting to be Junior, but thought his familial pasty white skin wasn't dark enough for the part. His aspirations did well enough through high school ball, but settled on academics through college. Ichiro is one thing, but I can't wait for the videos of Japanese kids imitating Cano or Zunino.
Apparently the Japanese ball is the same size as the MLB ball since a few years ago. Not sure if the stitch height range is exactly the same, so 2-seamers, sliders, and curves could be affected, but the split and 4-seamers should be relatively the same. With Iwakuma around to help, he should step right into throwing the MLB ball effectively.