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Just got my Forecaster. Order yours here -- if you choose the auto-renew, they'll send you one a year, and you can download the .pdf immediately. By the way, I had some problems figuring out how to get my own .pdf downloaded, and their customer service was super great. Lynda Knezovich e-mailed back and forth with me five times, making sure I was squared away. :: golfclap ::
We was gonna hit the sack, but ... what's an Xmas morning without yer Hot Stove e-zine. As you know, we live to serve.
So here are three of the cheeriest things in the Forecaster. Great with java and jinjerbread.
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Justin Smoak
HQ thinks that Justin Smoak is ready to deliver in 2014:
20-50-.238 in 454 AB at SEA. PRO: xPX shows he's ready to take a step up as a power source; solid walk rate.
CON: Sub-par contact rate is not unusual for a power bat, but caps his BA upside. It is possible that he'll never
quite be the hitter SEA expected. Still, with blossoming power, 30-35 HR is a legitimate upside.
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By xPX they are referring to his "Expected Linear Weighted Power Index," which uses hard-hit ball data, and which zoomed from 116 to 152 for him last year. The HQ amigos use simply two variables, "Hard Hit Line Drives" along with "Hard Hit Fly Balls," and then multiply them by a long string of constants to give you a "152" on the scale of 1-100.
This hard-hit ball factor, we grok, the very factor that has had SABRMatt predicting a bustout for Smoak.
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HQ then remarks, okay, Smoak is only going to hit .240 or .250. But he's also going to walk a lot, and that's going to leave him at .240/.340/.500 with 32 homers. For a similar slash line see Bautista, Jose.
I don't say that he's Bautista right now. But he's been sputtering, popping, smoking :- ) and if the engine turns over you've got the lefty Bautista playing a neat 1B.
Zduriencik has firmly established Smoak as the starting 1B, by the way, the FA additions notwithstanding.
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Brad Miller
HQ's main observation is that Miller has a great chance to play well right away, without a painful half season, as Seager also played well from early on:
8-36-.265 with 5 SB in 306 AB at SEA.
Brought career .334/.409/.516 line to his MLB debut and held his own in
SEA lead-off spot. Should reach double-digit HR and SB, and Spd points to more upside if green-lighted.
Growing pains are possible, but live bat with history of patience and 80+% ct% suggest he'll contribute from the get-go.
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I'll /cosign that, based on watching Miller in the batter's box. He does have the ability to square the ball up, even when he does not recognize the pitch. Brad Miller is a "see ball, hit ball" player. And he does keep a tight strike zone, yes.
You know, in Seattle our calibration is off... but there are players who just come to the majors, take their hacks, and hit without needing to know anything. Trout and Harper, obviously, but Kyle Seager and others as well.
On the one hand, Miller's upside is not thrilling. But you have to like his chances to hit 110, 120 OPS+ right away.
Did you know that Miller slugged LHP's to the tune of .474 last year? And that his 2H was better than his 1H?
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Danny Farquhar
Ask not whether your scrub can close for you. Ask whether your scrub is an ELITE closer:
0-3, 4.20 ERA with 16 Sv in 55 IP at SEA.
A younger Jason Grilli? Inherited the SEA closer role when everyone
else stunk. Has the right profile with the big Dom (12.4 per 9 IP - dr d) and mastery of RH batters.
Unlucky S% (strand rate, leading to high ERA - dr d) should regress, and xERA says he can get even better. If Dom sticks, only borderline Ctl keeps him from the top tier of closers.
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HQ's analysis of Farquahar is cursory and a bit off the mark. Cut them some slack; they know Justin Smoak really well, but this indy-league reject is quite unfamiliar to them.
It's pleasant to remember the otherworldly K rates, and I'll cheerfully admit that I hadn't noticed Farquhar's utter devastation of right hand hitters .... whoops! Didn't notice it because it didn't occur. He devastated LEFT hand batters, notably with his shell-shocking 78 MPH change curve that drew 25% swings and misses from lefties.
The only thing that puzzled SSI about Farquhar -- and Carl Willis, too -- was that the dude wouldn't throw his plus-plus curve very much. But, of course, a 90-MPH slider is also rather useful, as is a 94-95 fastball thrown sidearm.
..........
Zduriencik's biggest (public) complaint with Eric Wedge was that he felt the bullpen was badly mismanaged. There's talent out there. Can you imagine Furbush, Pryor, Farquhar and Wilhelmsen in the hands of Tony Larussa?
Happy Xmas,
Jeff