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WHO WON THE TRADE

See Jeff Sullivan's recap.  In essence, the Mariners gave the Cardinals Rayder Ascanio, and the Cards gave back $0.75M in international slot space.  That space is valued at $3-4M, so this trade is a wash.

Then, the Cardinals gave the M's Mike Leake while sharing $17M of his salary.  The M's wind up paying 3x$36M over the years 2018-20.  The big thing is that they get to open their present now, pay a couple mill for the end of 2017.  Dipoto selected his #4-5 starter going forward.

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INNINGS EATER IN DECLINE

Sullivan compiled this chart that averages Leake's fastball over the period 2010-2017.  It used to be 88, then was 90 for a long time.  It threated 92 for a bit and now has slid back to 90.

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This chart makes the variation look wider than perhaps is.  All fastballs thrown within it are "meh."  Leake is not a Yovanni Gallardo, a 4 BB ex-power pitcher with a vanished fastball -4 MPH, and one dubious 87 MPH slider that batters with slider-speed bats tee off on. Mike Leake is a 2.1 BB guy who cuts and moves his fastball, neatly against three other pitches. 

To be sure, Leake as a high-mileage overachiever fights against late-year deterioation, fights against arm fade, as most sub-95 pitchers do.  Taking his last two years' worth of splits (which show good 1H, bad 2H) would edit the stats against Leake.  He has been the same pitcher for about 10 years and his second-half splits have been modest, most due to the fact that he DOES pitch in the second half.  For his career he's got a 2.87 CTL ratio in the first half, 2.73 in the second half.  

At his age, the less he pitches the fresher he'll be, but probably not in any unexpected way.

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WEAPONS

Leake's three true outcomes this year, and for his career, are 6.1 strikeouts, 2.1 walks and 1.1 homers off a 55% groundball ratio.  His pitches, both this year and past years, are:

√ 90 MPH fastball

√ 89 MPH cut fastball  (above two pitches thrown 70% of the time)

√ 81 MPH slider (13%)

√ 84 MPH changeup (10%)

√ Occasional change curve (6)

Leake isn't super tricky - he gets about a mediocre/average number of fishes, 30-32%, and about a mediocre number of swings in the zone.  He's just an average-solid ML pitcher who stays on the mound.

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Let's compare this to another "Mr. Consistency" National League pitcher, Ian Kennedy.  Kennedy is not Leake's separated-at-birth twin; he is Mike Leake if Leake pitched up more in the zone:

Ian Kennedy 7.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks, 1.9 homers on a 37% groundball ratio.  Arsenal

√ 92 MPH fastball

√ 87 MPH cutter (above two pitches thrown 73% of the time

√ 15% slow curve

√ 11% changeup

The template here has several defining characteristics:  AVERAGE fastball with PLUS command, excellent pitchability and poise, and a variety of good-but-not great offspeed pitches.

Other pitchers in this template include:

√ If Leake could excute his own pitches better, he'd be Rick Porcello.

√ This year Alex Cobb has sunk back to about Leake's level.  Cobb uses a bit more stuff and a bit less sequencing.

√ Hisashi Iwakuma is a quite-similar pitcher.  WBC-san has an extra level of control when he's right.

√ I've always been a Bronson Arroyo fan; he makes this game work with a bit less to go on.

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Leake is not and will never be an impact pitcher, but ... GM's are in the bidness of STOPLOSS, too.  It's been weird watching the Mariners pile up 6, 8, 10 very good relievers and then never find a single one who can go five.  Gotta get old after a while.

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YOUR TURN NOW

Mike Leake has a 101 ERA+ this year, a 99 ERA+ for his lifetime, that coming in the NL.  This is his 9th season in the bigs and his minimum IP is 167, other than his rookie year.  You might take a look at the playoff teams and list the teams that have a pitcher comparable to this one in their rotation.

BABVA,

Dr D