James Paxton Scouting Report 9.6.13 - the Bad
Curve was spotty, change was a tragedy

Q.  And the Rays are (with the Red Sox) the best anti-LHP lineup in baseball.  What could bad about 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K?  

A.  Even with it being the Rays -- Longoria, Myers, etc -- Paxton should be getting more than 3 K's and more than 8 swings and misses.

The reason is, he is pitching with pretty much just his fastball.  That's got to be why in AAA he had "only" 130 K in 150 innings, or whatever it was.  Just like with the young Randy Johnson -- people basically just focus on his fastball.  That fastball is sooooo good that he's still an average pitcher, walking people and giving up "cheat" hits.

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Q.  Where are his curve and change?

A.  The changeup wasn't fit for single-A.   He only threw six, five of them fortunately high and outside, where the parched hitters could not slake their thirst.. ... it was 90 MPH, didn't drop any more than his fastball.  It was basically a fastball with three feet off it, and it was telegraphed.

Telegraphed to the runners, too.   From the CF camera you can see, as if it were on the Jumb-O-Tron, Paxton's grip on the fastball, knuckle curve, and change.  I didn't notice the runners signalling it in, though.

........

The knuckle curve was very wild early in the game.... about the 5th, 6th inning he got the feel, and the AB's were hilarious to watch at that point.  He wound up throwing 14-of-23 curves for strikes and, when he got it going, it was deadly.

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Q.  Does he throw a cut fastball?

A.  The broadcast crew says that Paxton has a cutter, inspired by Taijuan Walker's.  Judging by this chart (catcher's POV), he might have thrown 6-8 of them, the ones that are close to +/- 0" horizontal movement:

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But if he does throw a cutter, it is 95-98 MPH, and that's un-possible.  

The Husky football team used to have 400, 450, and 500 clubs at the bench press station... the M's kids seem to have started a Cutter Club.  Whatever Paxton calls it, he threw half-a-dozen Randy Johnson fastballs that cut in on RH batters.

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Q.  That all that's bad?  Doesn't seem like much soup, even off of three oysters... I'm still wondering how he ran a 4+ ERA in the minors.
 
A.  Well, hang on.  We gotta split out "Coherency" and his delivery.
 
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