Now I can go to sleep.
I missed Walkers debut, but was more interested in reading this breakdown after the game ended. There hasn't been much talking up of Paxton in months and the pitcher I saw deserved some. He's smooth, quick delivery, light on his feet, has an insane plane, upper 90's from the left side, a bit of wild effectiveness though not as wild as early Randy. That he could dominate a very good (ultimate challenge? ) lineup like that while really only having fastballs working the first 2 times through the lineup was...considering all those things I guess it makes sense. His curve looked pretty good when it broke right and was near the plate, but those 2 things obviously need work. 2 really good looking debuts in such a short time.
We need a SP this offseason, why? Paxton making a case, Walker, Erasmo... Hultzen fighting to get in with fallbacks that have some talent as well. Bats all via FA? Not looking forward to losing any of these pitchers anyway.
ah, there's a couple weeks left that should include Paxton throughout. He'll surely have some bad days, which could be truly horrible but am I thinking too much of young Randy? I recall having composure issues as well. James began shredding the Rays in his mlb debut about 8 hours after hearing his grandpa died. Randy was 5 years older when he began his 3 year run of leading the league in BB and James wasn't close to that wild lastnight. We'll see. Not saying he's better than Randy, just very familiar with Randy and they're similar enough. Randy really should go in with 2 caps, btw.
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Q. Again ... how could he run a 4.45 ERA in the PCL?
A. How could Randy Johnson go 7-9, 4.40 at age 25? With a 104/70 control ratio? Or how could these young lefty flamethrowers have high ERA's?
- Mark Mulder - 9-10, 5.44 as a rookie, 88/69 strikeout to walk (control) ratio in 154 IP
- Jon Lester - 4.76 ERA as rook, 60:43 CTL ... 4.57 ERA, 50:31 CTL the next year
- Gio Gonzalez - 7.68 ERA and 5.75 ERA his first two years
- Clayton Kershaw - 4.26 ERA with a 100/52 CTL
- Sandy Koufax - horrible for 3-5 years
- etc etc etc
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Q. But that's in the bigs. Paxton had a 4.45 ERA in the minors.
A. Any of those lefties could walk people in the minors or majors.
Randy Johnson had a control ratio of 168/129 his last two years in the minors.
Gio Gonzalez had a 4+ ERA in the minors going, and Billy Beane called him up. Mark Mulder also had a 4+ ERA going in the minors when he got called up. That's because Billy Beane knows that a wild lefty might as well learn the league while he's learning his foot plant and release point. When he jells physically, he might as well have the info downloaded!
ERA is not the point on wild young lefties. They walk five guys and hit the showers, or they don't walk guys and they lock you down. Why would you use ERA to measure that? Measure number of good starts against number of bad starts.
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Q. OK, fine. How many good starts and bad starts has Paxton been having.
A. He had a great run in July, then five wild starts in a row ... then two good ones again, and Zduriencik called him up.
In a vacuum (slap me silly, I love that Gordon Gross thematic appeal) there wasn't much reason to think that this was the time to call him up. But watching his delivery, it looks like maybe it was indeed time.
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Q. What is the key to his delivery again?
A. His front knee is miles better ... he does not land on the heel any more, and the knee does not hyperextend. Or at least it did not on Saturday.
I'll take that knee, the rest of his career, if I can get it. I'm not thrilled -- it's hardly Tim Lincecum, gliding over the front foot as softly as a feather -- but it's no longer an eyesore. The knee even buckles forward a little bit from time to time on followthrough; there's no rearward tension on it.
The cleats land exactly perpendicular ... a toe land would be better, but overall he lands quite softly on the front foot.
........
The knee looked solved on Saturday. That leaves only reps on the release point! Glory be. Clean bill of health to move forward with technique now.
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Q. Didn't you break down the delivery, back when Paxton first reported?
A. Yep ... we were filled with admiration for
- The high front side
- The butter-smooth acceleration
- The rear wallet "driving a nail" to get the CG involved
- The Japanese aiki move to hook the shoulders to the CF
- etc
Here is the original series from March 2001, based on Lonnie Mathis' bootleg tape. PART 1 of 7, March 2011.
Right up until the foot plant, James Paxton has one of the beautiful sports motions in all of baseball. The Mariners say that (unlike Taijuan) he has no innings limits, and he may well wind up being a 3,000-inning workhorse like the Unit and Carlton were. Think that one over before you deal him...
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