M's 9, Mets 1
let's talk majesty this morning


Was only able to stop by the 'puter for a jiff, so here's a July 31 chat stub.  As y'know, we live to serve.


1.  This was the kind of mechanical, soulless victory that Paxton --- > needs to be able to give his squad.

He had easy velocity, and he was throwing strikes, but it says here that (first 2 times through anyway) his yakker was not really a danger and his slider/cutter wasn't much of a threat either.  So he used the Red Sox fastball attack to much lesser effect.  He had to settle for what, 6 ip 6h 0 r 0 er 0 bb 8 k.  In its own way that is more of a $200M performance than when he's feelin' it.

Asterisk, late in the game he started landing his knuckle curve.  That's where he started padding his strikeout totals like LeBron in the 4th quarter of a Warrior bashing.

Double asterisk ... Matty, do you know of any way to quantify "easy velocity"?  Heh!  The kind Verlander had when he was young, Clemens had, Scherzer has, where they're throwing 95 and can go to 98 any time they like.  I'll bet if you could somehow take pitchers with Paxton's "easy velo" and study them you'd find something that ... wasn't unpleasant.


As y'might be aware, Paxton went 6-0, 1.37 in July (46:6:0 fip line) as he lifted the M's into the majestic glory of an Erasmo Ramirez trade.  The M's are -3.5 back to KC at seven games over, with just the Rays between us and them.


2.  Boomstick was the American League's #1 RBI man even before his game-winning blast in the first inning.  He's got 79 in 101 games.  Formulae are nice and all, but changing the scoreboard is nice in its own way, too.

Here's the video of Cruz' shot, which had an apex of 128 feet on its way out to the deep left-center upper tank.  Niagara Falls is 167 feet high, so it's not like Cruz' ball was that impressive compared to Niagara.  And that's nothing compared to the Pyramid of Giza, which clocks in at 455 feet.  On a list of high things, Cruz' homer was only okay.  On the other hand, the ball would have easily cleared the Hanging Gardens of Babylon (look it up).

Seeing as James Paxton was pitching, it also cleared the Mets' heads of ambition at an exceptionally early hour of the day.


3.  Leonydas King of Spalding with the great RF dive and let's remember he hasn't seen that ball slicing away from him down the line.  It's a funny thing, but as a 4-to-make-3 outfielder I like him pretty well.  If he's hungry and has to fight for his time, keep the zone tight and give an intelligent at-bat.

His homer was on a high pitch, which is good since his problems come when he gets loopy and late.  Almost better:  his single was a fliner the other way, to left-center.  Mebbe it did him some good to visit the old AAA digs, like Rocky III.  Maybe Leonydas did some pull-ups down there on the water pipes under the stands?


4.  Gallardo did throw nicely but Dr. D is dreaming of a Zeus-King-Miranda-Erasmo-Marco rotation down the stretch.  Andrew Moore will stuff those info seeds in his cheeks like a squirrel and he'll be back.


5.  Silver linings Dept.  Guillermo Heredia is 7-for-his-last 18 with a 1:1 EYE, two doubles and a homer.  For me Heredia is a dynamic, exciting young player and I'm looking forward to seeing what he's got.


6.  Zoom says the M's will offer 2/$21M to Dyson which would be extremely happy middle ground for Dr. D.  

6a.  While he's at it Zoom also sees a legit Dipoto run on Shohei Otani this winter.  And I'll just bet you that this forward-thinking org he-ah in Seattle would let Otani get in some platoon outfield.  Hey, next best thing to a Brooks Kieschnick situation, what?  ...  Baseball would be a pretty fun hobby if Otani were involved in any way.  The Legend of Typhoon Irabu, this time for realz.


Dr D




But it's hard to see another $200mil contact hitting the books any time soon.  He's the kind of guy to splurge on, that's for sure, and I do love the idea of double-duty for someone like him.

Dyson at $10-11m/year is indeed right in the sweet spot; have to imagine some team will offer that much annually for 3-4 years, though, and that's probably not in the cards for this organization.  Too many young OF's already in the system, and it's not that hard to pick up a speed/glove 4th OF from the rehab/rebound group--especially with a wheeler-dealer like JeDi at the helm.  But yeah, two year commitment on a deal like that described above would be great.


Big gets in FA seem unlikely with JeDi, unless he's convinced it's the perfect player. He seems content to grab other guys' rejects and spend his budget internally on extensions. That said, maybe Otani does seem the perfect player to him... I think the old adage about winning FA bidding meaning you value the player more than anyone else is going to prove particularly true in the new-look Mariners' case. So I doubt we keep Dyson, and I imagine we'll bringin more Civics than Stars via FA. The good news is, I doubt we let Paxotn or Gamel get away...


This thread doesn't seem to be showing up in the baseball chat section. Just FYI.

tjm's picture

This has nothing to do with nothing, but: The weird thing about the Giza pyramids - I mean, apart from the fact that they exist at all - is that they're not out in the middle of the Sahara somewhere. They're basically in a Cairo suburb. If you drive around town and happened to look down a street to the west, Bam, there they are. This ought to make them less impressive, but somehow doesn't diminish them a lick.

I'm not a very good visual tourist. I don't like to go places and look at things. That said, the pyramids and Crater Lake are two things that literally took my breath away the first time I saw them.

Kinda like, I dunno, a Paxton curveball.


The have acquired RHP Sonny Gray & int'l signing bonus pool money from Oakland for Dustin Fowler, James Kaprielian & Jorge Mateo.


Dustin Fowler is the #4 prospect of the Yankees (MLB.com rankings).  He's roughly equivalent to Tyler O'Neill when healthy.  Maybe he's more Oakland-like than O'Neill, who strikes out a bunch? Nah, he has a walk rate under 5% for his career.  Is he more of a center fielder than Tank? Well he was until he ruptured his patellar tendon.  We'll see how he comes back from that next season, but right now his leg is basically worthless. It's like trading for Kyle Lewis a month after he blew out his knee last season, except Lewis is a better prospect.

Maybe Kaprielian is the get? Well he's thrown 56 innings in 2 years, mostly as a starter, and blew his elbow out in the Spring - he hasn't pitched at all this year.  He's been injured all the time.  When he gets back he'll probably get bullpenned.  His stuff should play up from the pen - assuming he gets it back after rehab.

Jorge Mateo is a 22 year old tools pick ("faster than a speeding bullet, can man a glove position") who hopes to be the next Adam Jones (SS-to-CF conversion all-star) without the HR pop but hasn't quite put it all together yet.

Marco said derisively after the O'Neill backlash that "obviously we like Marco more than the mainstream media." But that's not the point. The point is that you don't pay a price that ONLY YOU THINK is worth the player you're getting back, because then you're bidding against yourself.  And when you do that you run out of money, which is what happened that kept the Mariners from having O'Neill available when the Yankees started low-balling Oakland.  O'Neill / Thyago Vieira / Braden Bishop is roughly equivalent to what Oakland just got for Sonny Gray. That means Seattle could have made a better offer if they'd had O'Neill around, because those are not all of Seattle's available prospects.

If you're going to burn the farm down to make this team as good as it can be, then don't get in your own way. The Yankees now have Sonny Gray, and the Mariners are fighting back with Erasmo and Marco.  Maybe that will work out for them, but they didn't put themselves in the best position - and they could have. I assume Dipoto was getting gouged by the As as a division rival (the word was they wanted Lewis, Moore, and some stiffs) but with O'Neill and Neidert, plus a CFer like Bishop you'd like to think you can overcome. I don't see how the guy with the ripped patellar tendon is okay as a centerpiece but a healthy O'Neill doesn't cut it.

It's so frustrating watching the Mariners both a) throw away talent and b) still fail to come through with the big deadline addition. It's like trading for Ben Broussard and giving Sweet Lou the middle finger in July 2002 all at the same time. 

Maybe it all works out, and Marco is what Dipoto thinks he is instead of what I think he is.  That'd be great. Maybe he comes up next week, goes 7-0 down the stretch and the Ms make the playoffs and he's off and rolling on a fine MLB career for Seattle.  I'll spend a while hoping for that.

Stupid trade deadline gets me every year. ;)

Bahm1's picture

The best thing to happen to the Mariners during trade deadline was getting Sonny and Yu out of the division. 


Because after reading this, it seemed to me that even without O'Neill we could have outbid the Yankees for Gray - swap out Kyle Lewis for O'Neill and toss in Moore or Neidert, and etc. Or, like you suggest, did Beane not want to deal with someone within the division in a way that would put us in the playoffs?

I just get the impression that either DiPoto didn't want Gray, which is hard to believe, or was not going to get him for a deal that made sense. If O'Neill would have gotten Gray, he would have likely made the deal. Lewis is a great prospect - but is he untouchable? If they love Marco more than O'Neill, and wanted Gray, seems they could have dealt Lewis and still have what they consider some pitching value in the minors still, and a chance for a Wild Card.


Beane was holding out for Lewis and more.  After all, he gave up Addison Russell for a number 1 a couple years ago to win a World Series. He knows it takes talent to get top starters. So, had DiPoto not traded O'Neill, Beane could have easily come back and said, "I still want Lewis. Give me Lewis and Gray is yours. I've got a great deal brewing, but I'd rather have Lewis."

"No," says DiPoto. "But you can have O'Neill."

"Not good enough, Jer."

So, at the impasse, DiPoto does trade O'Neill, but still has Lewis.

Beane comes back: "Now that O'Neill is off the table, you can stop wasting your time with me and give me Lewis. Otherwise, I'm going with this other deal."

DiPoto says, perhaps: "No you are never getting Lewis, unless you sweeten the deal somehow. Sweeten it, and we'll talk."

"Forget it," says Beane. "Lewis and more. We're talking Sonny Gray here, not some sore armed hotshot lefty from Virginia. I'm going with the other deal. Too bad about the playoffs."

"Suck lemons, Billy. Lewis is ours and you can't have him." 

"Oh, and by the way, Jer, I really was going to take O'Neill had you waited. Sorry about the playoffs, old chum."


...the more they remain the same.

Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Orioles.

No Mariners....

Well, unless you count Marco as something more than conventional wisdom thinks....and if you count a need for need swap with Erasmo....

It's in the players' hands now.....

The Other Billy Zoom's picture

Three weeks ago it was reported Beane was after 4, COUNT EM, 4 prospects from the Yankees, including Torres or Frazier.

Competition folded, Yankees held out until last card dealt.

Beane could have gotten more back then, instead of waiting, when SIX teams were interested in shades of Gray.

Gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them ... Cashman took the pot because Beane lost leverage.

Play of keeping Lewis over O'Neill seems shrewder even if Seattle screweder.

Miami seeking moon for Straily after turning down deals from several teams, pulling him off market, then throwing him back on the market after asking for the sky as well was a different game in a different room, but, I'm guessin that is where DePoet looked after grabbing Gonzales.

But, getting facts on these matters ain't gonna happen, just like you ain't gonna prove that Putin is richer than Bezos, and we're all bozos and best just put in or shut up.



Can someone remind me when the M's made a legitimate, grade A, ESPN headline, deadline trade?

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