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Q. Wow, who's the babe?
A. It's just a composite of a lot of different women. All the features are averaged, and the face is therefore .... very beautiful. Beauty is perceived (largely) as lack of deviation from average. A 1950's catcher with a nose the size of a banana, who's to say that's not handsome? The Law Of Normalcy, that's who.
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Q. B.J. Upton was worth 5 WAR at the ages of 22 and 23 -- with yet four, five years' worth of growth left to him. What's the holdup here? Is he ever going to become a great player?
A. It's important to avoid thinking of the classic missile parabola age-arc curves as a birthright. The "normal" age-arc curve, sharply up at 20-23, gently up at 24-27, levelling at 27-29, gently down at 30-32, sharply down at 33ff ... that is an amalgamation. We want things to be normal. It's one of nature's most powerful impulses, our resistance to weird things.
So, we're slow to believe that a terrific young player like Upton -- or Mike Trout!, bwahahaha -- might not follow expectations. We don't want to believe it.
Enter James here:
I seem to remember you writing that there was a strong correlation between the age someone established himself as a major league player and greatness. Assuming that I haven't totally distorted what you were saying, who is having the more impressive season: Trout or Harper? In Harper's favor is that Trout could not handle major league pitching at age 19. The argument for Trout is that he's made such a leap forward that Harper is unlikely to be able to improve that much in his age 20 season.
Asked by: Hank Gillette
Answered: 7/5/2012
Well, the reason that the age a player gets established in the majors correlates strongly with greatness is that (1) players have to work themselves up from level to level to level, and (2) the odds are most favorable for younger players. Considering just (1) first. ...Suppose that you have 1000 players at the level of "Regular Major League Player", and that a player must step forward four times to become a major league player (Good Regular Player, Marginal All-Star, Perennial All-Star, All-Time Great.) Suppose that 30% of players take a step forward each year. If you start player out at age 25, almost none of them will make four steps forward by age 30. But if you start them out at age 21, some of them will.
Factor (2) is that if that percentage that steps forward is 30% at age 25, it's 40% or 45% at age 21. It is never true that MOST players take a step forward or that players can be counted on to take a step forward. Many young players never improve very much, like Alex Rios and. . .what's his name, the Upton who plays center for Tampa Bay. They reach a certain level; that's just where they are. It's really unfair to those players to EXPECT them to be something that they're not.
But if a player gets established at age 21, then he has a lot more time to consolidate his gains and take another step forward.
Trading off the age 21 vs. age 19 and one level of performance vs. another level of performance, putting that all into one sausage grinder. . .well, that's complicated math, and I wouldn't have a lot of confidence in my ability to do it well or anybody else's, frankly. Al Kaline was a great player, but he was never really any greater than he was when he was 20 and 21 years old, or not much greater anyway. Ted Williams was never greater than he was at 22. Young players SOMETIMES make explosive steps forward in ways that players almost never do after the age of 25.
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Q. So, 5 x $15M for Upton. Is he worth 3 WAR per season?
A. Two WAR might be the new 3 WAR ($15M) under the inflated system. The Braves need 2-3 WAR from him to justify the contract under the new system.
As Sullivan points out here, Upton has taken a weird -- therefore ugly -- career path. He walked a lot in his early 20's, and now he's an extreeeeeeeme hacker in his late 20's. Notice how you react with revulsion to the bizarre, reversed plate trends?
;- )
But the weird, ugly EYE trends don't necessarily imply that Upton is deteriorating - that he'll SLG less than .450 in three years.
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Q. If Upton's worth $15M, is Michael Saunders?
A. Upton hit .250/.300/.450 (107 OPS+) in center for Tampa ... Saunders last year hit .250/.300/.430 (110 OPS+) in center in Safeco Field. Saunders would seem to be just at the onset of some major possibilities and has reached the value of B.J. Upton, almost before even starting his climb.
One thing it's safe to say. If you had a hole in center field, and you'd been trying to fix it for a while, it would be perfectly reasonable to spend $15M a year on a center fielder like B.J. Upton or Michael Saunders.
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Q. Where was he on that Safeco overlay, again?
A. Here is his 2012 scatter chart with the old fences.
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He had 19 homers and 31 doubles in 139 games last year. He's probably the single player you'd most identify as a roto "Safeco Fence Sleeper" for 2012.
Failing some kind of major collapse -- 25% chance -- Saunders is going to be a player you could win your next pennant with. There's probably a better chance of 30 homers and 40 doubles than of a collapse.
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"Two WAR might be the new three WAR ($15M) under the inflated system." So do you mean the post-'roid inflated system, or the new inflated economic reality with huge regional TV contracts? Either way, there is no excuse for keeping on the sidelines when you have the opportunity/need to improve your team. Let's hope Santa Jack brings us some 2-3+ WAR toys for Christmas, before all the best toys are sold out.
Sooo.... ball player prices are about to go through the roof. All the franchise heavy hitters are going to make gluttons of themselves since they feast both on their own local packages and the MLB national packages. And stadium attendance, and...
Like you said, those regional contracts are gonna change the shape of the league. The reason Tampa Bay locked in Longoria for even more years now, through his decline phase? So he doesn't cost twice as much in half-a-decade when his original contract was set to expire. We need to sign Felix NOW, because otherwise Boras and crew are gonna smash player salaries up against the rock of Gibraltar as soon as those TV contracts go into effect - and you don't want to be the guy who has to pay his player so much cash the Prince Fielder deal looks like a crazy bargain.
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On the plus side, the media rights for the Rangers/Dodgers/Angels/etc are gonna make the Mariners next TV deal increase in value by an extra 9 figures. They're setting the bar high; the Ms won't come anywhere near that, but it'll help their market value increase. being worth 10% of whatever the Dodgers are worth for TV rights is dependent on the Dodgers being worth as much as they can be.
On the minus side, top tier free agents are gonna get MEGA expensive, to the point that no mid-market (of which the Ms dubiously lower themselves to being) will be able to afford more than one, if that. Especialy because, as Doc (and Bill James) said, teams have been shown to prefer "proven" commodities over cheaper, unproven players with similar potential. Locking up your kids is gonna get to be vital as costs are jacked 50-100% per player, with a surcharge on the really good ones. So running a healthy farm team is huge.
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At this point, if/once some of Jack's talented players start to produce (lookin' at you, Ackley) we should probably just lock him up for life, like Billy Beane. Let him pay the talented ones he drafts to stay here, and don't worry too much about adding free agents to a NW backwater with a cold stadium that makes hitters cry. The Pat Gillicks of the world who feast on free agent combinations will still be out there, being resourceful with the guys who don't fit on the big clubs, but it'll be hard to talk the ownership of any mid-market into punting on the farm as Gillick has always done.
Of course, paying your own guys only works if the stream of talent from the farm system remains intact. Ask the Twins how well they backed up their young talent with extra internal talents. I actually wonder if this is what Jack is busy doing with ownership: not taking orders from them to keep fan expectations low and save them money, but showing them spreadsheets about the Twins vs the As, with passages about the faceplant by the Marlins highlighted, and predictions on what free-agent prices are about to jump to as he outlines his plan for "competitive" ballclubs into the future.
It takes a smart man to illustrate how market inefficiencies create a niche for a man of his skills JUST as they are needed - and Jack is no dummy. I'm really curious to see how the offseason plan develops, because the board room financial conversations this offseason have to be just as interesting as the haggling with agents and other GMs.
~G
*counts on his fingers* how much is nine figures?
It would take vewwy, vewwy liddle from Jesus Montero before Dr. D slapped down one of those Longoria deals for him. If he comes out of the gate hitting .300 with power the first two months -- and his LD% was like 25% in the second half of 2012 -- people are going to dive onto the bandwagon in heaps. .... Alternatively, I guess, they could hit the button in the airplane lavatory that mixes him with a blue chemical and sends him pinwheeling out into the wild blue yonder.
Seager, Saunders, Ackley also sit on perches that are approximately 2, 3 months away from a complete overhauling of their assessments. If Saunders is slugging .540 in June, check how much he wants then...
John Jaso played catcher last year and raked for a 144 OPS+ that looked approximately 97.3% authentic. He's got a platoon asterisk but if he hit the market, it's pretty easy to see him sailing past Mike Napoli's value. Hard to believe that he's got three years of club control left. I guess they can afford to make him a lower priority.
3 years of club control Jaso is a big plus. We should not let that go away.
The Seager, Saunders, Ackley overhaul probably shows up about mid-July.
But I don't see a Seager overhaul occuring. He's going to be a slugging 2B or more than adequate 3B. i suppose he would have to be hitting .189 or have 17 homers in July for that to change a great degree.
Saunders still has a bit of a question mark next to his name, or some will see it there. But the overhaul on him is more positional related, I think. Is he a full-time pennant caliber CF, a 115 OPS+ LF, or a slugging LF who hits 32 homers. He's going to have to fall off the planet again to go below those levels. There are interesting value differences to each of those levels, however. I think he's the first option, with a bat that could be either of the other two options.
The overhaul on Ackley is more problematic, perhaps. Or many will see it that way. His down side is that he's a glove first 2B, who will get to 100 OPS+ some seasons. That's a heck of a downside. Upside is that he's a glove first 2B with a first rate bat.
Just wondering as well, Franklin may push the Ackley overhaul a bit...or may get his own. Looks like the Franklin as a SS idea is dead on Seattle arrival. Too bad. Way too bad. But there is a LF element that could come to play...for Ackley or Franklin, or a 1B element for Ackley.
If Pete Rose can be a 2B or 3B or LF or 1B, depending on what his team needed, there is no reason that Ackley can't as well. Without a MLB AB for Franklin, I think I would rather see him in the lineup than Smoak right now.
moe
Especially when you're trying to make plans. Who is Ackley? Is he gonna keep disappointing (assuming a guy who's put up 6 WAR in his first season and a half can be considered to have disappointed) or will he really turn into Chase Utley?
Justin Smoak has been just about the biggest disappointment this side of Jeff Clement - will that reverse itself or is he done?
Who is Seager? Right now he looks pretty good - is he gonna step back to "decent" or forward to "great"? Ditto Saunders, who was one day short of making us pay for his great season in arb and now will save us a nice chunk of change if he hits his potential.
Is Montero the crusher he was at catcher, or the whiffer he was at DH? The road Hyde or the home Jeckyll? The second we trade him he'll turn into Jeff Bagwell, but if we keep him... what then?
Will the young stud pitchers actually be studs, or will they tease us for years a la Tillman in B-More, or flat fail like Hochevar in KC and Andrew Miller wherever he stepped foot in the rotation?
The number of blue-chippers we have is amazing. Everybody talks about KC, but they haven't got the pitching. We've got EVERYTHING... if it falls into place. If it doesn't, we'll be like Eric Wedge's last team, the Indians - who almost surged, had a little playoff experience (wouldn't THAT be nice??) and then fell back into the muck.
But we have 8 or so of the top 100ish prospects in minor league ball to go with major talents up and down the big-league roster. We're packing the bullpen out with 98 mph arms and whipsaw breakers, our rotation should be staffed with young frontliners... and we have no idea if that's enough to even get us to .500, because a team is not simply a conglomeration of roto stats.
That's the hurdle for Jack: he can assemble raw talent, but can he shape it into a team? I sure hope so, but this is the year that it has to start to come together. We need to know which guys are foundational. We need to build a hub and then expand on it. We'll have money, but Bavasi showed just throwing money at a problem isn't a solution in and of itself. Heck, the Mets have proven that for eons.
Here's hoping for the right calls on all these young guys. Keeping the Clements and trading the Choos and Cabreras was a major step in how we got here. Keep and extend the guys who are the future, absolutely. Gotta build our young foundation.
Who fits the bill, again? Could be all of em, or none, and we certainly have some prospect overlap. The Indians traded Richie Sexson because they had Jim Thome. We need to find our Thomes before we worry about what happens with our Sexsons. C'mon kids - breakthrough seasons in 2013 would be really welcome from some or all of you. And then we'll better be able to make the calls on who to extend and who to replace.
TIA.
~G
... for about 3-4 more months :- )
of epic proportions. Gillick having that much ammo and young talent to add vets to? On a continual basis? Yeesh.
And yes, the Ms might turn back to Gillick if he can run everything from his mansion in Toronto. He's getting a lil old to be jetting around to anywhere. I'm still hoping Jack can get the right couple of vets to gel the kids on the roster into some sort of fiercely talented weapon of destruction... but Gillick is certainly in the wings.
Ms gotta have a playoff team or two to bump their negotiating position for the TV network deal, doncha know. The Ms might commit real resources to making that happen.
Step 2: profit!
~G
Pat in the Nolan Ryan role for the M's would be my dream. As President and CEO, he would be replacing both Armstrong and Lincoln - talk about your FO upgrade.
And he lives in Seattle now, G. Churchill wrote about running into him at a UW baseball game, sitting by himself just taking it in. Nobody recognized him.