First of all: Hello everyone!
After a little more than a year of being LrKrBoi29, I decided to make my first post. Please don't shoot back too hard. :)
Back to topic: I'm with DC on this one (which doesn't happen often). The R. Martin rumor probably is just a thing from his camp to get the Yanks to add a couple of million or an extra year. For the outside it makes too much sense. Z said he will have more payroll available, the M's just declined their "official starting catcher", need hitters, yada yada.
And even if not, there is some sense in this...
That's what I call hedging. I'd prefer Napoli, because this would split up playing time at C and DH between three players. Jaso starts against righties (mashes them, will give him about 30-40% playing time) with Jesus/Napoli DHing. Montero/Napoli start against lefties, rotating between C and DH. Works perfectly fine. If Zunino is mashing AAA come june/july, deal with it then. DO NOT expect him to perform at a high level out of the gate. He can always pull a Catricala in AAA. Or a Smoak/Montero/Ackley/last three years of Saunders at the MLB level. I've seen too much of this the last couple of years to go all in on Zunino at this point.
If I look at Z's track record, I hardly find any inconsistent moves. There have been a couple of trades that did not work out or didn't work out yet, of course. But no real inconsitencies. If Zunino works out well, put Montero in a package for Stanton when he'll become available next year because of arbitration. If he doesn't or he needs longer, fine, we actually have catcher covered. We can afford to not go all in right now, but rather to hedge in case our bet doesn't work out.
That was a long first comment. I hope it helps the discussion though.
Greetings from the old world!
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I/O Gordon: I don't mind the idea of a "vet presence for a pitching staff" but wasn't that the point of Olivo? And didn't that fail miserably? And isn't Napoli only nominally a catcher, like Montero or Jaso?
CRUNCH: :: He stops short :: If Mike Napoli, C is an acceptable version of the 2013 Mariners, what are you doing offering Russell Martin, C a bunch of money on the basis that he will jell your pitching staff? Martin can't hit. The concept there is that it is urgent to get a D specialist.
Or if Napoli, C is fine and dandy with you ... at the end of the day, why aren't Jaso and Montero acceptable to you?
We chess geeks are hardwired this way. If you spend three moves trying to get the other guy's isolated Queen Pawn blockaded, and then you trade off your blockading piece (the Knight on d5) for the opponent's Bishop on e3, because you can threaten something on the other side of the board ... a Grandmaster just annotates, "Inconsistent." and that is more than sufficient to condemn the move, to prove that the move is a bad one.
The problem is that your first plan will now fail; you won't get the pawn blockaded. And this new plan, to threaten the Queenside or whatever you tried to do in one move, is weak (insufficiently prepared). An inconsistent move, in chess, cannot be right. And when the GM annotates, "Inconsistent," it is a moral accusation. The player has lost focus, has lost the thread of the game, has gotten distracted by something and has (momentarily) become a weak player.
I/O: Maybe the Mariners aren't really scampering after a bunch of chickens in the catcher coop?
CRUNCH: We hope not. ... but the rumors have come early and often, and it's tough to imagine why the Mariners would be flying Mike Napoli to Seattle as a negotiating tactic. Granted, it could be that they're really interested in Napoli as a DH, are using Martin just to leverage Napoli, as several of you have pointed out.
This would be less inconsistent, if Montero and Napoli and Jaso were going to play 1B and Smoaked was in the past tense.
IFF the M's are urgently grabbing after Napoli or Martin, whichever will take their $$$, there is a sickening inconsistency to this Rocky-type chase after the chickens in the catcher coop. It cannot be right to pursue Russell Martin while pursuing his conceptual opposite, Mike Napoli -- and preparing to using either as the Jaso, Montero and Mike Zunino replacement. Do you need a different type of catcher or don't you?
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You gave away a young Bob Gibson wannabe in order to get a hitter you said was Albert Pujols. He did great -- hit .295 with power on the road, as a 22-year-old rookie. And he got better in the second half. Now you don't have time to let him hit .295/.315/.460 overall, at DH, for his age-23 season? You've got to flush the young Pujols out of there for Mike Napoli?
Sez TJM,
It seems clear they've made a decision to get a new catcher which means somebody has to go. Jaso is the only lefty in the entire group so you'd think he'd be a sure thing to stay, especially since he was not incidentally the team's best hitter and one of its best baserunners. That leaves Montero and Zunino and I sincerely doubt they'd move Zunino, which leaves you with the question: What is Montero worth?
Last year, when he was judged to be a future MOTO bat with no position he was worth one of the best young righthanders in baseball. Is he worth more or less now? The consensus judgement seems to be that he is worth less.I don't really understand why. I simply don't buy the repeated asseertion from other sites that Montero failed as a hitter. I thought for a young catcher in his first full season he hit remarkably well - killed lefties and improved as the season went on against righties. Montero and one of the Big 3.5 would get you what?
Of course, it doesn't matter at all what I think or even what Jack thinks. It matters what other GM's think and by now Jack would know the answer to that. Seems to me he wouldn't be pursuing another catcher so vigorously if he didn't think he could make a good deal on Montero either now or by mid-year when Zunino has had another few months in the high minors.
Word. ... on those same blogs, it has dawned that in the same age-21 season that Mike Zunino just had, Jesus Montero was up to the big leagues already and having a spectacular cup of coffee with the Yankees. And that .295/.315/.435 (road) is impressive for a 22-year-old who has trained defense first.
From a scouting standpoint, Montero covered all parts of the plate with authority, and his EYE doubled in the second half. His line drive rate was SKY high from June on. Jesus Montero looked very inch the part in 2012.
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A foolish consistency? That's when you are inflexible and won't adapt to new ideas and new situations. If a sniper took John Jaso out from CLink stadium, then rejecting Mike Napoli might be a foolish consistency.
Granted, Mike Napoli is Jay Buhner with a catcher's mitt, and every team he's ever played on has been good. Napoli's an excellent ballplayer. But he plays the ONE position at which the delta is tiny.
I think youse guys' instincts were sounder than mine on this one. SSI has been too open-minded about an idea that is worthless from start to finish. The Jays better be offering Lawrie for Montero, that's all I got ta say.
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Comments
... reads SSI, scoffs into his glove out there in LF, but dares not actually enter the infield, suspecting all too well the fragility of his own self-superiority. LrKrBoi29 does not enter the room with a cheery greeting and a friendly, well-thought-out point of view that leads to a reassessment of an article.
:: group hug :: from the New World :- )
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It's looking like DC's take was accurate -- if Zduriencik had been serious about Russell Martin he surely could have given a third year. Am sure the infield heaves a collective sigh that much of this was posturing. Good stuff BSF.
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Agreed that a 2013 jobshare with Napoli, Jaso, Montero could (theoretically) offer an Earl-like prosperity at those positions ... questions here run to the post-2013 years of Napoli's deal, but Dr. D is willing to take the good with the bad if Napoli can post one of his .550 SLG type seasons...
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As we've noted many times, for Zunino to take over the club NEXT year, 2014, would be a fast-track Posey timeline. Should he be given the club in 2013, surely the M's would tell him to rrelax at the plate and any contribution there is gravy for 2013.
Plus-plus post there amigo :- )
Thanks for the warm welcome. I really appreciate your work and thoughts here and also Spec's at the Stalk.
Thinking a little further, I actually think that Napoli is the perfect fit for the M's. Besides the catching situation, he would also hedge against Smoak not working out. Think about it. Srgt. Wedge can play his platoons, you can have a rotation of Jaso/Montero/Napoli/Smoak and maybe Carp rotating at C/1B/DH. With three guys able to catch in the lineup and one backup on the bench, there's always the possibility of switching Napoli to catcher in case of in-game injury and bringing in Smoak/Carp without losing the DH spot. Adding Swisher would only be gravy in this situation, as it also covers the COF situation and gives one more option for 1B/DH (and otherwise be a hedge against a Guti injury).
While I really want Zunino to work out well, I don't think he will see the majors in 2013. I actually think he will start in AA next year, be called up to AAA mid 2013 and make the jump to the pros in june/july of 2014, so his arb clock doesn't start ticking too early. There's no point in rushing him, as that will only give us one year less of his prime, and based on Z's handling of Pax/Hultzen this seems like the most probable way it'll go down. A prospect has to earn his spot, not be told to relax and the outcome doesn't matter. Because it definitely does!
Considering the contract for Napoli, I don't even care if we slightly overpay. With Figgins coming off the books after next year and payroll space for 2013, this is not a problem. We're not the Rays, we don't have a lot of payroll obligations, we can afford an overpay of up to 3-5 million, especially in the first years. Thinking ahead and considering a new TV deal, it won't really be a hindrance in the second half of a 4 year deal either. If the team wins, attendance will go up again and there will be only more financial freedom. With the team playing .500 ball in the second half of 2012 the focus has to lie on winning in the first half of 2013, and with the talent in the minors I'm not scared for 2015 and beyond. A lot of the kids just needs a little more time. And having too much talent for too few spots is a problem I'm totally willing to tackle. I like this way more than the other way around, which we had for a number of years now. :s
Adding Napoli and Swisher solidifies the OF, IF and catcher positions. Adding Napoli and Swisher really makes our offense much, much better. And in a couple of years having enough mpney shouldn't be a problem.