First things first. It's PAY-o-lini. It's not pow-lini.
But I love the POW! business so much, and it's so fitting, that I couldn't give it up.
So don't be shocked when you start hearing announcers saying PAY-o-lini.
***
I'm not down on Stefen Romero, I've just never bought in to the extent that others have.
Nor am I down on Julio Morban, though I've always known he'd have work to do.
But I'm ready to annoint the Mariners new top outfield prospect. (And I think he'll end up an outfielder.)
POW!
***
As I mentioned in passing the recap, not more than a year ago, Daniel Paolini was a 22-year-old struggling in the Midwest League, watching his age-group peers (Brad Miller, Jack Marder, Leon Landry, John Hicks) tear up High Desert.
As of the end of May, he was hitting .254/.324/.381. Worse, he was being moved off second base. To that point, it was thought that the key for Paolini would be his ability to stick at second, and it looked like he wasn't cutting it.
Of course, there were some encouraging signs. He was drawing a decent amount of walks, his BABIP was an unlucky .267 and he was flat-out refusing to strike out (an almost unheard-of 10.1% K rate).
***
And then ... POW!
It started in July 2012, when he hit .325/.404/.519 with 11 walks and 11 K.
Then the lightbulbs started going off supernova-style in 29 games in August:
11 HR
44 hits
12 walks
.361/.422/.705
All while maintaining his K% under 15%. Slugging .700 with a K% under 15%? Even if it's just one month, it's not something you see everyday. That's kind of Kevin-Youkilis-when-he-was-getting-MVP-votes kind of stuff (2008: 17.4% K rate; .569 SLG).
***
But he was in the low minors and was old for his league. Could he keep it up at a higher level?
No. He got better.
His K% has stayed amazingly low -- 13.6%
His BB% has gone up -- a vintage-Youk-like 13.9%
All while his ISO keep blossoming (and, yes, it's High Desert, so you can't take it literally), but still, it's .231.
***
Is he an outfielder? I think so. He played LF everyday until Ji-Man Choi was promoted and the team needed a first baseman. Since then he's been at first. But with Choi at Jackson, I assume he'll go back to LF if/when he gets the call. He's not a huge guy (6-0, 190) and, though not fast, he ought to be OK at a corner. The Big Club don't need no more infielders.
***
***
There are two guys who have been "off the charts" this year: Choi and Paolini. The latter is 23, so he should be getting a chance to bring his stuff to AA. I know there's not much room there, but it's time to make some.
Age of 23 in High A and Road OPS of 765 are huge red flags for me. Eye and contact skills are very nice! Do you think he will get a callup to AA soon so we can get a true look at his skills? Seems a huge waste keeping him at high A for a full season. Morban looks hobbled again for the umpteenth time so there should be some AB's there waiting for him.
Those are totally legitimate red flags, and that's why I also agree that spending at least part of the year in Jackson, as they did with Romero last year, is important.
Morban's injuries and K% are much bigger red flags, I think, and Romero has been struggling to produce corner-OF-worthy ISO at AAA.
And Paolini's best attribute -- generating power while keeping that magnificent BB/K ratio -- is still visible on the road.
Great input. Thanks!
I guess we'll have a good month worth of AA AB's to look at. Nice timing!