KK
Downhill on a Motor Scooter
And spare the shock absorbers. Konspiracy Korners included

Posted by

jemanji
8/11/15
17

.

Herein resides a small Konspiracy Korner.  It's got little teeth in its mouth, too, so bring your spider-swatter and can of Raid.  Alternatively, scan down to where you see Nelson Cruz' name.  Either way, have a good one.  - Jeff

...

At Hey Bill, the conversation took a turn for the (much) worse:

...

All the players being younger than you is no big deal. When the MANAGERS are all younger than you are...
Asked by: shthar
Answered: 8/10/2015
Most of the players now are about the same age as my kids. So the next step for me is the players being younger than my kids. . . .

...

Lloyd McClendon is fortunately 4 years older than I am, though Don Wakamatsu is two months younger.  Edgar is one month younger, so when he takes over SSI will impose a tectonic-plate change on its tone in discussing the Mariners.  Seniority has its privileges, don'cha know.

My son JOHN is 23, turns 24 in November, and ... could beat most Mariners at most sports, other than baseball and softball, obviously.  :: beams proudly :: kind of odd that all current Mariners are older than him, isn't it?!  Scanning down their roster you find exactly one (1) Mariner younger than 24, whether starting or sitting.  And Taijuan -- at 22 -- is considered a baby.

So there y'go amig-O.  Dr. D is right on the brink of a new brand, rolled out in synchronicity with The Edgar Press Conference.  Sour old curmudgeon who is right often enough to be infuritating.  :: bows to four directions ::

.........

Jesus Montero's home run into the bullpen a couple days ago ... he didn't load the bat up any more than when he whistles a rifle shot through the 2B hole.  He got me thinking that, at some point on down the road, he might turn some of those doubles into homers.  All it would take is a bit more anticipation, and a bit more windup.

Hm.

..........

Since you brought up synchronicity. ... That would make a fun Konspiracy Korner, wouldn't it?  Kids wouldn't know, but everybody older than Lloyd McClendon is aware that World War I started with the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, archduke of Austria/Hungary.  He was shot in 1914 in a car whose license plate read "A 111118".  True, His Franzness spoke German rather than English, but get with it pokey.  Over the next century the famous little grainy license photograph would be enjoyed by far more English-speakers than German-speakers.

World War I was obviously destined to end on November 11, 1918, which of course was the day the Armistice (get it, A?) was signed.  So it was appointed unto man to do things his own way for 4 years, 4 months, and 20 days ... right at 1600 days, I think, which would be a "forty days in the wilderness" times, um, forty days in the wilderness.  

Unfortunately, those four years weren't quite enough of a lesson, as it turned out.  We demanded a bigger lesson.  But since then, we've been more careful.  There have been a merciful 70 years' worth of abstinence from wars involving 100 countries at the same time.  Unnervingly, 70 years is also a Biblical period of time that is bounded on either end ...

No, Dr. D isn't a member of the 700 Club.  Not by a long shot.  We're goofing off here.

.......

Nelson Cruz' last home run was 140 feet high, you say?  We've mentioned before, but ... imagine a 14-story building that stood behind the shortstop.  Some world-class pitcher is going to attack you, and you're going to physically hit a baseball over that building when he does.

The most tragicomic element in this entire season, is the waste of Nelson Cruz' season.  But the way he's going right now, a 178 OPS+ and a firm determination to hit the ball hard to all 4 points of the compass, it's hard to believe he won't give us at least a decent cleanup season in 2016.

Cruz' comps, such as Jay Buhner and Jayson Werth, tend not to play well at ages 34 and beyond.  Of course, general principles have nothing to do with specific chess positions.  It's not so often that somebody goes from a 178 OPS+ in one year to a 95 OPS+ in the very next one.

I got to thinking something un-PC the other day.  Is it just me, or are there a lot of Latin players who age better than their templates generally?  Edgar Martinez, Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro (roids), Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz ... I wasn't able to immediately think of Latin stars who fell off the table real early.  Juan Gonzalez was done about 34-35, but that's not exactly retiring early.

It would be hard to study; I'm not thinking of Gehrig-level galacticos and not thinking of merely "good" players.  I'm thinking of "ordinary cleanup hitters" who hit their way off the island .... walks and homers at age 23, like Alvin Davis, is a predictor of early aging.  "Old players' skills" are dangerous past 30; with guys like Vlad and Nellie we're talking about guys who let the bats fly.

Just a thought.   Could be way wrong.

.........

They went with Johnny Bullpen last night, wasting my $100 in tickets and concessions, because ... Roenis Elias would poison the culture?  They are going THAT far to freeze out a rookie 10-game winner?  Or do I have that wrong?

True, Johnny Bullpen did good.  But it goes to the issue of not being Pete Carroll, counselor.

.........

We find out today that the Seahawks asked Brandon Mebane to take a pay cut.  Wait wait wait.  Is it reasonable to adjust signed contracts, based on circumstances?  Or is it not?

..........

Ketel Marte, of whom Dr. D is not a fan, has --- > not only (1) unusual ability to cover a pitch, with (2) a very pleasing eye for the strike zone, but also has (3) a Mike Montgomery-type assumption that he can play major league baseball.

There are SOME little guys, such as Mark McLemore, who run nice OBP's just because they foul off tough pitches, and are so blamed stubborn about pitches outside the strike zone.  It's not impossible that Marte should become a fast, SS-capable Mark McLemore.  He's got Dr. D wobbling a little.

Cheers,

Jeff

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Comments

1

The date duration calculator says 1597 days excluding the start date and the end date from 6/28/1914 to 11/11/1918.  Of course, when tallying a war, you would include the start and end date for 1599 days.  Why, although they were partial days, they were calendar days of war.  This is interesting.  There is a long biblical tradition of bad things happening in sets of 40.  There is also a long history of bad things happening in sets of 39.  For example, a prisoner in the ancient world received a maximum whipping of 39 lashes, because 40 lashes could kill him.  Most people believe that Jesus was whipped with 39 lashes as that was the Roman custom of the day. 

If 40 is a biblical symbol of trevails and hard times, 39 is the number of the brink of annihilation. 


It will be interesting to hear the group's thoughts on this subject. 

2

But thanks for counting it up amigo.  ... if you wanted to pursue the "40 days appointed" you'd say the last chunk of 40 days had a day amputated to underline the idea 'this far and no farther.'  But I wouldn't pursue it :- )

The A 111118 license plate is pretty suggestive for me, though.  That's the car he was shot in, right?

3

The count is 1598 days for WWI, as date duration calculator does include the start date.  This includes the 1916 leap day of February 29.  The license plate the Duke was driving is legit!  Smithsonian magazine even says so.  The Duke's car license read A 111 118 or A III 118.  Observe,

Heh!  Maybe the end date was predestined at the start date.

4

I don't know about any of that numerology stuff but WWI is fascinating. I finished Dan Carlin's hardcore history podcast series on it called "Blueprint for Armageddon", which is tremendous. That war happened right at the hinge between the Napoleonic war paradigm and modern warfare. There are pictures of French cavalry at the beginning of the war that are indistinguishable from Napolean's cavalry. Almost none of the troops even wore helmets at the beginning of the war. But the artillery and infantry weapons were the "1.0" versions of those used in WWII. The generals on all sides were from the old war paradigm and had trouble adjusting, with horrific consequences. Needless to say, a horse cavalry charge in an era of machine guns and barbed wire didn't go well. Ditto the mass-charges of entrenched positions. Those tactics worked when the opponents had single shot rifles and primitive cannon. 

5

A little bit like Colin Kaepernick rolling out against Wagner and Irvin?  ... sorry ...

No, the suffering in WWI was simply mind-numbing.  Not all the kiddies here realize that there were a lot of baseball legends, such as Christy Mathewson, who sacrificed their careers and lives in order that others might enjoy the blessings of freedom.  A Hey Bill today:

"It's just that a big, big gap developed between the ways that we thought about the world and the way that older people thought about the world. You can't really explain it to young people, because so many of the accepted beliefs of older generations have almost disappeared, and it's hard to get people to understand what it was like." Would you be willing to try? I'm in my 20's and have very little knowledge of how previous generations differed. 
Asked by: izzy24
Answered: 8/12/2015
Well, I'll do what I can with the limitations of my attention span. Our parents generation saw the world as a very tough place, and believed to the core of their being that one had to BE tough to make it in the world. You had to behave yourself; you had to follow the rules; even the liberals tended to see the world this way. They had been raised in (a) the depression, which was economic hard times far beyond what we can understand, and (b) World War II. . .and even before then, they had been raised by parents for generations who believed in toughness. Child rearing manuals into the 1930s generally stressed the importance of punishing misbehavior. Spanking children shouldn't begin until the child was 8 months old; that was actual advice. Children should be potty trained when they were three months old; if it didn't take by the time the child was six or eight months old, then it was time to introduce spanking into the potty training program.. What was "punishment" then would be "child abuse" now--serious child abuse. If somebody insulted you, you confronted him. If it came to blows, it came to blows; so what? If the Russians got out of line, you had to fight them. People had to learn to take care of themselves. Women were supposed to do women's things--cooking, cleaning, taking care of the house--and men were supposed to do men's things, like earning money and fighting wars. x x x x x x x As children, we were force-fed more toughness than we had any actual need for. About 1963, 1965 we all decided that we didn't really NEED to be so damned tough. We adopted a values system based on kindness, acceptance, enjoyment of life and trust, rather than toughness, hard work, correct behavior and self-reliance. It wasn't a perfect system, either; acceptance runs casually into laziness, enjoyment of life into self-indulgence, and trust into naivete, but then, the old system wasn't perfect, either. We basically rejected almost everything that our parents believed in, or at least it seemed that way. Our parents were racists, most of them, and we couldn't tolerate that or forgive that. Our parents insulted men who wore long hair and beards, so we all wore long hair and beards. I sense that I'm not really reaching an explanation here that will make sense. . . .There is a stanza from a Merle Haggard Song that summarizes pretty well the problem. " I read about some squirrely guy,/Who claims, he just don't believe in fightin'./An' I wonder just how long,/The rest of us can count on bein' free./They love our milk an' honey,/But they preach about some other way of livin'./When they're runnin' down my country, hoss,/They're walkin' on the fightin' side of me." The assumption is that those who have different values from the mainstream values are "squirrely guys", and they need to be set straight or they endanger all of us. That was the dominant mindset of that generation--that those who did not conform, those who did not buy in, were a danger to all of us, and therefore they must be ridiculed, excluded, beaten if necessary and forced to conform. x x xx But, to complete the story fairly. . .once the values of MY generation became the dominant values, we became every bit as intolerant as our parents were. Perhaps we were ALWAYS intolerant, I don't know. I don't think so. But certainly by 1985, 1990 we had become as intolerant of out-of-the-mainstream values as we ever were; it was just that different values were out of the mainstream.
7

Lots of insight.  Thinking of Merle Haggard's song, and the perceived need to toughen boys up, I suggest we study the popular songs regarding on Father/Son relationships (or more aptly, father/son abandonment songs): compare and contrast Johnny Cash's A Boy Named Sue with Everclear's Father of Mine.

8

I can't get drawn into a long, complex discussion here, but as a '60's generation reader of history I think that the generations that start with the Baby Boomers, those who AS YET have no real experience of economic disaster or a truly threatening global war, those who have been insulated from the threat of weapons of global destruction, may find that the world is in fact much more like what their predecessors thought it was than what they think it is. They may yet have occasion to find out. Historically speaking, we are spoiled brats who live like kings of old and still throw tantrums and complain. We can't help it. We don't know any different. But give history a chance. It has a way of breaking in on people. 

(Edited to add: I acknowledge, though, that the the mold-breaking spirit of the Baby Boomers and those that came afterward has brought some positive and needed change along with the destructive elements it introduced. When tradition becomes so ossified that it becomes needlessly stifling, then it's survival value is overshadowed. Look at the books and movies of the 1950's. Even the WW2 generation wanted to go on a hiatus from history and party after their long ordeal.)

9

Just so happens John Keegan's marvelous book "The First World War" sits aside my desk next in line for a reread. Great comments, Griz. The  paradigm shifting that occurred from the the Napoleonic Wars through the American Civil War to World Wars One and Two is at the same time fascinating and horrifying. 

The War To End All Wars of course saw the first introductions in large scale war of the aeroplane, the tank , and the steel capital ship. All would prove transformative. 

Re: Numerology. We can't completely discount the possibility that there are certain numerical schemes "baked into" the physical universe and/or human history, or even providentially superintended by a Divine Being as signposts, but most examples I have seen are arbitrary (and sometimes forced!) creations or superficial coincidences that say more about our penchant for marking significance in our lives and in history than about any compelling reality. They also put on display the brilliance of some people for finding them. The trouble usually crops up when it becomes clear that someone is trying to squeeze the square peg of reality into their preconceived, neat and tidy round hole system. 

Either I didn't read the "License Plate" article correctly or it contains it's own refutation. 

10

If you are a military history fan, I can't recommend Hardcore History enough. It's really a staggeringly interesting podcast. Carlin is a great story teller and the five part WWI series clocks in at over 10 hours in total, kind of an audio book really. Great for the car, I've found. He tends to focus on life for the common soldier or citizen within the context. His business model is great - things are free for about a year and then get packaged behind the paywall after that. Lots of people give him a "buck a show", just because they are so well done. 

His Mogol series "Wrath of the Khans" and his Rome-Carthage series "Punic Nightmares" are also head shakingly great. 

12
GLS's picture

GLS

Okay, but why can't Elias perform in AAA? To me, it's a legit question if his success at the ML level is illusory. I can understand almost any pitcher having some trouble in the PCL where many of the home ballparks are launching pads. But a ML-quality pitcher should be able to adjust to it. At the end of the day, the hitters in the PCL simply aren't as good.

13

When a guy struggles to go four or five innings per start in AAA and his ERA since his last demotion is over 8, why would you promote him to the major league squad? I mean, he's not entitled to the job is he? Doesn't he have to earn that promotion through performance? I don't know what's going on with Elias but there is a good chance that Nuno is just a better SP than he is right now. I certainly wouldn't dump the guy and Lloyd's comments about him aren't probably going to help him out but he said similar things about Walker last year and that didn't hurt him at all. 

14

But I'm trying to imagine Pete Carroll making a pointed-and-public announcement that he doesn't want Percy Harvin on his roster because he's trying to get some real Seahawks into the locker room?

You could also argue that Elias 'earned' the job when he won 10 games as a rookie.  The M's are eager enough to let an Austin Jackson slug .260 for them -- no rest days -- because of "the back of his baseball card."

But yeah.  Nobody here is dying to see Roenis Elias pitch for a team playin' out the string, that's for sure.

15
GLS's picture

GLS

Much better to just say nothing in that situation, or even something innocuous like "the organization wants to see what Nuno can do as a starter". 

16

Edgar Martinez (maybe... TopCat was adamant)

Ivan Rodriguez (roids... Canseco)

Rafael Palmeiro (roids... Mitchell Report)

Manny Ramirez (roids... Suspended by MLB)

David Ortiz (roids... Reported positive in 2003)

Nelson Cruz (roids... Biogenesis)

A-Rod (roids... Biogenesis)

Juan Gonzalez (roids... Canseco, Mitchell Report)

Miguel Tejada (roids... Mitchell Report)

The only two names that shake out clean from the last 25 years of Latin players is Vladimir Guerrero and barely, Albert Pujols.

17

That's the idea I was groping for.  Thanks Ice.

In which case, Cruz' after-effects might last him a while yet.  We talked about that.

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